------
log: K:\Roger-Australia\Robustness-1\Malaysia-Mexico_imports.log
log type: text
opened on: 18 Aug 2006, 08:37:01
. clear
. *Estimating the Australian Immigration Trade relationship;
. insheet using k:\book2.txt
(54 vars, 11640 obs)
. drop if ccode ==.
(10630 observations deleted)
.
. *Dropping Malaysia
. drop if ccode==454580
(10 observations deleted)
.
.
.
.
. **Regression of Imports
. tsset ccode year
panel variable: ccode, 117100 to 725980
time variable: year, 1991 to 2000
.
. **I. Aggregate Imports
. xtgls lrimp limmig lgdp lgdpau lgdpdfrationew lpopau lpop lxrate1 lremo
> te ldist lopen english white lwhitemg, igls panels(hetero)corr(psar1)nolog
Cross-sectional time-series FGLS regression
Coefficients: generalized least squares
Panels: heteroskedastic
Correlation: panel-specific AR(1)
Estimated covariances = 100 Number of obs = 1000
Estimated autocorrelations = 100 Number of groups = 100
Estimated coefficients = 14 Time periods = 10
Wald chi2(13) = 8768.99
Log likelihood = -552.3828 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------
lrimp | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
------+------
limmig | .3319175 .0308639 10.75 0.000 .2714254 .3924097
lgdp | 1.188422 .033127 35.87 0.000 1.123494 1.253349
lgdpau | .0541269 .6094519 0.09 0.929 -1.140377 1.248631
lgdpdfrati~w | -.9819565 .2481531 -3.96 0.000 -1.468328 -.4955855
lpopau | -2.434733 2.100626 -1.16 0.246 -6.551886 1.682419
lpop | .0271203 .040996 0.66 0.508 -.0532303 .1074709
lxrate1 | -.1376883 .0173531 -7.93 0.000 -.1716996 -.1036769
lremote | -.4295682 .0757038 -5.67 0.000 -.5779449 -.2811914
ldist | -2.166142 .1720852 -12.59 0.000 -2.503422 -1.828861
lopen | .2976922 .057475 5.18 0.000 .1850433 .410341
english | .888545 .1279549 6.94 0.000 .637758 1.139332
white | 4.56269 .5723127 7.97 0.000 3.440978 5.684403
lwhitemg | -.4254884 .0509186 -8.36 0.000 -.5252869 -.3256898
_cons | 41.95686 19.38689 2.16 0.030 3.959246 79.95447
------
. vce
| limmig lgdp lgdpau lgdpdf~w lpopau lpop lxrate1
------+------
limmig | .000953
lgdp | -.000297 .001097
lgdpau | -.000887 .001301 .371432
lgdpdfrati~w | -.000775 .000085 -.007576 .06158
lpopau | .001622 -.007856 -1.2546 .043207 4.41263
lpop | -.000147 -.000745 .000154 .000205 -.000203 .001681
lxrate1 | .000074 .000154 .000325 .000203 -.002216 -.000072 .000301
lremote | .000468 .000077 -.000574 -.00176 -.00286 -.000237 .000107
ldist | .001476 .000993 .000167 -.001279 -.010834 .000217 .002018
lopen | -.000135 .000614 .002512 .000688 -.017779 .00029 .000085
english | -.001141 .002787 .002824 .002072 -.010535 -.001397 .000523
white | .004742 -.002074 .003196 -.010108 -.027218 .004974 .000172
lwhitemg | -.00058 .000187 -.000304 .000945 .003054 -.000391 -.000032
_cons | -.018966 .072393 11.0519 -.555756 -40.0401 -.008242 .003938
| lremote ldist lopen english white lwhitemg _cons
------+------
lremote | .005731
ldist | .005243 .029613
lopen | .00135 .000137 .003303
english | -.003302 .00248 -.000749 .016372
white | -.000311 -.002231 .000083 -.000257 .327542
lwhitemg | .00014 -.00023 -.000103 .00018 -.02868 .002593
_cons | -.033968 -.192964 .199499 .05789 .322341 -.03549 375.852
. **II. Conservative Estimates
. *2.1. Aggregate reference priced Imports (conservative)
. xtgls lrrefp_cm limmig lgdp lgdpau lgdpdfrationew lpopau lpop lxrate1 l
> remote ldist lopen english white lwhitemg, igls panels(hetero)corr(psar1)nolog
Cross-sectional time-series FGLS regression
Coefficients: generalized least squares
Panels: heteroskedastic
Correlation: panel-specific AR(1)
Estimated covariances = 100 Number of obs = 1000
Estimated autocorrelations = 100 Number of groups = 100
Estimated coefficients = 14 Time periods = 10
Wald chi2(13) = 72696.24
Log likelihood = -993.4383 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------
lrrefp_cm | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
------+------
limmig | .0507705 .0135931 3.74 0.000 .0241284 .0774125
lgdp | 1.651864 .0501362 32.95 0.000 1.553599 1.750129
lgdpau | .8289739 .3495245 2.37 0.018 .1439185 1.514029
lgdpdfrati~w | -.5101248 .146094 -3.49 0.000 -.7964638 -.2237858
lpopau | -6.185031 1.181334 -5.24 0.000 -8.500403 -3.86966
lpop | -.4310092 .083823 -5.14 0.000 -.5952993 -.2667192
lxrate1 | -.1151389 .020511 -5.61 0.000 -.1553397 -.074938
lremote | -.8981876 .0994484 -9.03 0.000 -1.093103 -.7032723
ldist | -2.823478 .1584201 -17.82 0.000 -3.133976 -2.51298
lopen | -.069954 .0265674 -2.63 0.008 -.1220251 -.0178829
english | .9939267 .0858116 11.58 0.000 .8257389 1.162114
white | 3.816287 .7964773 4.79 0.000 2.25522 5.377354
lwhitemg | -.3764433 .0762768 -4.94 0.000 -.5259431 -.2269435
_cons | 89.59022 11.10438 8.07 0.000 67.82603 111.3544
------
. vce
| limmig lgdp lgdpau lgdpdf~w lpopau lpop lxrate1
------+------
limmig | .000185
lgdp | -.000241 .002514
lgdpau | -.001179 .00181 .122167
lgdpdfrati~w | -.000553 .000454 -.011169 .021343
lpopau | .004649 -.007055 -.403969 .021365 1.39555
lpop | .000146 -.003972 -.001583 .000581 .003939 .007026
lxrate1 | -.000025 .000265 -.000066 .000439 -.00321 -.000278 .000421
lremote | .000358 .000067 -.00682 -.003517 .024736 -.000799 .000015
ldist | .000707 -.003719 -.006319 -.000096 .013415 .006488 .000558
lopen | .000041 -.000097 -.000984 .000889 .0037 .000252 -.00008
english | -.000396 .000177 .002974 .002755 -.020503 .000439 .001154
white | .000964 -.011507 -.011247 -.003055 .039189 .017904 -.000586
lwhitemg | -.000083 .00051 .000432 .000108 -.002234 -.00072 .000095
_cons | -.053183 .110243 3.61676 -.067795 -12.8336 -.100055 .046127
| lremote ldist lopen english white lwhitemg _cons
------+------
lremote | .00989
ldist | .00136 .025097
lopen | .000673 .000319 .000706
english | -.002796 .003441 -.000422 .007364
white | .00872 .00303 .001626 -.000674 .634376
lwhitemg | .000016 .000962 -.00011 .000273 -.059029 .005818
_cons | -.318367 -.334661 -.046891 .236986 -.480573 .015914 123.307
.
. *2.2. Aggregate Differentiated Imports (conservative)
. xtgls lrdiff_cm limmig lgdp lgdpau lgdpdfrationew lpopau lpop lxrate1 l
> remote ldist lopen english white lwhitemg, igls panels(hetero)corr(psar1)nolog
Cross-sectional time-series FGLS regression
Coefficients: generalized least squares
Panels: heteroskedastic
Correlation: panel-specific AR(1)
Estimated covariances = 100 Number of obs = 1000
Estimated autocorrelations = 100 Number of groups = 100
Estimated coefficients = 14 Time periods = 10
Wald chi2(13) = 7870.30
Log likelihood = -950.2887 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------
lrdiff_cm | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
------+------
limmig | .0950208 .0222866 4.26 0.000 .0513398 .1387017
lgdp | 1.798198 .0713399 25.21 0.000 1.658374 1.938022
lgdpau | .1967021 .5643725 0.35 0.727 -.9094476 1.302852
lgdpdfrati~w | -.458933 .2107185 -2.18 0.029 -.8719337 -.0459323
lpopau | -3.124539 1.94445 -1.61 0.108 -6.935591 .6865139
lpop | -.7370079 .0781606 -9.43 0.000 -.8901999 -.5838159
lxrate1 | -.1450565 .0271779 -5.34 0.000 -.1983241 -.0917889
lremote | -.3929254 .1303274 -3.01 0.003 -.6483624 -.1374884
ldist | -4.191215 .3645328 -11.50 0.000 -4.905686 -3.476744
lopen | .0591097 .0424225 1.39 0.164 -.0240368 .1422563
english | .9865308 .1379451 7.15 0.000 .7161634 1.256898
white | 9.353175 1.968274 4.75 0.000 5.495428 13.21092
lwhitemg | -.8117722 .1970091 -4.12 0.000 -1.197903 -.4256414
_cons | 65.44575 18.39286 3.56 0.000 29.39641 101.4951
------
. vce
| limmig lgdp lgdpau lgdpdf~w lpopau lpop lxrate1
------+------
limmig | .000497
lgdp | -.000849 .005089
lgdpau | -.001944 .004921 .318516
lgdpdfrati~w | -.000751 .001859 -.016439 .044402
lpopau | .005714 -.025173 -1.06452 .044624 3.78089
lpop | .000627 -.00404 -.002434 -.000979 .010976 .006109
lxrate1 | .00001 .000583 -.000034 .001028 -.005078 -.000826 .000739
lremote | -.00008 -.001118 -.009123 -.001416 .030956 -.001531 .000227
ldist | .002043 .009224 -.01001 -.003499 -.015863 -.001855 .001323
lopen | .000084 -.000534 -.000138 .001973 .000563 .000958 -.000179
english | -.000857 .003415 .006741 .002756 -.037374 .000829 .001742
white | .001563 -.030623 .000719 .004304 .026199 .020678 .003445
lwhitemg | -.000129 .00155 -.001848 -.000836 .006549 -.001341 -.0004
_cons | -.054803 .161003 9.4332 -.332694 -34.5997 -.09222 .066406
| lremote ldist lopen english white lwhitemg _cons
------+------
lremote | .016985
ldist | .006066 .132884
lopen | .000522 -.000769 .0018
english | -.006424 .007319 -.001355 .019029
white | .014195 -.16633 .002611 .00554 3.8741
lwhitemg | .00104 .012755 -.000147 -.001747 -.380027 .038813
_cons | -.433241 -.985428 -.006627 .330979 1.33304 -.201673 338.297
. *2.3. Aggregate Homogenous Imports (conservative)
. xtgls lrhomo_cm limmig lgdp lgdpau lgdpdfrationew lpopau lpop lxrate1 l
> remote ldist lopen english white lwhitemg, panels(hetero)corr(psar1)nolog
Cross-sectional time-series FGLS regression
Coefficients: generalized least squares
Panels: heteroskedastic
Correlation: panel-specific AR(1)
Estimated covariances = 100 Number of obs = 1000
Estimated autocorrelations = 100 Number of groups = 100
Estimated coefficients = 14 Time periods = 10
Wald chi2(13) = 2093.86
Log likelihood = -1102.653 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------
lrhomo_cm | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
------+------
limmig | .0877299 .0421803 2.08 0.038 .0050579 .1704018
lgdp | .9250367 .0816715 11.33 0.000 .7649635 1.08511
lgdpau | -.4390311 .8187832 -0.54 0.592 -2.043817 1.165754
lgdpdfrati~w | -.4545696 .3446117 -1.32 0.187 -1.129996 .220857
lpopau | .0927241 2.811338 0.03 0.974 -5.417397 5.602846
lpop | .0614839 .1004827 0.61 0.541 -.1354585 .2584264
lxrate1 | -.1296963 .0333187 -3.89 0.000 -.1949998 -.0643929
lremote | .5386588 .2295771 2.35 0.019 .0886959 .9886217
ldist | -1.525197 .3471244 -4.39 0.000 -2.205548 -.8448452
lopen | .3196266 .0797393 4.01 0.000 .1633404 .4759128
english | 1.683747 .24403 6.90 0.000 1.205457 2.162037
white | 1.539936 2.185697 0.70 0.481 -2.743952 5.823824
lwhitemg | .1887584 .1927748 0.98 0.327 -.1890732 .5665899
_cons | .8577463 26.79846 0.03 0.974 -51.66626 53.38176
------
. vce
| limmig lgdp lgdpau lgdpdf~w lpopau lpop lxrate1
------+------
limmig | .001779
lgdp | -.00168 .00667
lgdpau | -.001379 .001069 .670406
lgdpdfrati~w | -.0003 .001657 -.00878 .118757
lpopau | .001981 -.008147 -2.24676 .034401 7.90362
lpop | .000337 -.00591 .000238 -.001275 -.002411 .010097
lxrate1 | .00012 .000882 .000591 .002065 -.007573 -.001144 .00111
lremote | .001303 .000746 -.027451 -.0143 .083149 .000213 -.000657
ldist | .004425 -.007319 -.019222 -.006203 .058753 .011443 -.000087
lopen | .000294 -.001106 .005044 .001656 -.028499 .002869 -.00019
english | -.003729 .001275 .008989 .005777 -.014933 -.000646 .001432
white | .004243 -.024938 .113513 .007476 -.460992 .022036 .000899
lwhitemg | -.000588 .000996 -.011918 -.002064 .049371 -.000356 -.000213
_cons | -.025144 .118732 20.0952 -.299214 -73.3177 -.100243 .108278
| lremote ldist lopen english white lwhitemg _cons
------+------
lremote | .052706
ldist | .020312 .120495
lopen | .001795 -.000996 .006358
english | -.014122 .013849 -.001879 .059551
white | .036655 -.026084 .006414 .038155 4.77727
lwhitemg | -.00042 .006189 -.000392 -.002688 -.410327 .037162
_cons | -1.32107 -1.8383 .316243 -.023269 4.77536 -.574365 718.157
. **III. Liberal Estimates
. *3.1. Aggregate reference priced Imports (liberal)
. xtgls lrrefp_lm limmig lgdp lgdpau lgdpdfrationew lpopau lpop lxrate1 l
> remote ldist lopen english white lwhitemg, igls panels(hetero)corr(psar1)nolog
Cross-sectional time-series FGLS regression
Coefficients: generalized least squares
Panels: heteroskedastic
Correlation: panel-specific AR(1)
Estimated covariances = 100 Number of obs = 1000
Estimated autocorrelations = 100 Number of groups = 100
Estimated coefficients = 14 Time periods = 10
Wald chi2(13) = 55879.57
Log likelihood = -922.2624 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------
lrrefp_lm | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
------+------
limmig | .0252198 .0135882 1.86 0.063 -.0014126 .0518521
lgdp | 1.558795 .0539701 28.88 0.000 1.453015 1.664574
lgdpau | .6599259 .3583144 1.84 0.066 -.0423573 1.362209
lgdpdfrati~w | -.2910467 .1407893 -2.07 0.039 -.5669888 -.0151047
lpopau | -6.553388 1.213488 -5.40 0.000 -8.931781 -4.174994
lpop | -.1769992 .0934119 -1.89 0.058 -.3600832 .0060848
lxrate1 | -.0484469 .0192136 -2.52 0.012 -.0861049 -.0107889
lremote | -.6507788 .150961 -4.31 0.000 -.9466569 -.3549008
ldist | -2.502164 .1706056 -14.67 0.000 -2.836545 -2.167783
lopen | -.053684 .0269735 -1.99 0.047 -.1065511 -.0008169
english | 1.159415 .1099787 10.54 0.000 .9438612 1.37497
white | 3.558162 .8872814 4.01 0.000 1.819122 5.297201
lwhitemg | -.2679349 .0818227 -3.27 0.001 -.4283044 -.1075653
_cons | 92.7026 11.4866 8.07 0.000 70.18928 115.2159
------
. vce
| limmig lgdp lgdpau lgdpdf~w lpopau lpop lxrate1
------+------
limmig | .000185
lgdp | -.000192 .002913
lgdpau | -.000943 .002046 .128389
lgdpdfrati~w | -.000361 .000654 -.007826 .019822
lpopau | .003439 -.006806 -.42559 .011521 1.47255
lpop | .000112 -.004761 -.00175 .000194 .002773 .008726
lxrate1 | -1.1e-06 .000213 -.000033 .000511 -.002889 -.000215 .000369
lremote | -.000027 -.000936 -.013223 -.005492 .048976 .000158 -.000258
ldist | .000809 -.005423 -.00442 .00167 .002679 .009892 .000737
lopen | .000019 -.000101 -.000984 .000799 .003631 .00027 -.000072
english | -.000322 -.00018 .00376 .003132 -.02069 .000223 .001044
white | .000464 -.016639 -.016066 -.000874 .022351 .029589 .002388
lwhitemg | -.000087 .000784 .000118 -.000444 .002624 -.001588 -.000259
_cons | -.037703 .128407 3.84322 .009916 -13.6283 -.126065 .040776
| lremote ldist lopen english white lwhitemg _cons
------+------
lremote | .022789
ldist | -.003076 .029106
lopen | .001129 .000227 .000728
english | -.004725 .006214 -.000488 .012095
white | .016971 .032764 .001034 .007594 .787268
lwhitemg | .000937 -.002084 .000014 -.000625 -.069402 .006695
_cons | -.611294 -.223506 -.048884 .219462 -.512313 -.026039 131.942
. *3.2. Aggregate Differentiated Imports (liberal)
. xtgls lrdiff_lm limmig lgdp lgdpau lgdpdfrationew lpopau lpop lxrate1 l
> remote ldist lopen english white lwhitemg, igls panels(hetero)corr(psar1)nolog
Cross-sectional time-series FGLS regression
Coefficients: generalized least squares
Panels: heteroskedastic
Correlation: panel-specific AR(1)
Estimated covariances = 100 Number of obs = 1000
Estimated autocorrelations = 100 Number of groups = 100
Estimated coefficients = 14 Time periods = 10
Wald chi2(13) = 8738.81
Log likelihood = -980.9032 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------
lrdiff_lm | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
------+------
limmig | .1248756 .0246703 5.06 0.000 .0765228 .1732284
lgdp | 1.825551 .0701834 26.01 0.000 1.687994 1.963108
lgdpau | .0248215 .5948069 0.04 0.967 -1.140979 1.190622
lgdpdfrati~w | -.4335033 .2280101 -1.90 0.057 -.8803948 .0133882
lpopau | -2.67523 2.04118 -1.31 0.190 -6.675869 1.32541
lpop | -.7800902 .0751454 -10.38 0.000 -.9273725 -.6328079
lxrate1 | -.1366672 .0278536 -4.91 0.000 -.1912593 -.0820752
lremote | -.3368754 .1233533 -2.73 0.006 -.5786435 -.0951074
ldist | -3.600729 .3466736 -10.39 0.000 -4.280197 -2.921261
lopen | .0809194 .0452898 1.79 0.074 -.007847 .1696858
english | .8327734 .124085 6.71 0.000 .5895714 1.075976
white | 9.228086 1.950678 4.73 0.000 5.404828 13.05135
lwhitemg | -.8322303 .1951492 -4.26 0.000 -1.214716 -.4497449
_cons | 56.33494 19.21389 2.93 0.003 18.6764 93.99348
------
. vce
| limmig lgdp lgdpau lgdpdf~w lpopau lpop lxrate1
------+------
limmig | .000609
lgdp | -.001061 .004926
lgdpau | -.002082 .004581 .353795
lgdpdfrati~w | -.000926 .002233 -.018864 .051989
lpopau | .006759 -.024939 -1.17983 .048536 4.16642
lpop | .000791 -.003997 -.002605 -.001128 .014094 .005647