EVALUATING THE STABILITY OFNATURAL GAS SUPPLY: CASE OFCHINA
Faheemullah Shaikh,
Centre for Energy Environment Policy Research, Institute of Policy & Managment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Mehran University Centre for Energy & Development, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology (MUET), Jamshoro, Pakistan.
Phone +86 13021934532, E-mail: .
Overview
Energy security constitutes the vital role in maintaining the economic development and human life. The term energy security is considered polysemous, and distinguished by its purpose, location and study period. Energy security generally includes two main aspects 1) stability of supply 2) security of energy use. Stability of energy supply is to guarantee the supply at a stable level to meet the demand and security of energy use includes ensuring that its use will not result in any environmental damage.
In this paper, China has been chosen as a case to assess the stability of its natural gas supplies.China’s overall energy security concern has been to ensure the stable supply of foreign oil, specifically challenged because of the geopolitical and territorial disputes and pirates attack, constituting the term Malacca dilemma in China’s energy security research. However, recently, the natural gas has attracted Chinese policy makers to deal with GHG emissions and modify the existing high carbon energy consumption structure. China became a net importer of natural gas in 2007. China’s natural gas import dependency was just 5% in 2007 and jumped to 32% in 2013, becoming the fourth largest consumer of natural gas in the world. China’s natural gas import share is comprised of liquefied natural gas (LNG) (15%) and pipeline natural gas (PNG) (17%). According to the latest forecasts by various studies that China’s natural gas import dependency will reach 50% by 2020 and 75% by 2030. Therefore, keeping in view the growing import dependence of natural gas in China’s primary energy mix, it is very essential to examine the stability of its supply.
The remainder of the paper is organized as: Section 2 constructs and simulates the ecological network model of the China’s natural gas supply. Section 3 discusses the results. Finally section 4 concludes the study and put forward suggestions for improving the natural gas supply security of China.
Methodology
Ecological Network Analysis
Result
First, the pyramid structure of the contributions of the different compartments to overall natural gas supply security was determined.
Second, the diversity of China’s natural gas security was estimated and observed that increase in the number of natural gas import sources/countries and the PNG, had caused overall increase in the stability of natural gas supplies.
Third, the scenario analysis indicates that thestability of China’s natural gas supply issubstantially decreased with a maximum reliance on any one of the sources of supply.
Conclusion
This study implemented the ENA modelling approach to quantify the contribution of different compartments/parts of the China’s natural gas supply system. Further, we estimated the diversity and the stability of China’s natural gas supplies. We conclude that China’s natural gas supplies have remained stable during the period 2007-2013. However, keeping in view the growing demand, it is strongly suggested to continue the policy of source diversification to maintain the overall stability of natural gas supply.
Selected references
Leung, G. C. (2011). China's energy security: Perception and reality.Energy Policy,39(3), 1330-1337.
Zhang, Y., Yang, Z., & Fath, B. D. (2010). Ecological network analysis of an urban water metabolic system: model development, and a case study for Beijing.Science of the Total Environment,408(20), 4702-4711.
Zhang, Y., Yang, Z., Fath, B. D., & Li, S. (2010). Ecological network analysis of an urban energy metabolic system: model development, and a case study of four Chinese cities.Ecological Modelling,221(16), 1865-1879.
Lu, W., Su, M., Zhang, Y., Yang, Z., Chen, B., & Liu, G. (2014). Assessment of energy security in China based on ecological network analysis: A perspective from the security of crude oil supply.Energy Policy,74, 406-413.
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