Giving the Future a Nudge

Mike Davenport

Future

Future thought is not the future until some time in the future, when they look back at the past they see that thought as the future. We are at the cusp of the future where all we have to do is help people understand what the future holds.

· With broadband networks that are universal comes the long awaited promise of convergence of distance communication.

· If the age of telephony started a revolution of communication where the average person was able to communicate immediately over long distances with ease

· Broad band networks will bring the next revolution in communication and data transfer.

· The telephone system was not widely accepted until the process was simple and wide ranging access

· Broad band network will not be widely accessed until it is simple and accessible to a significant population.

That being said let us look at the practicality if implementing Broad Band networks and the resultant platform for us to deliver distant education effectively and to enrich more traditional forms of education.

· Few if any networks will be built for the purpose of distance education.

o It is too costly a process to have a dedicated network for education purposes.

o We will have to piggy back on other applications such as private enterprise, government and non government enterprise

· It is clear that there are two aspects of successful Broad Band networks.

o Profitability

o Efficiency

· As a rule the education enterprise is a conservative one

o Because the cost of education is so high there are few dollars to “experiment” with new technology.

o We tend to follow rather than lead

Given that we in this room are the converted. We can see the promise. We know the opportunities.

· I have been attending this conference for several years and I have heard and seen bright ideas, promising experiments and committed people.

· In most cases we are talking about the future or small scale initiatives.

· The people who can make this happen are not seeing what we are seeing.

· These are the people who plot the strategies of the telcos.

· They are government decision makers and others that can make broadband universally available.

Let me briefly tell you my story.

I was a superintendent of schools with the same problems as superintendents any where. We needed to balance the books, improve achievement and attract and retain the best teachers possible. It was only through my relationship with my friend and colleague, Craig Montgomerie, which it became clear my fundamental goals might be satisfied by using this technology. Together and with a great deal of help from others, we built RACOL.

To build RACOL we needed sufficient resources not only to acquire the hardware but also to train the people who would use it. The resources had to come from somewhere else than our regular funding. Some of the money to do this project came from research grants. The money to build it came from the provincial fund that builds classroom. Indeed the project took the funds requited to build 3 or 4 classrooms. This money was hard to get and involved selling the project to politicians and government officials. In addition the jurisdiction had to invest a great deal of human resources in the project.

We had to sell the project to government, to the Board, to our staff, students and parents.

I contend that if we are to expand distance education using Broad Band then we must be better sales people

· We need to work with other sectors such as health, municipalities and other elements of the public and private sectors to create the demand.

· We need to work with Telcos to show them the potential profit and their contribution to society.

· We need to work with governments to create environments where the Telcos recognize the opportunities and where governments can see opportunities that will improve their business.

· We need to work with teachers and their unions to demonstrate that this is not a method of downsizing human resources.

We need to get the message out.

The first message for success of this enterprise, while technologically broad band might be very complex; its success is in its simplicity. The system must be:

· Intuitive

· Little more complicated than operating the telephone

· Interoperable

· Little or no technical support needed

· Multi platform

The second message is that it must be capable of accomplishing the tasks that will meet the demands some of which have not been articulated yet but that the telcos see a potential profit.

· Multipoint to multipoint video that is equal to or better than the accepted standard (television.)

· Mass data transfer and storage

· Deal with robotics and distant manipulation of equipment and protocols

· High definition Video with Dolby digital sound. (At least equal to DVD quality)

· Support virtual supercomputing

Clearly it must be able to all it is asked to do.

· The third message is that it must show profitability.

· Profitability is based on two directions:

o sales to the government(s) and

o Sales to the private sector.

· Government is the key because their demand will transverse huge areas and will offer a multiplicity of services.

· I believe government will be the foundation of most broadband business plans.

o Networks will be structured in a P3 format (private/public partnerships).

o Broadband network is an essential need if Countries are to succeed in the Knowledge.

o They are necessary infrastructure for all government jurisdictions.

o The government itself has huge needs in broadband computing. Areas such as agriculture; internal communications; health; education; defense; the legal system; research and more are will demanding access to broad band computing.

· Demand from the private sector has only begun.

o Largely data transfer is necessary for the operation of business;

· The potential of a broadband network that is virtually universal has only begun to be explored.

o Centralized operation will save money, manpower and improve profitability.

o Improved telephony; video telephony and easy data transfer will affect how and where business is done.

o The potential for collaborative research and the entertainment industry have not been widely explored.

Simply put, we in the education sector must partner with other sectors, with governments and private enterprise to develop broadband networks. For the most part Presidents and premiers either do not understand what we are talking about or see it as a low priority. Telcos tend to look mostly at the telephony market. School superintendents and principals are to busy fighting budget short falls to see the potential. In short we all must become sales people.

This brings us to the challenge to the telcos, “Work and listen to us because while we may not be the source of profit and growth, we are the vanguard of it. What we devise; what we develop; what we dream of are applicable to business and government which is profitable.