GOP Good Midterms 1NC Shell

ENDI 20101

File Name

ENDI 2010 Midterms DA Supplement Index

***Dems Good Uniqueness***

Dems Will Keep Majority Now

***Dems Bad/GOP Good Uniqueness***

GOP Will Retake House Of Reps Now

***Links for Dems Bad/GOP Good Midterms***

Generic Link – Public Popularity

Generic Link – Liberal Democratic Base

Generic Link – Progressive Millennials

Generic Link – Perceived Budgetary Savings

Generic Link – Unilateral Executive Action

Generic Link—Unilateral Executive Action

Generic LInk—Foreign Policy Victories

Generic Link – Executive/Legislative Accomplishments

Link – Afghanistan

Link – Kuwait

Link – Iraq

Link – South Korea

***Links for Dems Good Midterms***

Generic Link—Soft on National Security

Generic Link—Domestic Focus Key to Dems

Generic Link—US Foreign Policy Establishment

Link – Afghanistan

Link – South Korea

Link – Japan

***Generally Important Internal Links***

Internal Link—Dems Get Blame/Credit

Internal LInk—Dems Get Blame/Credit

Internal Link—Dems Get Blame/Credit

Internal Link – Obama Key to Cong Dems

Internal Link—Obama Key to Cong Dems

Internal Link – Foreign Policy Key

Internal Link—Foreign Policy Key

Internal Link—Turnout Key

***Answers to Common AFF Arguments***

A2 Elections Too Far Away

A2 Can’t Predict Elections

A2 Plan Can’t Affect the Midterms

ENDI 2010 Midterms DA Supplement Index

***GOP Good/Dems Bad Midterms DA***

GOP Good Midterms—1NC Shell

2NC Econ Recession Impact Overview

Econ Turns Prolif/Every Impact

Econ Turns Prolif (Rogues)

Econ Turns Accidental Launch

Econ Turns Modeling

Econ Turns Heg

Econ Turns Terrorism

Econ Turns Asian Stability

Econ Turns US/China Cooperation

Econ Turns Russia

Divided Government Good—Key to Gridlock

Gridlock Key to Economy

Divided Government Good—Key to Economy

Divided Government Good—Solves Deficit

Deficits Impact

Divided Government Good—Judicial Review Module

Divided Gov Key to Indy Judicial Review

US Judicial Review = Modeled Globally

Divided Gov Good—US Interventionism Bad Impact Module

BioTerror Impact Extension

Divided Government Solves US Interventionism

Divided Government Good—Free Trade Impact Module

Divided Government Key to Free Trade

GOP Control Good—South Korea FTA Module

GOP Control Good—GOP Win Key to Korea FTA

Korea FTA Key to US Leadership

Korea FTA Key to US Leadership/Econ/Korea Stability

GOP Control Good—Korea FTA Key to Alliance

US-SK Alliance Good Impacts

GOP Control Good—Peace Process Bad impact Module

GOP Control Good—Stops Peace Process

Peace Process Bad Impacts

A2 Any Peace Process Good Turns

GOP Control Good—Bipartisan Consensus Impact Module

Divided Gov Key to Bipartisan Governance

Dem Control Bad—US Hegemony Module

Dem Control Bad—Tax INcreases Module

Dem Control Bad—Tax Increases Kill US Econ

Dem Control Bad—Nuke Policy/Proliferation

ENDI 2010 Midterms DA Supplement Index

Dem Control Bad—Nuke Policy/Proliferation

A2 Gridlock Key to Econ/Solves Deficits

A2 Divided Government Good – GoP Win = Gridlock

A2 Gridlock Key to Economy

A2 Divided Government Good—Key to Judicial Indy/Democ

A2 GOP Control Good—Peace Process Bad

A2 GOP Control Good—Korea FTA

***Dems Good Impact Updates***

Dem Control Good—Key to Cap + Trade

Cap + Trade Good—Key to Competitiveness Module

Dem Control Good—Free Trade Good Module

Dem Control Good—Free Trade

Dem Control Good—Crisis Response Module

Gridlock Hurts Crisis Response

Dem Control Good—Immigration Reform Module

Dem Control Good—Key to Immigration REform

Immigration Reform Key to War on Terrorism

Immigration Reform Key to US Economy

Dem Control Good—Health Care Reform Module

Dem Control Good—Health Care Reform

Health Care Reform Key to US Econ

Health Care Reform Key to US Hum Rts Cred

Health Care Reform Key to US Auto Industry

Health Care Reform Key to Democracy

Health Care Solves Disease Epidemics

Health Care Reform Key to US Leadership

Dem Control Good—DADT Repeal Module

Dem Control Good—Key to DADT Repeal

DADT Repeal Key to REadiness

DADT REpeal Key to Hum Rts Cred/Soft Power

DADT Repeal Key to War on Terror

DADT Repeal Key to Solve Patriarchy

A2 DADT Good—Key to Military STrength

***Generic AFF Answers to ANY Midterms DA***

A2 Dem Control Key to Dem Agenda

Election = Too Far Away/Other Issues Will Affect

A2 Foreign Policy Key to Midterms

A2 Single Issues Can Affect the Midterms

Dems Good Uniqueness

Dems Will Keep Majority Now

Democrats will lose seats – but will still maintain majority

The Economist 7 – 10 [“Waiting to thump the Democrats; The mid-term elections” L/N]

For all these woes, the Democrats could yet hang on. Mr Olsen makes the point that it is rare for a president's party actually to lose Congress in his first term: before the upset of 1994 the only previous such turnaround was when the Republicans lost in 1954 under Eisenhower. The Democrats enjoy stronger local organisation in many districts and, despite having fewer friends on Wall Street these days, are expected to have more money to spend. They have not given up hope of persuading the new voters who helped to elect Mr Obama in 2008 to turn out again; the campaign organisation he built for that election has been kept running, under the new name Organising for America. Chris Van Hollen, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told the Washington Post recently that the party was spending $50m on efforts to galvanise the first-time voters of 2008 to vote again in November. One hope on the Democratic side is that the conservative "tea-party" movement will drive the Republicans too far to the right for the taste of mainstream voters. But there is not much evidence of that in the polling. Indeed, the number of voters telling Gallup's pollsters that the Republicans are too conservative has fallen since 2008 from 43% to 40%, and the proportion who think them about right has grown from 38% to 41%. Meanwhile the share of voters who consider the Democrats "too liberal" has risen from 39% to 49%. That cannot be good news for Ms Pelosi and her anxious colleagues in the House.

GOP won’t win majority—not enough seats will change hands

MSNBC 7 – 12 [“First thoughts: House play”

The GOP’s advantages and disadvantages: But we also can list another four reasons why the GOP won’t win back the House: 1) Unlike in ’94, the Republican Party has a fav/unfav score that's no better (and sometimes event worse) than the Dem Party’s; 2) Unlike in ’94, the GOP isn’t necessarily running on new ideas or even with many new faces; 3) the National Republican Congressional Committee has a HUGE financial disadvantage compared with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and the RNC’s political/fundraising troubles won’t be able to make up the difference; and 4) winning 39 seats is a tall order. After all, when Democrats won back the House in 2006 -- during the height of violence in Iraq and after Hurricane Katrina -- they picked up 30 House seats. The GOP will need almost 10 more than that. One thing that's truly amazing about this cycle, historically: The fact we're headed for a third-straight cycle where more than 20 seats change hands.

GOP won’t take control – Steele hurting republicans

Cost 7 – 6 [Jay is an editor at Real Clear Politics, “Michael Steele Makes the Case for Party Reform”

I've been thinking about this anecdote lately because of Michael Steele, as of this writing still the Chairman of the RNC. His tenure has been an unmitigated disaster, and an embarrassment for a Republican party that stands a decent shot of returning to power in Congress come November. Apparently, the RNC is not going to force Steele out of power - it's just too difficult - and instead unhappy Republicans will redirect money to other outlets, like the Republican Governors Association.So, 2010 is a bit like 1866 in that the Republican party apparatus is disorganized and divided.Although unlike 1866, the disorganization of today is not because of deep divisions within the party on an issue of monumental importance, but because of a man who has managed to capture the chairmanship in an apparent attempt to - as the Daily Show wryly commented last night - run a "ponzi scheme on stupid."The unrepresentativeness of the Republican organization has been a problem in the past. Teddy Roosevelt was likely the choice of Republican voters nationwide, but he lost the Republican nomination in 1912 to William Howard Taft, who controlled the RNC as well as the Southern delegates. These southern delegates did not represent the interests of voting Republicans in the South because, well, there really weren't any voting Southern Republicans back then! Instead, they were more like the "Rotten Boroughs" of old British Parliaments, loyal to Taft because he as President had secured them patronage. So how is it that Michael Steele has been able to wreak all this havoc upon a party that won the support of nearly 60 million Americans in 2008? It goes like this: the state Republican parties elected their RNC members, who elected Michael Steele, who has embarrassed his party. The worst part of this setup is that the party feels its negative effects at exactly the worst time: when it is out of power. Steele's unique brand of nonsense would not have been tolerated when George W. Bush was President because the Commander in Chief also becomes the commander of the party. He essentially captures the RNC and integrates it into his own political organization - just as Barack Obama effectively named Tim Kaine, an early supporter, chair of the DNC. But when the party is out of power, a character like Michael Steele has a shot at gaming this inefficient, outdated organization for the purposes of self-promotion.

Dems Will Keep Majority Now

Dems will lose 25-30 seats in the House, but likely keep control of Congress

Rothenberg 6/23/10 (Stuart, Editor + Publisher @ Rothenberg Political Report, "New 2010 House Ratings,"

In our latest (June 18) issue of the Rothenberg Political Report, we moved two races: the Democratic open seat in Arkansas 2 from Toss-Up/Tilt Republican to Lean Republican and South Dakota Cong. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) from Democrat Favored to Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat.

We're also moving Cong. Chet Edwards (D-TX 17) from Democrat Favored to Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat. Voters know and like Edwards, but they are not, at least at this point, prepared to vote for him again.

Our next full House overview in the middle of next month, so stay tuned for even more changes.

Overall, substantial Republican gains are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen. At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible.

GOP won't win the necessary 39 seats to retake the House—it’s too tall of an order

Rothenberg 7/12/10 (Stuart, Editor + Publisher @ Rothenberg Political Report, "NBC's First Read Misses A Key Point,"

In looking at the reasons why Republicans might win the House in November, as well as why they might not, NBC’s First Read made the following point: “winning 39 seats is a tall order. After all, when Democrats won back the House in 2006 -- during the height of violence in Iraq and after Hurricane Katrina -- they picked up 30 House seats. The GOP will need almost 10 more than that.”

The numbers are right, but they lack context and, therefore, are misleading.

Yes, taking over 42 or 43 Democratic-held districts is a challenge (some GOP seats are likely to fall in November, increasing the number of Republican victories needed to take over the House), and those are big numbers historically. But First Read missed a crucial point: A party’s chances of winning House seats depends on a number of things, not the least of which is where it starts in an election cycle.

TEA PARTY will crush GOP senate hopes in the midterms

Halperin 7 – 12 [Mark, “How the Tea Party May Hurt GOP Senate Prospects

The Tea Party may be the best thing that has happened to the Republican Party since Barack Obama got elected President. Its members, fed up and fired up, have sacrificed their time and personal pursuits to try to alter the direction of the government and effect real change. Much like the movement that helped propel Obama to the White House, the Tea Party has challenged the establishment and injected passion into politics. But now it could cost Republicans key Senate seats in November. These dual truths spotlight the state of America's two major political parties as the country heads into the midterms, examines Obama's first two years in office and looks beyond to 2012. There are two significant differences between Obama's grass-roots upswell and the rise of the Tea Party adherents. First, Obama attracted people across a wide swath of the political spectrum, from the far left to just right of center; the Tea Party is almost exclusively hard right. Second, the Obamans were insurgent in their mind-set but downright establishment in their technology, organization, fundraising and ability to use the existing rules to beat the power players at their own game. For all its energy, the Tea Party has not had the chance to demonstrate the same sustained capacity for winning methodology and follow-through. With their unpredictable styles and imprudent mouths, the Tea Party–favored candidates, so dominant in the primaries, have put their general contests in peril at an especially critical time — when Republicans need to net 10 seats in order to win back control of the chamber. The Tea Party may display an admirable drive, but it is an indisputable reality that the same purity of views that has allowed the movement to dominate many primaries leaves the GOP vulnerable in November.

***Dems Bad/GOP Good Uniqueness***

GOP Will Retake House Of Reps Now

GOP will retake the House—the Republican leadership is confident

Matt DeLong 7/12/10 (Staff Writer for the Washington Post,

House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) boldly predicted his party will retake control of the House of Representativesduring an appearance Monday on CNBC. "I think we're going to retake the House, as Mr. Gibbs suggested yesterday from the White House." Cantor said."That's going to change the dynamic for sure." He later added:"When we regain the House, because I do think that we'll retake the majority, the president will have to deal with us."1"there's no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control." Though he is angling to succeed Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) as House speaker, House Minority Leader John Boehner's (R-Ohio) recent midterm predictions have been a bit more reserved than those of his lieutenant. In aninterview last month with the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) stopped short of pledging to take control of the House. Several days later, Boehner told The Post's Dan Balzthat there is a "great opportunity" for the GOP in November, but the party will face an "uphill battle."

GOP will retake the House—Democratic efforts to pass bills before November proves

John Fund 7/9/10 (Political journalist for the WSJ,

Democratic House members are so worried about the fall elections they're leaving Washington on July 30, a full week earlier than normal—and they won't return until mid-September. Members gulped when National Journal's Charlie Cook, the Beltway's leading political handicapper, predicted last month "the House is gone," meaning a GOP takeover.He thinks Democrats will hold the Senate, but with a significantly reduced majority. The rush to recess gives Democrats little time to pass any major laws.That's why there have been signs in recent weeks that party leaders are planning an ambitious, lame-duck session to muscle through bills in December they don't want to defend before November.Retiring or defeated members of Congress would then be able to vote for sweeping legislation without any fear of voter retaliation. "I've got lots of things I want to do" in a lame duck, Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D., W. Va.) told reporters in mid June. North Dakota's Kent Conrad, chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, wants a lame-duck session to act on the recommendations of President Obama's deficit commission, which is due to report on Dec. 1. "It could be a huge deal," he told Roll Call last month."We could get the country on a sound long-term fiscal path." By which he undoubtedly means new taxes in exchange for extending some, but not all, of the Bush-era tax reductions that will expire at the end of the year.In the House, Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva, co-chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told reporters last month that for bills like "card check"—the measure to curb secret-ballot union elections—"the lame duck would be the last chance, quite honestly, for the foreseeable future."