NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation R & D workshop
June 6, 2003
College Park, Maryland
Executive Summary
A NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation R & D workshop was held on June 6, 2003 in College Park, Maryland. The goals of this meeting were (a) to revise, add to and generally complete the Science and Implementation Plan for NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Development; (b) to establish a time line of specific activities tied to specific individuals / groups. To achieve these objectives, deficiencies and uncertainties of current regional and global models were identified and examined. The path to improved warm season precipitation prediction was discussed
. Suggestions and recommendations to improve the “white paper” were made. The revised white paper is attached as Appendix 3.
- Objective and summary of the white paper
The objective of the white paper is to develop a strategy for accelerating progress on the fundamental modeling issues pertaining to the NAME science goals of providing improved understanding and prediction of
- Warm season convective processes in complex terrain;
- Intraseasonal variability of the monsoon;
- The response of warm season atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns to slowly varying, potentially predictable oceanic and continental surface conditions;
- The life cycle of the North American monsoon system and its variability.
The guiding principals for the white paper are
- To take maximum advantage of NAME enhanced observations, and to provide model-based guidance to the evolving multi-tiered NAME observing program;
- To maintain a multi-scale approach in which local processes are embedded in, and are fully coupled with larger-scale dynamics.
The meeting was organized to reflect the strategic approach given in the white paper:
- Identify the uncertainties and deficiencies of the models;
- Multi-scale model development;
- Multi-tier synthesis and data assimilation;
- Prediction and global scale linkages.
2. Identify the uncertainties and deficiencies of the models
The NAMAP activity provides an opportunity to assess the performance of current models, in particular
- To identify and describe inter-model consistencies and differences;
- To tentatively suggest physical explanations for differences;
- To provide measurement targets for the NAME 2004 field campaign; and
- To examine effects of core monsoon (Tier I) convection differences on the larger-scale (Tier II) circulation.
There were 7 groups participating in NAMAP to simulate or forecast monsoon development in 1990 June-September. While all models are able to produce rainfall over the core monsoon regions, the details differ. The models produce very different rainfall structure, rainfall maximum/minimum, seasonal cycle and diurnal cycle,
It was recommended that the NAME observations be used to address the following large model uncertainties:
- The diurnal cycle (precipitation, low-level circulation);
- The timing of late-day convection and amount of nocturnal rainfall;
- The structure and location of the Gulf of California low-level jet;
- Surface quantities (T, LH, SH fluxes);
3. Multi-scale model development
In the monsoon region, there are many mesoscale convective systems. They move in different directions with different speeds. The boundary layer depths over some regions can exceed 3000 m. Observations point to the complexity and multi-scale nature of the systems involved.
Most models have problems capturing the seasonal evolution of the monsoon and the mesoscale features of rainfall and regional circulation anomalies. These are related to the convection schemes and microphysics, which needs to be improved in the models.
One possibility is to improve parameterizations of convection in current models. Another is to model the convective cloud systems explicitly. This will provide the basic understanding of the dynamical system. However, the spatial scale for multi scale models is about 1km. Therefore, more work and resources are needed to apply this method to seasonal climate forecasts.
Recommendations:
- Multi scale modeling should be tested for the NAME period;
- Data assimilation using a mesoscale mode with 10-20 km resolution is needed to provide large scale circulation for multi scale modeling;
- Model development should focus on land/atmosphere interactions in the presence of complex terrain and ocean-atmosphere interactions.
4. Multi-tier synthesis and data assimilation
During the NAME period, data impact studies will be performed with and without the NAME data for CDAS (T62 resolution), GDAS (T256 resolution) and EDAS by the NCEP. These products provide a benchmark for other assimilation and model forecasts.
The data assimilation products depend on the model and the data assimilation scheme used. For example: the 12-36h precipitation forecasts during the data assimilation cycle for models with different convective schemes show very different rainfall amounts and patterns.
Recommendations:
- Various groups (with different models) are encouraged to perform data assimilation using the NAME data. The model output should be evaluated based on key features of the warm season precipitation regime (diurnal cycle, MCS’s, moisture surges and boundary layer depths);
- This is a good opportunity to test new assimilation methods such as the ensemble Kalman filtering method.
5. Prediction and global scale linkages
Outside the Tier I region, the boundary and surface forcing become very important. Both sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Tropical Pacific and in the North Pacific have influences on the development of monsoon. In addition to the SSTAs, seasonal forecast skill increases when accurate soil moisture is provided at the initial time.
Key elements of the monsoon system (including tropical cyclones) are modulated by intraseasonal oscillations (such as the Madden Julian Oscillation). The inability for models to capture the intraseasonal oscillations has a negative impact on seasonal precipitation forecasts.
Recommendations:
- Realistic soil moisture and temperature information is needed to test the impact of soil conditions on seasonal forecasts;
- Improve simulations of tropical intraseasonal oscillations and their impact on the monsoon.
6. Other issues and follow-ups
1) The NAME modeling and data assimilation groups should work closely with other national and international programs like CEOP, PILPS and the subseasonal prediction program organized by GSFC.
2) Investigators interested in NAME modeling should respond to the OGP/PACS/GAPP call for proposals for the coming summer. This will link the specific issues in the NAME modeling strategic plan to specific groups and activities;
3) Establish performance measures of the NAME modeling activity;
4) Better communication between modeling groups and observational groups;
5) The “white paper” will be inserted in the NAME Science and Implementation Plan, but it should continue to be revised;
6) The NAME modeling and data assimilation activities should be reviewed during the SWG5 meeting in Puerto Vallarta, MX.
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Appendix 1: NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Development meeting participant list
Participant List
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Jorge Amador Astua
Center for Geophysical Research
University of Costa Rica
2060 San Jose,COSTA RICA
Tel: (506) 2075096 or (506) 2075320
Fax: (506) 2342703
Email:
Phil Arkin
ESSIC, University of Maryland
College Park, Md 20742
Email:
Kristi Arsenault
Goddard Space Flight Center,
NASA, Greenbelt Md
Email :
Julio Bacmeister
DAO
Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA,Greenbelt Md
Email:
E. Hugo Berbery
ESSIC
University of Maryland
College Park, Md 20742
Michael Bosilovich
Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA, Greenbelt Md
Email :
Marco Carrera
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Email:
Miguel CortezVzquez
Seasonal Forecast Project
National Meteorological Service
Av. Observatorio 192,Col. Observatorio
Mxico D. F. 11860
MEXICO
Tel: (52) 56268660
Fax: (52) 56268695
Email:
Paul A.Dirmeyer
COLA,
4041 Powder Mill Rd.
Calverton, Md, 20705
Tel: 301-595-7000
Email:
C. B. Emmanuel
Associate Director
Joint Office for Science Support
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000 FL4, Rm. 1412
Boulder, CO 803073000
Tel: (1) 3034978693
Fax: (1) 3034978158
Email:
Luis Farfan
Cicese
Ensenada, Mexico
David J. Gochis
RAP
National Center for Atmospheric Research
PO Box 3000FL2,Boulder, CO 803073000
Tel: (1) 3034972809
Email:
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Zhichang Guo
COLA
4041 Powder Mill Rd.
Calverton, Md, 20705
Tel: 301-595-7000
Email:
Andrea N. Hahmann
Institute of Atmospheric Physics
PAS Bldg. 81,University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
Tel: (1) 5206216619
Fax: (1) 5206216833
Email:
Mark Helfand
DAO
Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA,Greenbelt Md
Email:
Wayne Higgins
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7547
Email:
Ming Ji
OGP/NOAA
1100 Wayne Ave.
Silver Spring, Md 20910
Tel: 301-427-2089
Email:
Charles Jones
Institute for Computational Earth System Science (ICESS)
University of California
Santa Barbara, CA 931063060
Email:
Thomas J. Jackson
USDA ARS Hydrology and Remote Sensing Lab,104 Bldg. 007 BARCWest
Beltsville, MD 20705
(301) 5048511
Fax (301) 5048931
Donald Johnson
Department of Meteorology
University of Wisconsin
Madison, Wisconsin, 53706
Email:
Richard Johnson
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
USA
Tel: 9704918321
Email:
Henry Juang
EMC
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000
Email:
Masao Kanamitsu
Scripps Institution of Oceanography,
UCSD, La Jolla, Ca
Tel: 6195342099
Email :
H. K. Kim
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7515
Email :
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Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
164 Wilcox Hall
P.O. Box 352700
Seattle, WA 98195, USA
Tel: (1) 2065432532
Fax: (1) 2066853836
Email:
Jim Mather
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Richland, WA 99352
(509) 3754533
(509) 3726168 (fax)
Email:
Kenneth Mitchell
EMC
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000
Email:
Kingtse Mo
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7540
Email :
Mitchell W. Moncrieff
Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology
National Center for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000FL3
Boulder, CO 803073000, USA
Tel: (1) 3034978960
Fax: (1) 3034978181
Email:
S. Moorthi
EMC
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd., Camp Springs, Md 20746
tel: 301-763-8000
Email:
Hau L. Pan
EMC, NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000
Email:
Michael Patterson
OGP/NOAA
1100 Wayne Ave. Silver Spring, Md 20910
Tel: 301-427-2089
Fax: 301-427-2073
Philip Pegion
DAO,Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA, Greenbelt Md
Email:
Jae Schemm
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7565
Email :
Siegfried Schubert
DAO
Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA, Greenbelt Md
Email:
Wei Shi
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7545
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Yucheng Song
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd., Camp Springs, Md 20746
tel: 301-763-8000
Email:
Dave Stensrud
Leader, Models and Assimilation Team
NOAA/National Severe Storm Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle,Norman, OK 73069
USA
Tel: (1) 4053660418
Fax: (1) 4053660472
Email:
Max Suarez
DAO
Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA, Greenbelt Md
Email:
Rongqian Yang
EMC
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000
Email:
Song Yang
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000
Email:
Evgeney Yarosh
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7575
Email:
Chidong Zhang
Meteorology & Physical Oceanography Div.
University of Miami, RSMAS,
4600 Rickenbacker Causeway
Miami, Fl. 33149
Tel 305-361-4042
Email:
Dusanka Zupanski
Jiaya Zhou
NOAA/NWS/Climate Services
1325 East West Hwy, Silver Spring, Md 20910
Email:
Dusanka Zupanski
Colorado State UniversityCIRA
Ft. Collins, CO 80526
USA
Tel: (1) 9704918642
Fax:
Email:
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Appendix 2: Agenda
NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Development
June 6, 2003
University of Maryland Inn and Conference Center
Purpose: To revise, add to and generally complete the Science and
Implementation Plan for NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Development.
Friday 6 June 2003
8:00 am Opening Remarks and Expected Outcome (Mo)
8:05 am NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation R&D (Schubert)
8:35 am The North American Monsoon Assessment Project (NAMAP):
What have we learned? (Kim)
9:05 am Summary of NAME 2004: Status and Plans (Higgins)
9:35 am Summary of the Ensenada meeting on the oceanographic
component of NAME (Farfan)
9:45 am Break
10:00 - 11:30 am Working session on Phase 1: Model Development (Moncrieff)
10:00 am Global modeling perspective (Bacmeister)
10:15 am Regional model perspective (Mitchell)
10:30 am Multi scale modeling perspective (Moncrieff)
10:45 am Discussion
11:30 am Lunch
12:30-2:00 pm Working session on Phase 2: Data Assimilation and
Analysis (Stensrud)
12:30 pm Opening remarks (Stensrud)
12:45 pm Global and regional data assimilation at the NCEP
during NAME (Mo)
1:00 pm Challenging scientific issues for NAME in the context of
data assimilation (Zupanski)
1:15 pm Discussion
2:00 pm Break
2:20 pm Summary of NAME Hydrometeorology Working Group plans (Gochis)
2:30-4:00 pm Working session on Phase 3: Predictability and Forecasts
(Schemm)
2:30 pm Seasonal climate predictability over NAME region (Schemm)
2:45 pm Prediction and predictability on intraseasonal time
scales (Schubert)
3:00 pm Statistical Forecast of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (Jones)
3:15 pm Discussion
4:00 pm Conclusions / Assignments
Appendix 3. The NAME “White paper” entitled “NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation: A Strategic Overview” is attached as a separate file “NAME_modeling.doc
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