Effects of Climate and Plant Phenology on Recruitment of Moose at the Southern Extent

Effects of climate and plant phenology on recruitment of moose at the southern extent of their range

Kevin L. Monteith • Robert W. Klaver • Kent R. Hersey • A. Andrew Holland • Timothy P. Thomas • Matthew J. Kauffman

K. L. Monteith

Department of Zoology and Physiology, Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit

University of Wyoming

Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, USA

e-mail:

R. W. Klaver

U. S. Geological Survey, Iowa Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit

Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Iowa State University

Ames, Iowa, 50011, USA

K. R. Hersey

Utah Division of Wildlife Resources

Salt Lake City, Utah, 84114, USA

A. A. Holland

Colorado Parks and Wildlife

Durango, Colorado, 81303, USA

Tim Thomas

Wyoming Game and Fish Department

Sheridan, Wyoming, 82801, USA

M. J. Kauffman

U.S. Geological Survey, Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit

Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming

Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, USA.

Supplemental Table 1. Parameter estimate, standard error, and test statistics describing temporal trend in seasonal patterns of average daily temperature (°C) and cumulative precipitation (cm) for Shiras moose range in 18 herd units in the Rocky Mountains, USA, 1980–2009. Temporal trends were modeled as a fixed effect of year with a random intercept for herd unit, and seasons were defined with a climograph (Supplemental Fig. 1).

Climate / Season / β / SE / F-value / p-value
Temperature / Winter / 0.064 / 0.0062 / 103.88 / <0.001
Spring / 0.051 / 0.0071 / 51.62 / <0.001
Summer / 0.061 / 0.0054 / 125.20 / <0.001
Autumn / 0.052 / 0.0057 / 82.70 / <0.001
Precipitation / Winter / -0.048 / 0.039 / 1.53 / 0.22
Spring / -0.10 / 0.0022 / 22.20 / <0.001
Summer / -0.064 / 0.024 / 7.18 / 0.0076
Autumn / -0.043 / 0.023 / 3.59 / 0.059

Supplemental Table 2. Parameter estimate, standard error, and test statistics describing temporal trend in spring plant phenology based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for Shiras moose range in 18 herd units in the Rocky Mountains, 1989–2009. Temporal trends were modeled as a fixed effect of year with a random intercept for herd unit.

Phenology metric / β / SE / F-value / p-value
Start of spring / -0.29 / 0.12 / 5.38 / 0.021
Length of spring / -0.30 / 0.12 / 6.15 / 0.014
Rate of spring green-up / 0.0002 / 0.00004 / 15.46 / <0.001

Supplemental Figure 1.Climograph of mean monthly temperature and precipitation that define seasons for Shiras moose range in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, USA, 1980–2009. Solid lines indicate months within a particular season and dashed line separate seasons.

Supplemental Figure 2.Annual recruitment rates (young per 100 adult females) for Shiras moose in 18 herd units in Rocky Mountains, USA for stable (p > 0.10) and declining (p < 0.10) trends in recruitment, 1980–2009.

Supplemental Figure 3.Patterns of plant phenology as indicated by weekly mean values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during 2 years with contrasting patterns of green-up in the Jackson herd unit, northwestern Wyoming, USA.