Committee: / Data Work Group / Committee Leader: / Jamie Austin
From Date / November 24, 2015 / To Date / December1, 2015
10:30 – 10:40
10:40 – 10:50
10:50 – 12:00 /
- Welcome and Introductions
- WECC Anti–Trust Policy Summary
- Continued work on plant retirement assumptions for the TEPPC 226 Common Case
- Actual and Expected Energy from Coal for California
- Accelerating Coal Plant Retirement
- Intermountain
- San Juan unit 3
- San Juan unit 4
- Replacement Assumptions to use in the TEPPC 2026CC
Meeting Objectives
“Actual and Expected Energy from Coal for California” is the featured topic for this meeting. DWG had already covered SONGS\OTC plant replacement assumptions, and we have an approval from TAS to proceed with proxy assumptions that had been determined by key players from California. Furthermore, the California Energy Commission has been tracking the POUs negotiations aimed at expediting retirement of Intermountain, San Juan Unit 3, San Juan Unit 4, and other coal-fired generation resources providing California electricity.
Marc Pryor, CEC, has graciously agreed to discuss possible actions that may accelerate reductions in California’s use of coal-fired generation impacting assumptions to use for coal plant retirements in the TEPPC 2026 Common Case. Following is a link to a CEC report, by Mark Pryor:
Welcome and Introductions
Dan covered the WECC anti-trust policy. Jamie welcomed participants, reviewed the agenda and explained that today’s call is a continuation of an effort aimed at identifying plant retirements\replacementsfor the TEPPC 2026 Common Case. Specifically, the LRS information on plant retirement, collected in Q1 2015, needs to be supplemented with more recent information resulting from accelerated coal plantretirementspursuant to the passage of California’s SB350 and more recent developments of the Clean Power Act and the EPA rule 111d.
Jamie thanked Marc Pryor, Supervisor – Procurement & Modeling at the CEC and his staff for their continued support of TEPPC and for his willingness to present and respond to questions on “Actual and Expected Energy from Coal for California”.
Actual and Expected Energy from Coal for California
Marc began his presentation by explaining that “Reliance on Coal” is one of the topics that the CEC tracks amongst other energy topics impacting California. See detailed list on slide 2, enclosed presentation:
A report covering California Energy Commission – Tracking Progress is posted on the CEC website and is expected to be updated by the end of December, 2015. Slide 3 has a listing of potential edits.
The plot on slide 4 shows historic coal in-state & net imports 1993-2014 (from CEC Energy Almanac). The red line depicts imports whereas the blue line depicts in state coal. The import peaks and valleys consistently correspond to low and high water year. The decrease in 2006 was impacted by the loss of Mohave and in 2012was a result of temporary loss of some IPP generation.
Relative to slide 5, Marc explained thatelectricity supplies from existing coal plants represented less than 7 percent of California’s energy demand in 2014. In recent years, there has been a concerted effort by California to reduce climate-changing impacts due to the use of fossil fuels. By 2026, virtually all electricity generated by known coal-fired generation resources to serve California loads is expected to end.
Marc added the pie chart on slide 6 that shows imports from out-of-state coal percent share by plant –for both years 2007 vs. 2014;about 95% of coal-based energy in 2014 came from power plants outside California. By 2014, the number of plants had decreased from seven to four.
Slide 7 shows actual and expected reductions of energy by coal plants used to serve California’s load (2007-2026).
On the last slide, slide 8, Marc summarized drivers that reduces reliance on coal that includes:
- California’s Emission Performance Standard
- Price of Natural Gas (lower than coal)
- Other regulatory pressures
Grace asked if the 2.5 million listed (under investments of at least 5 years) on slide 8 if it was a cost. Marc responded this is the cost of how much is going to be invested.
Grace asked if we have documentation that would supportthese changes and if the same assumptions are use in IEPR? Marc responded thatthe same assumptions are used inboth IEPR and in S5. Grace commented this is robust enough.
Jamie asked if you’re saying that Intermountainwill be replaced with Natural Gas, how about other coal plants? Marc responded we cannot speculate.
Grace suggested perhaps the Study Work Group can write and ask plant owners?
Tom Carr commented that it is a critical assumption for speculating what the replacement might be. Tom expressed skepticism about asking plant owners as they may not know yet what the replacement would be.
Grace commented that the effect on transmission would be great. Jamie agreed, given capacities of impacted plants.
Xiaobo asked about the bullet stating that gas price is lower than coal, on slide 8, if the gas price if emission costs are included? Marc responded yes.
Xiaobo asked is the coal supplying San Bernardino locally mined or where does it come from? Marc responded it is transported by rail from out of state.
In closing, Jamie thanked meeting participants for their contributions.
In attendance at the 120115 Meeting:
Name / Company / Name / Company
Austin, Jamie / PAC / x / Lau, Elaine / CPUC
Amjadi, Amir / Larsen, Peter / LBNL
Alvarado, Al / CEC / Le, David / CAISO
Anderson, Grace / CEC / x / Lee, Peter / BPA
Baack, Jim / VoteSolar / Lehr, Ron / AWEA
Bailey, Michael / WECC / Lindsay, Jimmy
Barbose, Galen / LBNL / Linvill, Carl / RAP
Brathwaite, Leon / CEC / Mao, Megan / SCE
Brownlee, Ben / Energy Strategies / Maracas, Kate / WWND
Beckstead, Dan / WECC / x / Martinez, Esteban / IID / x
Belval, Ron / TEP / Marxen, Chris / CEC
McLean, Christopher / CEC
Broad, Diane / McCann, Richard
McIntosh, Henry / SDG&E / x
Brathwaite, Leon / CEC / Mejia, Roni / SCE
Brinkman, Gregory / NREL / Minter, Vaughn / x
Brooks, Donald / CPUC / Miller, Tom / PG&E / x
Brown, Elise / SPSG / Milligan, Michael / NREL
Brush, Ray / Western / Moore, Jack / E3
Burner, Bob / Duke Energy / Moussa, Effat / SDG&E / x
Carr, Tom / WIEB / x / Moyer, Keegan / WECC
Carvallo, Juan Pablo / IID / Newman, Raymond
Charles, Gillian / NPCC / Nail, George / PN&M
Chhajed, Pushkar / LCG Consulting / Nothstein, Greg
Colburn, Mitch / IPC / Pacheco, Ezquiel / IID
Coe, Scott / Pacini, Heidi / ICF
Cole, Brian / Papic, Milorad / IPC
Corum, Ken / NWPCC / Pascoe, Bill / TREL
Darth / Perez, Army / WECC
Deaver, Paul / CEC / x / Piper, David / SCE
Decker, Megan
Denker, Brendan / SRP / Prochnik, Julia / NRDC
Depenbrock, Fred / Nevada Hydro / Pryor, Mark / CEC / x
Delleney, Mike / CAISO / Puglia, Peter / CEC
Donnohoo, Pearl / NREL / Quick, Kirha / WECC
Didsayabutra, Paul / COGRID / Raub, Jenika / SRP
Elkins, Mat / WECC
Eaton, Pam / SPSG / Richard, J / CEC
Evans, Mike / Shell Energy / Rowe, Sarah / OPUC
Ezequiel / IID / Rucker, Magdalena
Filippi, Jim / First Solar / Samaan, Nader / NWNL
Fisher, Emily / NREL / Satchwell, Andy / LBNL
Freeman, Bryce / WYOC / Schlag, Nick / E3
Gazewood, Jim / BLM / Schanahan, Patrick
Green, Irina / CAISO / x / Schellberg, Ron / IPC
Griffin, Karen / CEC / Schilmoeller, Michael / NWPCC
Grau, Judy / Schmidt, Jason / Xcel Energy
Gutierrez, Noe / IID / Simmons, Steve / NWPCC
Hagman, Chris / ATC / x / Singh, Harliv / Xcel Energy
Hands, Betsey / MT / Spears, Michael
Harner, Patrick / IID / Satyal, Vijay / WECC
Harris, Gerald / Reos / Strack, Jan / SDG&E
Harris, Kevin / COGRID / x / Stefan / OPUC
Henery, E. Nick / x / Stokes, Mark
Hein, Jeff / Xcel / Tanghetti, Angela / CEC
Heutte, Fred / NWEC / Trinh, Lan / ABB
Hodge, Bri-Mathias / NREL
Holland, Stan / WECC / Voisin, Nathalie / NWNL
Hosie, Bill / Duke Energy / Von Reis Baron, Kate / PGE
Huang, Wenxiong / PLEX / Wang, Xiaobo / CAISO / x
Wallace, Steven / CPS / x
Jenka, Raub / SRP / Wheeler, Dan / Gaelectric
Jensen, Richard / CEC / Williams, Stan / BPA
Johnson, Anders / BPA / White, Keith / CPUC / x
Johnson, Colby / WECC / x / White, Stephen / BPA
Jourabchi, Massoud / NWPCC / Weiss, Steve / BPA
Kates, David / Nevada Hydro / Woertz, Byron / WECC
Kelly, Nancy / Wong, Lana / CEC / x
Klapka, Paul / SCE / Zhang, Yi / CAISO / x
Klein, Joel / CEC / Zhu, Jin / ABB
Knudsen, Steve / BPA / Zhang, Hui
Kujala, Ben / NWPCC / Zichella, Carl / NRDC
Kravchuk, Luba / CAISO