MEMORANDUM

To:George Soros

From: Iskra Kirova,Bram Dijkstra, Costanza Hermanin, Open Society European Policy Institute (OSEPI)

Re: Meeting with Mark Rutte, Prime Minister of the Netherlands

Date: XXXJanuary 2016

Key Discussion Points

  1. Dutch referendum on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement
  1. While the referendum on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement is technically non-binding and of consultative nature, a NO vote will be at best politically damaging, and at worst force reconsideration and repeat ratification of the agreement. The timing of the referendum on 6 April 2016, right in the middle of the Dutch EU presidency, will compound the symbolic impact.
  1. On 7 January 2016, Prime Minister Rutte officially announced that his government will actively campaign for a YES vote.
  1. OSF (through OSIFE and IRF) will lend its support for a strong YES campaign and invest substantial resources.
  1. Ask the Prime Minister’s assessment of the likely outcome of the referendum. How would the government respond in the eventuality of a NO vote?
  1. Discuss areas where OSF’s support for the YES campaign would be most useful and how we can cooperate with the government in this effort.
  1. ACP-EU Partnership Post 2020
  1. Ask how, as the EU prepares for formal negotiations on the future of the ACP-EU Partnership Post 2020 the Dutch Presidency will ensure an open, inclusive and timely discussion with EU and ACP civil society actors.
  1. Revision of the Dublin regulation
  1. Ask whether he thinks that the Dutch Presidency will be able to steer agreement on the revision of the Dublin regulation to allow for a permanent redistribution system for asylum seekers.

Background Information

  1. Dutch Referendum

Ukraine has been unfortunate enough to have its Association Agreement be the first treaty adopted after a new law that allows Dutch citizens to demand non-binding referenda on legislation. This referendum is therefore less about Ukraine and more about the exercise of the Dutch people’s right to vote, and particularly to voice their discontent with EU policies and institutions. The majority of voters are currently undecided but might vote YES if given more information about the agreement.

As of January 2016 the Netherlands holds the 6-month rotating EU Presidency of the Council. During the visit of Commission President Juncker and the College of Commissioners to the Netherlands for the launch of the presidency, Prime Minister Rutteannounced that the whole government backs the agreement and will actively campaign for a YES vote.

Rutte noted that those inclined to vote NO who see this as a stepping stone to EU membership misunderstand the treaty which has nothing to do with accession. Rutte comes from the mildly eurosceptic liberal VVD party in the ruling coalition. The foreign minister, Bert Koenders, from the pro-EU PvdA party, has said the agreement serves Dutch security interests by helping to stabilise the EU’s eastern neighbourhood, and that it is important for both countries’ economies.[IK1]

The treaty has been ratified by the parliament and promulgated by the King. If the Dutch vote NO, the government must “reassess” its decision. It is unclear what would happen in this case, but it is likely that the agreement will be brought back to parliament for reconsideration. The odds for a successful repeat ratification in this climate will be low.

Securing a YES vote is therefore crucial. OSF through OSIFE will fund the YES campaign (in the amount of EUR 300,000) that will lead the activities to support a positive vote. It will cooperate with the Ukrainian community in the Netherlands and civil society in Ukraine. The chief consultant for the campaign, engaged by OSIFE, is already working with the government and the main pro-EU political parties on strategy and messaging.

IRF has been working with Ukrainian civic activists and opinion-drivers to coalesce a robust response that amplifies the campaign with voices from Ukraine. IRF plans to provide financial support to Ukrainian partners for activities (requested upwards of EUR 400,000) and has engaged with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, parliamentarians and businesses.

After completing background research in early January 2016, the YES campaign is expected to develop communications and messaging and launch the public campaign.

  1. Expiry of Cotonou Agreement

The expiry, in 2020, of the Cotonou Agreement provides an opportunity for the EU and the ACP countries (79 countries in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean) to reappraise their relations. Preparations for formal negotiations, due in 2018 at the latest, are a priority of the Netherlands Presidency.The partnership is expected to move from a primarily aid-based one to a more political engagement, but it has become increasingly difficult to mobilize civil society under the umbrella of the ACP.

  1. Revision of Dublin Regulation

The European Commission will issue a proposal to review the Dublin regulation next March. The proposal is likely to encompass a permanent redistribution system of asylum seekers. However, equilibria among EU member states have fundamentally changed after elections in Poland. There is no longer a majority in the Council of the EU to support revision of Dublin. We appreciate the openness of the Dutch Presidency to civil society and would be open to help reaching a consensus on tangible human rights action by the Council.

Meeting Participant Bio

Mark Rutte, the Netherlands – Prime Minister

In October 2010 Mark Rutte was appointed Prime Minister of the Netherlands in the centre-right Rutte-Verhagen government, a controversial coalition of his liberal VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy), and Christian democrats, with the outside support of Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom (PVV). After the collapse of this government, he was reappointed as Prime Minister in the 2012 Rutte-Asscher (Liberal-Labour) coalition government.

Rutte had a career in Unilever, before joining the first and second Balkenende governments as State Secretary for Social Affairs and Employment; and State Secretary for Education, Culture and Science. From 2006-2010 Rutte led the (VVD). Mark Rutte was national chair of the JOVD, the youth organisation of the VVD, from 1988 to 1991, and a member of the VVD party executive from 1993 to 1997.

The Netherlands holds the rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU from January-June 2016.

Memo – PM Mark Rutte – the Netherlands

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[IK1]If really needed, this paragraph could be cut.