10-10-11
Following are analyst estimates for 2011/12 U.S. Corn, Soybean and wheat ending stocks. USDA will release the report on Wednesday Oct 12, 2011. Production is in billion bushels, Yield in bushels/acre.
SourceWheatCornSoybeans
Average Trade estimate0.7330.8060.183
Highest trade estimate0.8050.9890.255
Lowest trade estimate0.6630.6460.153
USDA Sept. 11 estimate0.7610.6720.165
U.S. CommoditiesN/A0.8010.226
ABN Amro0.7500.9800.190
ADM Investor Svcs0.7520.9030.255
AgriVisor0.7140.9890.176
Allendale Inc.0.7280.8260.183
Citigroup0.7760.7940.200
Country Hedging0.7090.8480.174
Doane Advisory Svcs0.7570.6900.155
Farm Futures0.6740.6460.162
Global Commodity Analytics0.6850.8150.166
Goldman SachsN/A0.814N/A
Jefferies Bache0.6920.6590.165
Kropf Love Consulting0.7320.7500.176
The Linn Group0.6630.7990.198
McKeany-Flavell0.7000.9000.190
Macquarie Bank Ltd0.7390.8580.169
Newedge USA Inc0.8050.6750.180
Northstar Commodities0.7300.8650.230
North America Risk Mgmt0.7470.8480.179
PFG Best0.7700.7300.160
R. J. O’Brien0.7820.8630.153
Traders GroupInc.0.7600.6800.165
The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of bushels for U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks for the 2009-10 marketing year. The USDA is scheduled to release updated U.S. supply and demand tables at 7:30 a.m CDT Wed. Oct 12, 2011
Corn and Soybean Production 2011/12
Estimates are in billion bushels
Total Production
CornAvg SoybeansAvg
Yldyld
Average Trade Estimate12.471148.73.08141.8
Highest Trade Estimate12.690150.93.16242.9
Lowest Trade Estimate12.001145.22.93040.0
USDA September Estimate12.497148.13.08541.8
USDA 2010 Final12.447152.83.32943.5
CornSoybean
ProductionYieldProductionYield
US Commodities, Des Moines12.568149.83.16242.9
ABN Amro12.500150.03.12142.3
ADM Investor Services12.585150.03.09142.0
Agrivisor12.690150.93.11642.1
Allendale Inc.12.558149.73.08341.9
Citigroup12.560149.43.10142.0
Commodity Weather Group12.370147.32.99040.7
Michael Cordonnier12.340147.02.93040.0
Country Hedging12.589150.33.09942.1
Cropcast Weather12.001145.22.95040.5
Doane Advisory12.342148.03.05041.5
Farm Futures12.498149.03.09041.8
Global Commodity Analytics12.520148.63.09042.1
Goldman Sachs12.459148.5N/AN/A
Intl FC Stone12.553148.73.15742.8
Jeffries Bache12.377147.23.05541.4
Kropf & Love Consulting12.417148.03.07241.8
The Linn Group12.371148.93.08642.2
Macquarie Securities12.500148.83.8541.8
McKeany-Flavell12.580149.03.14042.5
Newedge12.404148.03.08141.7
North America Risk Mgmt12.510149.33.14042.3
Northstar Commodities12.590149.83.13642.5
Traders Group Inc12.550149.03.10042.0
PFG Best12.395148.03.09541.9
RJ O’Brien12.374147.33.05241.4
Informa Economics12.519149.53.08741.8
10-3-11
Corn Mature - Selected States
[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2010 corn acreage]
------
: Week ending :
:------:
State : October 2, :September 25,: October 2, : 2006-2010
: 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average
------
: percent
:
Colorado ...... : 76 31 66 72
Illinois ...... : 98 80 91 79
Indiana ...... : 97 50 65 75
Iowa ...... : 96 80 91 81
Kansas ...... : 97 88 94 91
Kentucky ...... : 99 86 92 95
Michigan ...... : 95 35 47 73
Minnesota ...... : 90 52 80 73
Missouri ...... : 95 94 98 87
Nebraska ...... : 88 52 75 75
North Carolina .: 100 97 98 100
North Dakota ...: 86 42 58 69
Ohio ...... : 89 19 26 71
Pennsylvania ...: 79 36 47 71
South Dakota ...: 82 48 79 72
Tennessee ...... : 100 96 97 97
Texas ...... : 92 88 95 93
Wisconsin ...... : 80 38 57 61
:
18 States ...... : 92 63 79 78
------
Corn Harvested - Selected States
[These 18 States harvested 94% of the 2010 corn acreage]
------
: Week ending :
:------:
State : October 2, :September 25,: October 2, : 2006-2010
: 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average
------
: percent
:
Colorado ...... : 18 1 5 17
Illinois ...... : 72 22 32 36
Indiana ...... : 61 7 10 25
Iowa ...... : 18 5 12 10
Kansas ...... : 67 42 53 48
Kentucky ...... : 89 44 57 62
Michigan ...... : 28 2 3 11
Minnesota ...... : 4 2 6 6
Missouri ...... : 57 50 66 51
Nebraska ...... : 17 6 11 12
North Carolina .: 90 82 87 81
North Dakota ...: 2 - 1 3
Ohio ...... : 34 1 2 13
Pennsylvania ...: 34 3 7 25
South Dakota ...: 6 2 8 8
Tennessee ...... : 96 67 83 77
Texas ...... : 67 69 75 74
Wisconsin ...... : 17 2 5 8
:
18 States ...... : 37 15 21 23
------
- Represents zero.
Corn Condition - Selected States: Week Ending October 2, 2011
[National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2010
planted acreage]
------
State : Very poor : Poor : Fair : Good : Excellent
------
: percent
:
Colorado ...... : 4 8 31 45 12
Illinois ...... : 5 16 37 36 6
Indiana ...... : 9 18 40 28 5
Iowa ...... : 5 10 27 45 13
Kansas ...... : 25 23 26 21 5
Kentucky ...... : 2 7 36 47 8
Michigan ...... : 3 8 26 45 18
Minnesota ...... : 4 11 29 47 9
Missouri ...... : 21 23 26 26 4
Nebraska ...... : 2 6 19 55 18
North Carolina .: 27 26 26 19 2
North Dakota ...: 2 12 28 48 10
Ohio ...... : 4 10 30 44 12
Pennsylvania ...: 6 14 39 33 8
South Dakota ...: 2 8 24 51 15
Tennessee ...... : 4 9 28 49 10
Texas ...... : 33 35 22 10 -
Wisconsin ...... : 2 7 17 50 24
:
18 States ...... : 7 13 28 41 11
:
Previous week ..: 7 13 28 41 11
Previous year ..: 4 9 21 46 20
------
- Represents zero.
Soybeans Dropping Leaves - Selected States
[These 18 States planted 95% of the 2010 soybean acreage]
------
: Week ending :
:------:
State : October 2, :September 25,: October 2, : 2006-2010
: 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average
------
: percent
:
Arkansas ...... : 70 39 49 62
Illinois ...... : 89 61 77 81
Indiana ...... : 94 61 77 85
Iowa ...... : 88 57 82 88
Kansas ...... : 70 46 66 73
Kentucky ...... : 92 57 72 78
Louisiana ...... : 94 88 94 90
Michigan ...... : 95 46 66 83
Minnesota ...... : 96 74 94 95
Mississippi ....: 94 80 89 87
Missouri ...... : 61 39 63 60
Nebraska ...... : 90 47 78 88
North Carolina .: 47 27 34 41
North Dakota ...: 94 86 98 95
Ohio ...... : 94 38 55 91
South Dakota ...: 97 82 96 96
Tennessee ...... : 90 51 68 80
Wisconsin ...... : 86 49 74 83
:
18 States ...... : 87 58 76 83
------
Soybeans Harvested - Selected States
[These 18 States harvested 95% of the 2010 soybean acreage]
------
: Week ending :
:------:
State : October 2, :September 25,: October 2, : 2006-2010
: 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average
------
: percent
:
Arkansas ...... : 41 17 23 31
Illinois ...... : 46 4 12 27
Indiana ...... : 60 3 5 27
Iowa ...... : 34 3 21 30
Kansas ...... : 17 2 16 15
Kentucky ...... : 35 3 10 17
Louisiana ...... : 75 67 80 69
Michigan ...... : 32 - 2 14
Minnesota ...... : 26 3 35 29
Mississippi ....: 75 36 48 65
Missouri ...... : 12 2 11 12
Nebraska ...... : 29 2 20 22
North Carolina .: 4 3 3 2
North Dakota ...: 24 5 43 30
Ohio ...... : 41 - - 22
South Dakota ...: 22 2 30 19
Tennessee ...... : 44 3 14 26
Wisconsin ...... : 20 - 2 12
:
18 States ...... : 34 5 19 25
------
- Represents zero.
Soybean Condition - Selected States: Week Ending October 2, 2011
[National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2010
planted acreage]
------
State : Very poor : Poor : Fair : Good : Excellent
------
: percent
:
Arkansas ...... : 3 17 37 35 8
Illinois ...... : 4 11 35 42 8
Indiana ...... : 7 16 36 35 6
Iowa ...... : 4 8 23 48 17
Kansas ...... : 26 26 22 21 5
Kentucky ...... : 2 9 39 42 8
Louisiana ...... : 5 20 28 43 4
Michigan ...... : 3 7 26 47 17
Minnesota ...... : 3 12 33 43 9
Mississippi ....: 2 6 22 52 18
Missouri ...... : 12 21 30 30 7
Nebraska ...... : 1 3 18 58 20
North Carolina .: 2 9 40 44 5
North Dakota ...: 3 12 29 46 10
Ohio ...... : 2 9 23 50 16
South Dakota ...: 3 10 27 49 11
Tennessee ...... : 4 10 34 47 5
Wisconsin ...... : 2 5 19 50 24
:
18 States ...... : 5 12 29 43 11
:
Previous week ..: 5 13 29 43 10
Previous year ..: 3 9 24 46 18
------
Winter Wheat Planted - Selected States
[These 18 States planted 91% of the 2010 winter wheat acreage]
------
: Week ending :
:------:
State : October 2, :September 25,: October 2, : 2006-2010
: 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average
------
: percent
:
Arkansas ...... : 5 5 9 6
California .....: 5 3 5 9
Colorado ...... : 86 54 81 81
Idaho ...... : 56 31 54 57
Illinois ...... : 18 7 9 13
Indiana ...... : 25 5 7 14
Kansas ...... : 42 20 43 47
Michigan ...... : 36 11 16 31
Missouri ...... : 10 3 8 10
Montana ...... : 60 46 59 71
Nebraska ...... : 79 66 82 80
North Carolina .: 1 1 2 2
Ohio ...... : 27 1 1 18
Oklahoma ...... : 47 11 30 49
Oregon ...... : 52 20 29 49
South Dakota ...: 74 54 72 76
Texas ...... : 51 14 25 49
Washington .....: 84 70 75 76
:
18 States ...... : 52 26 42 53
------
Winter Wheat Emerged - Selected States
[These 18 States planted 91% of the 2010 winter wheat acreage]
------
: Week ending :
:------:
State : October 2, :September 25,: October 2, : 2006-2010
: 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average
------
: percent
:
Arkansas ...... : 1 1 2 1
California .....: - - - 1
Colorado ...... : 42 18 40 45
Idaho ...... : 17 5 17 16
Illinois ...... : 1 2 2 2
Indiana ...... : 3 - 3 2
Kansas ...... : 11 4 13 18
Michigan ...... : - 1 4 5
Missouri ...... : 2 - 2 3
Montana ...... : 16 4 11 21
Nebraska ...... : 41 27 53 44
North Carolina .: - - - -
Ohio ...... : 2 - 1 1
Oklahoma ...... : 21 - 5 21
Oregon ...... : 18 - 10 18
South Dakota ...: 42 13 26 40
Texas ...... : 21 1 4 22
Washington .....: 62 35 58 50
:
18 States ...... : 21 6 16 23
------
- Represents zero.
Pasture and Range Condition - Selected States: Week Ending October 2, 2011
[National pasture and range conditions for selected States are weighted
based on pasture acreage and/or livestock inventories]
------
State : Very poor : Poor : Fair : Good : Excellent
------
: percent
:
Alabama ...... : 11 24 34 29 2
Arizona ...... : 32 22 23 18 5
Arkansas ...... : 25 28 40 7 -
California .....: 20 40 40 - -
Colorado ...... : 18 20 29 25 8
Connecticut ....: - - 43 57 -
Delaware ...... : 10 16 14 59 1
Florida ...... : - 5 26 57 12
Georgia ...... : 18 36 33 12 1
Idaho ...... : 2 17 30 37 14
Illinois ...... : 19 28 31 21 1
Indiana ...... : 10 31 40 18 1
Iowa ...... : 13 22 37 24 4
Kansas ...... : 36 24 23 16 1
Kentucky ...... : 3 13 40 39 5
Louisiana ...... : 19 18 40 21 2
Maine ...... : - 1 25 64 10
Maryland ...... : 2 6 25 52 15
Massachusetts ..: - 15 34 48 3
Michigan ...... : 5 15 31 41 8
Minnesota ...... : 9 19 35 32 5
Mississippi ....: 5 19 33 42 1
Missouri ...... : 23 25 33 18 1
Montana ...... : 9 19 34 31 7
Nebraska ...... : 1 8 24 63 4
Nevada ...... : 1 6 42 45 6
New Hampshire ..: 1 2 39 44 14
New Jersey .....: 5 10 35 45 5
New Mexico .....: 53 28 15 2 2
New York ...... : 4 17 33 37 9
North Carolina .: 6 15 33 45 1
North Dakota ...: 1 6 21 63 9
Ohio ...... : 3 17 28 45 7
Oklahoma ...... : 70 23 6 1 -
Oregon ...... : 19 27 28 23 3
Pennsylvania ...: 5 10 27 49 9
Rhode Island ...: - - 41 59 -
South Carolina .: 9 30 37 24 -
South Dakota ...: 2 10 30 49 9
Tennessee ...... : 5 16 42 35 2
Texas ...... : 82 14 3 1 -
Utah ...... : - 2 16 67 15
Vermont ...... : 8 28 43 15 6
Virginia ...... : 5 7 35 42 11
Washington .....: 8 12 34 37 9
West Virginia ..: - 4 35 58 3
Wisconsin ...... : 4 20 34 39 3
Wyoming ...... : 3 12 26 54 5
:
48 States ...... : 24 19 26 27 4
:
Previous week ..: 23 19 27 26 5
Previous year ..: 8 16 32 37 7
------
- Represents zero.
9-30-11
QUARTERLY STOCKS (billion bushels)(Report date 9/30/11) / 9/1/11 / Avg / High / Low / 6/1/11 / 9/1/10
Corn / 1.128 / 0.964 / 1.050 / 0.835 / 3.670 / 1.708
Soybeans / .215 / 0.225 / 0.240 / 0.202 / 0.619 / 0.151
Wheat / 2.150 / 2.035 / 2.143 / 1.959 / 0.861 / 2.450
Grain Sorghum / .027 / 0.030 / 0.034 / 0.026 / 0.080 / 0.041
SMALL GRAINS SUMMARY (billion bushels) / Actual
2011-2012 Production / 9/30/11 / Avg / High / Low / Aug-11 / 10-11
All Wheat / 2.008 / 2.044 / 2.084 / 2.003 / 2.077 / 2.207
Winter / 1.494 / 1.496 / 1.515 / 1.478 / 1.497 / 1.485
HRW / 0.780 / 0.791 / 0.800 / 0.779 / 0.794 / 1.018
SRW / 0.458 / 0.262 / 0.278 / 0.255 / 0.260 / 0.237
White / 0.256 / 0.239 / 0.268 / 0.233 / 0.234 / 0.229
Spring / 0.462 / 0.493 / 0.531 / 0.457 / 0.522 / 0.616
Durum / 0.052 / 0.054 / 0.060 / 0.047 / 0.057 / 0.106
Released September 30, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Corn Stocks Down 34 Percent from September 2010
Soybean Stocks Up 42 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Down 12 Percent
Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2011 totaled
1.13 billion bushels, down 34 percent from September 1, 2010. Of the total
stocks, 315 million bushels are stored on farms, down 35 percent from a year
earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 813 million bushels, are down 33 percent from a
year ago. The June - August 2011 indicated disappearance is 2.54 billion
bushels, compared with 2.60 billion bushels during the same period last year.
Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2011 totaled
215 million bushels, up 42 percent from September 1, 2010. Soybean stocks
stored on farms totaled 48.5 million bushels, up 37 percent from a year ago.
Off-farm stocks, at 166 million bushels, are up 44 percent from last
September. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2011 totaled 405 million
bushels, down 4 percent from the same period a year earlier.
Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance
data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, the
2010 soybean production is revised down fractionally from the previous
estimate. Harvested area is revised down 6,000 acres. A table with 2010
acreage, yield, and production estimates by State is included on page 17 of
this report.
All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2011 totaled 2.15 billion
bushels, down 12 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at
642 million bushels, down 21 percent from last September. Off-farm stocks, at
1.51 billion bushels, are down 8 percent from a year ago. The
June - August 2011 indicated disappearance is 720 million bushels, down
2 percent from the same period a year earlier.
Durum wheat stocks in all positions on September 1, 2011 totaled 65.2 million
bushels, down 35 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 36.4 million
bushels, are down 49 percent from September 1, 2010. Off-farm stocks totaled
28.8 million bushels, down slightly from a year ago. The June - August 2011
indicated disappearance of 22.1 million bushels is down 45 percent from the
same period a year earlier.
Barley stocks in all positions on September 1, 2011 totaled 174 million
bushels, down 22 percent from September 1, 2010. On-farm stocks are estimated
at 92.4 million bushels, 26 percent below a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at
82.0 million bushels, are 17 percent below September 2010. The
June - August 2011 indicated disappearance is 70.0 million bushels, 3 percent
below the same period a year earlier.
Oats stored in all positions on September 1, 2011 totaled 78.4 million
bushels, 33 percent below the stocks on September 1, 2010. Of the total
stocks on hand, 31.1 million bushels are stored on farms, 33 percent lower
than a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 47.3 million bushels, 33 percent
below the previous year. Indicated disappearance during June - August 2011
totaled 43.2 million bushels, compared with 44.5 million bushels during the
same period a year ago.
All wheat production totaled 2.01 billion bushels in 2011, down 9 percent
from 2010. Grain area totaled 45.7 million acres, down 4 percent from the
previous year. The United States yield is 43.9 bushels per acre, down
2.4 bushels from the previous year's record high but still ranks as the fifth
highest on record. The levels of production and changes from 2010 by type are
winter wheat, 1.49 billion bushels, up 1 percent; other spring wheat,
462 million bushels, down 25 percent; Durum wheat, 51.9 million bushels, down
51 percent.
Oat production is estimated at a record low 54.0 million bushels, down
33 percent from 2010. Yield is estimated at 57.5 bushels per acre, down
6.8 bushels from the previous year. Harvested area, at 940 thousand acres, is
26 percent below last year. This is the smallest acreage harvested for grain
on record, surpassing the previous record low set in 2010.
Barley production is estimated at 155 million bushels, down 14 percent from
2010, and the lowest since 1936. Average yield per acre, at 69.2 bushels, is
down 3.9 bushels from the previous year. Producers seeded 2.56 million acres
in 2011, down 11 percent from last year. This is the lowest planted acreage
on record. Harvested area, at 2.24 million acres, is down 9 percent from
2010, and the lowest level since 1881.
9-28-11
United States Hog Inventory up 1 Percent
Released September 28, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
United States Hog Inventory up 1 Percent
United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2011 was
66.6 million head. This was up 1 percent from September 1, 2010, and up
3 percent from June 1, 2011.
Breeding inventory, at 5.81 million head, was up 1 percent from last year,
and up slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at
60.8 million head, was up 1 percent from last year, and up 3 percent from
last quarter.
The June-August 2011 pig crop, at 29.1 million head, was up 1 percent from
2010 and up 1 percent from 2009. Sows farrowing during this period totaled
2.90 million head, down 1 percent from 2010 and down 2 percent from 2009. The
sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 percent of the breeding
herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high 10.03 for the June-
August 2011 period, compared to 9.81 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size
of operation ranged from 7.50 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 10.10
for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.
United States hog producers intend to have 2.87 million sows farrow during
the September-November 2011 quarter, down slightly from the actual farrowings
during the same period in 2010, and down 1 percent from 2009. Intended
farrowings for December-February 2012, at 2.86 million sows, are up slightly
from 2011, but down 1 percent from 2010.
The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000
head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 46 percent of the total United
States hog inventory, up from 43 percent last year.
Revisions
All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2010 through June 2011
were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and
updated import and export data. Based on the findings of this review, an
adjustment of less than one half of one percent was made to the March 2011
total inventory. An adjustment of one half of one percent was made to the
June 2011 total inventory. An adjustment of less than one half of one percent
was made to the December 2010-February 2011 pig crop.
9-23-11
United States Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent
Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.7 million head on September 1, 2011. The inventory was 5 percent above September 1, 2010. This is the third highest September 1 inventory since the series began in 1996.
Placements in feedlots during August totaled 2.25 million, 1 percent below 2010. Net placements were 2.18 million head. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 715,000, 600-699 pounds were 370,000, 700-799 pounds were 477,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 690,000.
Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 2.05 million, 7 percent above 2010.
Other disappearance totaled 72,000 during August, 53 percent above 2010.
9-22-11
Cold Storage Report
Highlights
Total natural cheese stocks in refrigerated warehouses on August 31, 2011 were down 2 percent from the previous month but up slightly from August 31, 2010.
Butter stocks were down 12 percent from last month but up 7 percent from a year ago.
Total frozen poultry supplies on August 31, 2011 were down 4 percent from the previous month but up 2 percent from a year ago. Total stocks of chicken were down 7 percent from the previous month and down slightly from last year. Total pounds of turkey in freezers were down slightly from last month but up 4 percent from August 31, 2010.
Total frozen fruit stocks were up 11 percent from last month but down 6 percent from a year ago.
Total frozen vegetable stocks were up 21 percent from last month but down 12 percent from a year ago.
Total red meat supplies in freezers were up slightly from the previous month and up 11 percent from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 3 percent from the previous month and up 11 percent from last year. Frozen pork supplies were down 3 percent from the previous month but up 13 percent from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were down 49 percent from last month but up 110 percent from last year.
9-13-11
The Des Moines Register
After scorching summer, consumers may get burned
Smaller corn crop will affect prices;10 bushels knocked off Iowa estimate
Scorching summer heat took a toll on the Midwest corn crop, and food shoppers could see the results in higher prices at the supermarket in coming months.
The government on Monday sharply reduced its estimate of this year’s corn harvest because of hot, dry conditions in July and August. That will prop up already high prices for the grain that is the main source of feed for cattle, hogs, chickens and turkeys.
Producers have been shrinking their flocks and herds to cope with the higher cost of feeding their animals, and that reduced supply of meat and dairy products will help drive up food prices by 4 to 6 percent next year, says economist Thomas Elam of FarmEcon LLC.
The Agriculture Department estimated last month that food costs will be up 3 to 4 percent this year and forecast an increase of 2.5 to 3.5 percent for 2012, a more modest rise than Elam predicted. Still, the biggest price increases this year are in beef, up as much as 8 percent, and pork, according to USDA. Grocery bills are also being pushed up by higher costs for vegetable oil, sugar and other ingredients unrelated to corn.
“We’ll still have plenty of food to eat. It’s just going to be more expensive,” said Elam.
The USDA on Monday lowered its estimate of this year’s corn harvest to 12.5 billion bushels, a full 3 percent less than the department had forecast a month ago. The USDA cut its estimate of Iowa’s projected yield to 167 bushels an acre, 10 bushels an acre off last month’s estimate. Nationally, the projected yield was cut by nearly five bushels to 148.1 bushels an acre.
Bert Vandenberg, who farms with his two sons near Donnellson in southeastern Iowa, said his corn crop was doing well until the rain stopped in July and temperatures soared to around 100. The ears and the grain kernels are both small as a result. “We were very wet up to the first of July. We were just swimming. Then it quit raining,” he said.
Two years ago, the farm produced 160 to 170 bushels per acre. Last year, his crops were damaged by flooding. He plans to start harvesting this year’s crop this week and has been hoping to get 120 bushels to the acre.
Nationally, this year’s harvest would still be the third largest on record, according to the USDA’s estimate, but that’s not large enough to keep up with the global demand for grain, according to the USDA. Because of that smaller crop, which has pushed up market prices sharply, both livestock producers and ethanol plants are going to use less grain than previously expected, and exports are likely to be lower as well, the USDA said.
With “these kinds of yields and production and with our big demand, we’re into rationing” grain supplies, said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities Inc. in West Des Moines.
Roose said the reports will encourage farmers in South America to plant more corn. “We’re sending a signal for the rest of the world to plant and help plug some of these gaps,” he said.
Grain stocks are at what the industry considers very tight margins. The USDA now estimates that just 672 million bushels of corn will be on hand heading into the 2012 harvest next year. The carryover heading into this fall was 920 million bushels.
Corn prices have been soaring because of the tight supplies and concerns about the size of the harvest. Farmers are expected to get paid an average of $7 a bushel on this year’s crop, USDA said. That’s 30 cents a bushel more than the department forecast just a month ago and way above the $5.20 that farmers made on their 2010 crop.
Deb Keller, a grower near Clarion who heads the Iowa Corn Promotion Board, said her crop is turning out to be one of the best ever. But she’s concerned, too, about food prices.
“I go to the grocery store and I’ve seen my grocery prices rise. But you have to remember that corn last year fell back to the $3 mark and grocery prices did not go down,” she said.
Written by
PHILIP BRASHER | Gannett Washington Bureau