EUROSTAT
Directorate A: Statistical information system; Research and data analysis; Technical co-operation with Candidate, Cards and Tacis countries
Unit A-5: Technical co-operation with Candidate, Cards and Tacis countries /
Draft Minutes
Forum “Statistics serve enlargement”
Brussels, 6-7 February 2003
The purpose of the seminar was to make the efforts of the statisticians to serve negotiations with good quality data more visible and to promote the role of statistics in the enlargement process and beyond. The benefits of good quality statistics and adaptation of the statistical systems to new challenges and requirements were emphasised.
Participants: Candidate Countries’ NSIs (Presidents and Heads of international departments), representatives from NSIs from Finland, France and Germany, DG Enlargement, DG Economic and financial affairs, DG Agriculture, DG Regional Policy.
1.The Enlargement process
1.1.Opening
Mr. Franchet (DG of Eurostat) opening the meeting welcomed the participants and explained the purpose of the event. He started with reminding the long co-operation with all the candidate countries and the fact that 10 of them have been accepted last December for accession in 2004, while for the three remaining CCs there are concrete schedules for further work with the EU. This success is the result of an early start in the adoption by the Candidate Countries of the acquis and joint efforts of the Candidate Countries, Member States and Eurostat to improve the statistical methodology. Chapter 12 ‘Statistics’ was closed for all 12 screened Candidate Countries without derogation, which indicates good quality of work. This is illustrated with the presentations to be made in the further part of the seminar. As of 1 May 2004 the 10 acceding countries will face new challenges that include full integration into the structures of the European Statistical System and the adoption of the European Quality Charter. The need for good quality statistics will increase. The seminar is an occasion to present the achievements and to reflect on the orientation of future activities.
1.2.The enlargement process “Results and perspectives”
Mr. Guyader (DG Enlargement) presented briefly the results and perspectives of the enlargement process focusing on the success of the Copenhagen Summit in December 2002 at which several problematic issues have been agreed. Among them are the financial arrangements concerning enlargement, direct payments for farmers, establishing the date of possible accession for Romania and Bulgaria and a possible starting date for negotiations with Turkey. The monitoring of performance of all the Candidate Countries is to be maintained and six months before accession the Commission will present a comprehensive report on readiness. At the same time preparations are made for the recruitment of staff form the acceding countries for the EU institutions that will be handled by the newly established recruitment office (EPSO).
1.3.Role of Statistics in the enlargement process
Mr. Wurm (Eurostat, Unit A5) spoke about the role of statistics in the enlargement process concentrating on the experience related to the screening exercise for Chapter 12 and support for other negotiations chapters with statistics. He emphasised that the confidence in statistical information about the Candidate Countries is widespread and consequently over the last years the negotiations were served with statistics as a support instrument but not about statistics. Ensuring the pre-accession support is the task of the whole European Statistical System.
Summing up the discussion under this agenda item Mr. Franchet (DG of Eurostat) emphasised that the comparative advantage of statistics lies in strong institutional building, existence of basic monitoring infrastructure and gradual integration of the Candidate Countries into the EU decision process. The Acceding Countries already are or will be soon participating in all relevant Committees including the Statistical Programme Committee (SPC).
2.Use of Statistics in negotiations
2.1.Control over economic performance and the implementation of Maastricht criteria in the Candidate Countries and the use of statistics for their monitoring
Mr. Noë (DG Economic and Financial Affairs) presented briefly the procedures for the control over economic performance and the implementation of Maastricht criteria in the Candidate Countries and the use of statistics for their monitoring. He concentrated on the technical issues related to the availability and quality of the Harmonised Consumer Price Index (HICP), inflation rates, price stability, long-term interest rates and long-term movement bonds. He emphasised that further harmonisation in this area is needed to obtain good quality and trustworthy information required for monitoring. As a proof of the need for further improvements he mentioned that currently Eurostat produces only interim HICP for the Candidate Countries. Mr. Franchet (Eurostat) reacting to that presentation explained that the term ‘interim’ in that case means that Eurostat is still validating some methodology and thus prefers to use the term till the procedure is finalised. Eurostat has a programme for quality that is currently being implemented.
Mr. Morisset (DG Economic and Financial Affairs) discussed the use of statistics for monitoring Maastricht fiscal criteria such as general government deficit. He emphasised that it is important that the NSIs provide the information that is accurate, on time and according to the ESA methodology. Better and more harmonised statistics is needed to follow the operational aspects of the fiscal surveillance procedure. He was pleased to inform that the annual notification procedure applied for the last three years shows that progress has been made. He also mentioned that with accession just ahead still closer co-operation is needed and improvements are still possible in such complex issues as debt and deficit, full national accounts, medium-term fiscal scenarios and excessive deficit procedures.
Mr. Camilleri (Malta) in the absence of Mr. Philippides (Cyprus) and on his behalf presented the Cypriot contribution to the discussion on this item. The paper describes how the NSI of Cyprus found itself during the accession procedure involved in the compilation of all indicators needed for monitoring compliance with Maastrict Criteria. Especially the deficit and debt statistics were for long a task of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank. The need for NSI to play a leading role in these indicators originated from the obligation to implement fully the ESA95 as well as the necessity for showing that figures are independently compiled. The extra burden of work implies additional resources in the NSI’s.
2.2.Use of statistics for defining and monitoring agriculture policy
Mr. Bascou (DG Agriculture) made a presentation on the use of statistics for defining and monitoring agricultural policy. He spoke about the development of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), including its beginnings, the crisis years, the 1992 reform and agenda 2000 and future perspectives of the CAP. The key message of the presentation was the need to maintain productivity, compatibility and sustainability of the system. This could be obtained only with good quality statistical data. The Candidate Countries should be ready to provide them. It is true that a lot of detailed data is needed for agricultural policy and the demand will still increase in the future. The Candidate Countries should be aware of that and should be prepared to satisfy the demand.
Mr. Witkowski (Poland) presented the Polish experience in the use of statistics for the negotiations on the agriculture. He emphasised that the negotiations provided a challenge for statistics as the data concerned not only typical agricultural products, but also broader aspects of agricultural production such as food safety, rural development and environmental concerns. The information provided was generated from the regular surveys and the agricultural censuses, but also from the experts’ estimations to satisfy the demand and facilitate the negotiations. He concluded with a statement that not only statistics serve enlargement, but also the enlargement serves statistics, making it more visible, triggering development of the methodology and statistical analysis and being more widely used.
Referring to both presentations Mr. Franchet (Eurostat) indicated that the demand for agricultural data is very high and attempts are made to rationalise the requirements. Programmes such as Agriflex and TAPAS could serve as examples of such attempts. However, taking the complexity of the area this is a difficult task. Mr. Banovec (Slovenia) and Mr. Mellár (Hungary) raised the issue of the use of administrative records in agricultural statistics and the discrepancy between the information provided by statistical surveys and other administrative sources. A proposal to organise a seminar to discuss those issues in detail was made in this context.
Reference was also made to the precedent of Community support to Member States and to Candidate Countries in implementing national restructuring programmes for agricultural statistics which were designed to facilitate the adaptation of national infrastructures to meet Community obligations in an efficient and cost effective manner
2.3.Use of statistics in the preparations for Structural Funds in the Candidate Countries
Mr. Brooke (DG Regional policy) made a brief presentation on the use of statistics in the preparations for Structural Funds in the Candidate Countries. He emphasised that the current enlargement is believed to bring a dramatic effect upon disparities in the EU. Data are needed to better understand the new members that experienced profound changes in the last 15 years. Structural changes continue and it is predicted that they will be concentrated in agriculture and heavy industry. Other challenges include globalisation, knowledge-based economy, demographic structure and sustainable development. It is commonly accepted that with Enlargement the regional policy focus will shift to the East. A cohesion report on the progress made will be produced every three years. Both the policy making and monitoring progress rely significantly on regional statistics. The acquis is binding the countries to provide regional data at NUTS 2 level for GDP/per capita in PPS, harmonised unemployment and other environmental, social and economic indicators for analysis. The Candidate Countries have been requested to provide a National Development Plan, which has already been submitted by one country. The need for more data is anticipated for policy development and in this context the co-operation with Eurostat is valued.
The questions from the audience to this point concerned the problem of an adequate level of detail for particular data sets taking into account the specific nature of the analysed problem and the size of the country.
3.Statistics in the Enlargement Process
This and the following sessions were chaired by Mr. Pedor Diaz Munoz, the new Director of Directorate A at Eurostat. Mr. Diaz Munoz briefly introduced himself and opened the meeting for presentations and discussions.
3.1.Description of statistical systems in the Candidate Countries based on the Global assessments and the publication “Enlarging the EU statistical network”
Mr. Krüger (Eurostat, Unit A5) presented the activities related to the monitoring of compliance with the acquis and of the administrative capacity of the national statistical systems. During the period 1999-2002 all the Candidate Countries underwent so-called global assessments, conducted by teams of two experts from the Member States. The reports produced provided a detailed description on the functioning of the national statistical systems. The summary of the findings were published in publication “Enlarging the EU statistical network” that is appreciated by its users.
Ms. Vihavainen (Finland) acting as an expert in three assessment teams described the experience made during these assignments. The overall result was very positive and constituted a relevant learning experience both for the beneficiary and assessing countries. The applied methods worked well while the possible improvements for future could concern developing more standardised indicators, better focus on sustainability of the systems and quality issues.
Mr. Tranap (France) analysed the findings of the assessments discussing such indicators as number of statisticians per 10 000 inhabitants, percentage of statistical expenses of GDP and provided favourable conclusions on the level of statistical competencies and capacity of the statistical systems of the Candidate Countries.
3.2.Compliance measurement in statistics and some of its results
Mr. Wild (Eurostat, Unit A5) presented the issues related to monitoring compliance with the acquis communautaire in statistics concentrating on the Compliance Database used for that purpose. The tool makes it possible for the Candidate Countries and Eurostat to follow the changes in the acquis and the progress made by the CCs in the harmonisation of their systems with the EU requirements in statistics.
Ms. Chisinevshi (Romania) provided a national perspective to the compliance monitoring describing the Romanian experience in maintaining and updating the monitoring system.
The comments from the audience concerned the future of the CDB tool after the accession and the possibility of receiving more feedback from the Eurostat units on the information provided by the CCs.
3.3.Success story from the co-operation programmes
Ms. Lapeniene (Lithuania) presented the Lithuanian experience in the implementation of co-operation programmes. It is a success story due to such factors as commitments of both the recipients and providers of the assistance, well-targeted objectives and relevance for the NSI. There is a need to continue the co-operation and maintain sustainability of the results.
Mr. Drapal (Czech Republic) reported on the co-operation targeted to harmonise and improve the business register of the CZSO, mainly with INSEE France and CBS of the Netherlands as well as within the framework of Eurostat pilot projects and the national PHARE programme 1999.
Ms. Moore (Germany) presented the experience of an assistance provided in the twinning exercise between Poland and Germany that is another example of a success story. She explained that twinning is a good and successful co-operation mechanism if certain conditions are fulfilled. One of those is the commitment taken by the Member State, which is a demanding task. Twinning provides a good possibility to involve both partners in the design of the project and therefore, to develop real ownership of its outputs. It also benefits both partners in terms of learning from each other. However, twinning could even gain if the administrative procedures were less heavy for the Member State.
In the discussion afterwards several representatives mentioned the positive experiences made during twinning projects but also within other forms of co-operation. For twinning it was also mentioned that although being a successful instrument it is not always easy and sometimes even impossible to find twinning partners in the Member States.
4.Challenges for Statistics in the future
4.1.Specific outlook into future activities and challenges for the countries joining the EU at a later stage
Mr. Özgüven (Turkey) delivered a presentation on a specific outlook into future activities and challenges for the countries joining the EU at a later stage. He provided both the general perspective on the future of statistics mentioning the effects of globalisation, sustainable development and need for new statistical indicators, Economic and Monetary Union, the Enlargement of the Union and the need for user-friendly approaches. He emphasised the need for increasing active co-operation between the countries joining later, focusing on quality aspects of statistics, promoting personnel qualities and keeping pace with the changes in the EU.
4.2.Increasing demands for statistics in an enlarged Europe
Mr. Salmi (Head of Cabinet) spoke about the increasing demands for statistics in an enlarged Europe from the point of view of decision-makers in the Commission. He concentrated on the role of statistics in the daily working of the Commission for preparation of new legislation and monitoring of its implementation. Good quality statistics is also increasingly needed for benchmarking and impact assessment to base judgements on facts. For policy making the crucial factor is the timeliness of data. Examples were given of the demand for data in relation to key Commission policy areas and economic policy. The increase in the demand for data after accession is anticipated and the Candidate Countries have to face the challenge.
5.Discussion on the Strategy for statistical co-operation for the period 2003-2006
Mrs. Junker (Eurostat, Unit A5) introduced the draft strategy paper by outlining some changes to be made and some of the subjects needing further in-depth discussion. The latter mainly concerned the objectives of the assistance programmes, the budgets, monitoring tools and the meeting structure. After a lively discussion it was agreed that the difference between the acceding and the remaining candidate countries would be made more visible in the strategy, the objectives would be arranged due to their order of priority, an information tool like the compliance database would be kept for monitoring purposes and the meeting structure needs to be kept flexible for adjusting it to upcoming needs. The strategy will be revised by Eurostat and presented to the MGSC in March 2003. Final approval will be sought by April son as to use the strategy for backing requests for future assistance programmes.
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