22nd September 2016
eThekwini Demographic Forecast 2060
In collaboration with Statistics South Africa: Demography Unit the Office of Strategy Management is preparing a demographic forecast for eThekwini until 2060.
Statistics South Africa(SSA) utilises fertility, mortality, HIV / AIDS and migration factors to produce official population projections until 2060 at the National and Provincial scales. The KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) population is estimated to be 15.2 million in 2060, which is a growth of 3.4 million from 11.8 million in 2020.
The methodology being developed is to derive the eThekwini population from its share of the KwaZulu-Natal population. The means of calculating the projected eThekwini share will be to plot the KZN and eThekwini mid-year estimates from 2002 to 2020 and to use linear regression to estimate the future share of eThekwini. Projections already commissioned by eThekwini will be used to explore lower and higher growth scenarios.
SSA have expressed the view that demographic projections become less dependable the longer the time scale and the smaller the geographic area of projection. For these reasons SSA will produce National and Provincial forecasts but not Metros and DCs scales beyond 5 years from the current year.
Official short term demographic forecasts for eThekwini are undertaken by Statistics South Africa (SSA). The forecast in Table 1 indicates that the population of eThekwini will grow by 175 thousand between 2016 and 2020 when the population total will be 3.85 million. This projection includes population by gender and age cohorts and can be seen in Annexure 1.
Table1: SSA Forecast: eThekwini
2016 / 2017 / 2018 / 2019 / 2020Population Total / 3677575 / 3723435 / 3767939 / 3811167 / 3853278
The sub-municipal spatial distribution of the forecasted eThekwini population is a function of eThekwini’s will to enforce land use policies and cannot be determined by demographic projections. However, it is possible to utilise existing spatial population distributions and modelled future spatial scenarios as a means of calculating the spatial distribution of eThekwini’s forecasted population. In collaboration with eThekwini Electricity their spatial distribution model will be utilised to examine population distribution under various land use scenarios.
Progress to date.
The KZN 2060 projection has been acquired from SSA and the methodology tested using proxy calculations of eThekwini’s share of KZN.
As SSA are in the process of developing the eThekwini share of KZN based on the 2002 to 2020 estimates the proxy shares that were used were based on the eThekwini share of KZN as at the 1996, 2001 and 2011 Census. Table 2 shows the eThekwini share of KZN’s population from 1996 till 2011, which is an increased share of 1.47% over 15 years or an increase of 0.0978% per annum.
Table 2: eThekwini population share of KZN.
Census / eThek % of KZN1996 / 32.060
2001 / 32.242
2011 / 33.527
Assuming that the eThekwini share of KZN were to increase at 0.0978% per annumuntil 2060 then the eThekwini share of KZN will be 38.32% and the eThekwini population will be 5.83 million.
SSA have commented that the methodology is good but that the regression on mid-year estimates from 2002 to 2020 will provide a better annual percentage increase. The revised calculation is likely to be less than 5.83 but it is not possible at this point to say by how much.
Higher and lower scenarios have been addressed by the Transport Authority projections of 2004 and 2011. The 2004 study estimated the low scenario to be 0.87 of the projection and the high scenario was 1.043 of the projection at 2030. The 2011 study estimated the low scenario at 0.96 and the high scenario at 1,040. On the basis of this trial run the high end scenario in 2060 could add as much as 250, 000 to eThekwini’s population.
Regarding the internal spatial distribution of projected eThekwini populations, the shapefiles used in the Electricity Demand modelling process have been acquired and meetings have been set up to run different spatial distribution scenarios.
Annexure 1: SSA: Population Forecasts for eThekwini
Sex / Age / 2016 / 2017 / 2018 / 2019 / 2020Male / 0-4 / 182546 / 180411 / 179326 / 179107 / 179378
Male / 5-9 / 186873 / 187457 / 187073 / 185475 / 183386
Male / 10-14 / 173565 / 177192 / 179797 / 182066 / 183983
Male / 15-19 / 153186 / 155898 / 159978 / 164557 / 168820
Male / 20-24 / 161650 / 160620 / 159480 / 158772 / 159073
Male / 25-29 / 161855 / 162489 / 163243 / 163986 / 164401
Male / 30-34 / 141566 / 146207 / 150666 / 155182 / 160100
Male / 35-39 / 135138 / 135691 / 135658 / 135052 / 133879
Male / 40-44 / 122433 / 125069 / 127071 / 128522 / 129537
Male / 45-49 / 99382 / 102679 / 106350 / 110113 / 113522
Male / 50-54 / 82665 / 84830 / 86781 / 88650 / 90748
Male / 55-59 / 66610 / 68390 / 70355 / 72459 / 74549
Male / 60-64 / 53514 / 54678 / 55869 / 57093 / 58398
Male / 65-69 / 41154 / 42414 / 43386 / 44238 / 45107
Male / 70-74 / 24822 / 26755 / 28779 / 30633 / 32165
Male / 75-79 / 11954 / 12718 / 13611 / 14786 / 16319
Male / 80+ / 4833 / 5395 / 5967 / 6552 / 7155
Female / 0-4 / 178841 / 176424 / 175160 / 174857 / 175119
Female / 5-9 / 185006 / 185353 / 184639 / 182721 / 180338
Female / 10-14 / 172138 / 175772 / 178390 / 180531 / 182216
Female / 15-19 / 151047 / 153542 / 157605 / 162417 / 167045
Female / 20-24 / 157968 / 156773 / 155160 / 153958 / 153745
Female / 25-29 / 155119 / 155612 / 156465 / 157219 / 157546
Female / 30-34 / 145935 / 147390 / 148478 / 149514 / 150955
Female / 35-39 / 138763 / 139770 / 139986 / 139457 / 138275
Female / 40-44 / 121111 / 123497 / 125820 / 127993 / 129824
Female / 45-49 / 103576 / 105373 / 107393 / 109599 / 111839
Female / 50-54 / 91199 / 92745 / 94031 / 95080 / 96135
Female / 55-59 / 78449 / 80059 / 81585 / 83122 / 84650
Female / 60-64 / 64063 / 65737 / 67621 / 69571 / 71431
Female / 65-69 / 53042 / 54263 / 55176 / 56009 / 57003
Female / 70-74 / 37807 / 39873 / 41959 / 43824 / 45332
Female / 75-79 / 21626 / 23099 / 24681 / 26489 / 28553
Female / 80+ / 16124 / 17241 / 18381 / 19545 / 20731
Total / 3677575 / 3723435 / 3767939 / 3811167 / 3853278