Final Report
COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL BUDGET PRIORITISATION AND ALLOCATIONS FOR CHILD AND WOMEN CENTRED AREAS AND COSTING OF MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS
Policy Analysis and Coordination Division (PAC)
Cabinet Office
February, 2008
February 2008
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF APPENDICES iv
ACRONYMS v
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY vii
1.0 Introduction vii
2.0 Background vii
3.0 Findings, Lessons Learned and Recommendations vii
3.1 Literature Review viii
3.2 Analysis of the Budget Process viii
3.3 Analysis of Budget Data ix
4.0 Lessons Learned and Recommendations xi
5.0 Conclusion xiii
PART 1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION 1
1.0 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Appointment of Consultant 1
1.2 Purpose of the Comprehensive Analysis of the National Budget 1
1.3 Terms of Reference 1
1.4 Scope of Terms of Reference 2
1.5 Expected Deliverables 3
1.6 Justification of the Study 3
1.7 Methodology Applied 3
1.7.1 Primary Data Collection 3
1.7.2 Secondary Data Collection 4
1.7.3 Analysis of the Findings 4
1.7.4 Mechanisms for Feedback 5
1.8 Appraisal of the Quality and Reliability of all the Documents used in the Analysis 5
1.9 Organisation of the Report 5
PART II: BACKGROUND 6
2.0 BACKGROUND 6
2.1 Situation Analysis of Women and Children in Zambia 6
PART III FINDINGS, LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS 9
CHAPTER 1 ...............................................................................................................10
LITERATURE REVIEW 10
1.0 FINDINGS 10
1.1 Introduction 10
1.2 Legal Framework Governing the Budget Process 10
1.3 Linkages Between Planning, Policy And Budget Documents 10
1.3.1 Instruments of Planning 10
1.3.1.1 Vision 2030 11
1.3.1.2 Fifth National Development Plan 2006-2010 11
1.3.2 National Policies 11
1.3.2.1 The National Gender Policy 11
1.3.2.2 The National Child Policy 13
1.3.3 The National Budget 13
1.4 Country Experiences 14
1.4.1 International Experience – Sweden Case 14
1.4.2 Regional Experience – South African Case 15
1.4.3 National – Zambian Case 16
1.5 Institutional Framework For The Implementation, Monitoring And Evaluation Of The Fifth National Development Plan 19
CHAPTER 2 ...............................................................................................................22
ANALYSIS OF THE BUDGET PROCESS 22
2.0 FINDINGS 22
2.1 Introduction 22
2.2 The Budget Process 22
2.3 Key Players in the Budget Process 23
2.4 Making Budget More Responsive to the Situation of Children and Women 24
2.5 A Critical Analysis of the Budget Process 24
CHAPTER 3 ...............................................................................................................26
ANALYSIS OF BUDGET DATA 26
3.0 FINDINGS 26
3.1 Introduction 26
3.2 Identified Children’s and Women’s Programmes 26
3.3 Patterns of Gaps between Budget Submissions and Ceilings 27
3.4 Patterns of Budget Allocations and Expenditures 27
3.4.1 Water and Sanitation 28
3.4.2 Health and Nutrition 28
3.4.3 Education and Skills Development 29
3.4.4 Other Programmes 29
3.5 Sources of Financing for Women’s and Children’s Programmes 30
3.6 Factors Responsible for Mismatches between Allocations and Expenditures 32
3.7 Diversity and Depth of Budget Performance Challenges 33
3.8 Realism of Budget Allocations in Achieving Economic, Social and Cultural Rights and Millennium Development Goals 35
3.8.1 Health Sector 35
3.8.2 Education Sector 36
3.8.3 Gender Issues 37
CHAPTER 4 ...............................................................................................................39
LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS 39
4.0 Introduction 39
4.1 Literature Review 39
4.1.1 Section 1 Lessons Learned 39
4.1.2 Section 2 Recommendations 39
4.2 Budget Process 40
4.2.1 Section 1 Lessons Learned 40
4.2.2 Section 2 Recommendations 41
4.3 Analysis of Budget Data 41
4.3.1 Section 1 Lessons Learned 41
4.3.2 Section 2 Recommendations 42
PART IV CONCLUSION 43
APPENDIX I - QUESTIONNAIRE 44
APPENDIX II - LIST OF PARTICIPANTS IN THE INTERVIEWS 46
APPENDIX III - LIST OF DOCUMENTS USED IN THE STUDY 48
APPENDIX IV - LIST OF PARTICIPANTS – WORKSHOP ON VALIDATION OF ALL REPORTS 52
APPENDIX V –.LEVELS & GAPS BETWEEN BUDGET ALLOCATIONS &
EXPENDITURES..................................................................................52
LIST OF APPENDICES
APPENDIX I - Questionnaire
APPENDIX II - List of Participants in the Interviews
APPENDIX III - List of Documents Used in the Study
APPENDIX IV - List of Participants – Workshop on Validation of all Reports
APPENDIX V - Levels and Gaps between Budget Allocations and
Expenditures
ACRONYMS
ABB - Activity-Based Budgeting
AG - Accountant General
A-I-A - Appropriation-In-Aid
ARVs - Anti-Retro Virals
CBOs - Community Based Organisations
CEDAW - Convention on the Elimination of Discrimination Against
Women
CRC - Constitution Review Commission
CSEN - Children with Special Education Needs
CSPR - Civil Society for Poverty Reduction
CSO - Central Statistical Office
DCI - Development Corporation of Ireland
DDCCs - District Development Coordinating Committees
DFID - Development Finance of International Development
EU - European Union
FNDP - Fifth National Development Plan
GIDD - Gender In Development Division
GDP - Gross Domestic Product
GNP - Gross National Product
GRB - Gender Responsive Budget
HIV AND AIDS/
STI/TB - Human Immunodeficiency Virus, Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, Sexually Transmitted Infections and Tuberculosis
ICESCR - International Convention on Economic, Social and
Cultural Rights
IFMIS - Integrated Financial Management and Information
System
ILO - International Labour Organisation
KPIs - Key Performance Indicators
LCMS - Living Conditions Monitoring Survey
MDGs - Millennium Development Goals
MMD - Movement for Multi-Party Democracy
MOFNP - Ministry of Finance and National Planning
MPSAs - Ministries, Provinces and Other Spending Agencies
MTEF - Medium-Term Expenditure Framework
NCP - National Child Policy
NDCC - National Development Coordinating Committees
NGOs - Non-Governmental Organisations
OVC - Orphans and Vulnerable Children
PAC - Policy Analysis and Coordinating Division
PAF - Performance Assessment Framework
PDCC - Provincial Development Coordinating Committees
PEMD - Planning and Economic Management Division
PEMFAR - Public Expenditure Management, Financial and
Accounting Reforms
PMTCT - Programme for Mother-to-Child Transmission
PRBS - Poverty Reduction and Budget Support
PRSP - Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
PUSH - Peri-Urban Self Help
PWAS - Public Welfare Assistance Scheme
SAGs - Sector Advisory Groups
SPAW - Strategic Plan for the Advancement of Women
TNDP - Transitional National Development Plan
UK - United Kingdom
UNCRC - United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child
UNDP - United Nations Development Progamme
UNICEF - United Nations International Children’s Fund
VCT - Voluntary Counselling and Testing
WASHE - Water, Sanitation, Hygiene and Education
WBI - Women Budget Initiative
WHO - World Health Organisation
ZDHS - Zambia Demographic and Health Survey
ZRA - Zambia Revenue Authority
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.0 Introduction
A comparative analysis of the 2006 budget data from Budget Office and the Office of the Accountant General revealed that there are discrepancies between budget allocations and expenditures. The stated analysis identified some responsible factors and also revealed that there is an apparent need to synchronise the financial figures between Budget Office and the Office of the Accountant General.
In this vain, the Policy Analysis and Coordinating Division of Cabinet Office decided to undertake a comprehensive analysis of the national budget prioritisation and allocations for child and women centred areas and costings of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) within the 2007-2010 Country Programme of Zambia with UNICEF.
This report is the outcome of the stated analysis and is made up of four parts covering the General Introduction; Background; Findings, Lessons Learned and Recommendations and Conclusion.
2.0 Background
The prevailing situation of women and children provides the basis on which policies and programmes are formulated to address them. These programmes are derived from the long-term and medium-term instruments of planning and are implemented through the national budget.
However, the biggest challenge faced by planners and policy-makers in developing and implementing policies which are gender sensitive is the difficulty in obtaining up-to-date information that is disaggregated by sex. This is due to the fact that currently statistics on children and women are not collected on a regular basis with most of them being collected with a two-year lag.
This notwithstanding, available statistics on women indicate that they lag behind in terms of participation in politics and the labour force. Furthermore, indicators in health show that there is a general deterioration of the situation of women and children.
3.0 Findings, Lessons Learned and Recommendations
The bulk of this report contains the findings of the study on the basis of which the lessons learned are provided and recommendations made.
3.1 Literature Review
The literature review covered the following categories:
· Legal framework;
· Linkages between planning, policy and budget documents;
· Country experiences; and
· Institutional framework for the implementation, monitoring and evaluation of the Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP).
The findings of the review are as follows:
· The budget process is governed by national laws and regulations, international conventions and the ruling party’s manifesto, however, there are no provisions in the national laws with regard to the preparation of the budget;
· Gender is a cross-cutting issue and all sectoral policies and their accompanying plans have a bearing on the advancement of women and children;
· The determination to advance the goals of equality, development and peace for women is outlined in the National Gender Policy of 2000;
· The National Child Policy (NCP) provides the basis for the welfare and development of children;
· The aspirations, objectives and priorities of Government policies are reflected in the long-term and medium-term instruments of planning and are translated into reality through the national budget;
· The FNDP’s institutional, monitoring and evaluation framework is an improvement on the one that was developed for the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper, however, the capacity to monitor and evaluate the Plan is threatened by various factors which need to be addressed; and
· The Gender Budgeting Initiative is faced with two major challenges namely: (i) failure to develop a stronger link to the regular budgetary work; and (ii) failure to assess the results and extent of the impact of the work in terms of greater gender equality by public agencies.
3.2 Analysis of the Budget Process
The analysis of the budget process has revealed that there is a general consensus by stakeholders interviewed that the budgeting process has become more consultative and transparent since the introduction of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). However, a number of concerns were raised which include the following:
· Weak role of community representatives during the preparation and implementation of the budget;
· Little focus on programmes that have a greater impact on special groups such as women, children and the disabled, such as maternal health and Orphans and Vulnerable Children;
· Lack of a feedback mechanism on the consultations on the Green Paper because the final MTEF is not circulated to stakeholders once it is finalised;
· Limited time for consultations as the Green Paper is published around October instead of August thus there is no adequate time to consult before the budget is finalised;
· Weak role of Sector Advisory Groups in both the budget preparation and implementation stages of the budget process;
· Low absorption capacity by MPSAs which is largely explained by unclear/no implementation plans which are supposed to be contained in the annual plans and short implementation period because the budget is implemented for only nine months due to the Budget Calendar;
· Inadequate resources allocated to those ministries that directly deal with the issues of women, for instance, the Ministry of Sport, Youth and Child Development;
· Failure to match policy aspirations to institutional capacities;
· Cumbersome and lengthy tendering and procurement procedures;
· Poor prioritization of programmes by MPSAs;
· Lack of capacity in budgeting skills;
· The Constitutional lag and administrative delays in the preparation of the Financial Report and consequently delays in the preparation of the Auditor-General’s Report;
· Absence of a single Treasury Account;
· Limited time within which MPSAs are required to prepare Activity-Based-Budgets (ABB) between issuing the Call Circular and making their proposals (this can be as little as four weeks);
· Failure to fully implement the concept of gender/child mainstreaming; and
· Inadequate capacity in financial management and reporting.
3.3 Analysis of Budget Data
The study observed that largely there were small variances between the ceilings given by MOFNP and the FNDP financing requirements for the priority sectors.
With regard to allocations, the study observed that the total women’s and children’s budget as a share of total national budget stood at 10.17 percent in 2004, but it dropped to 8.15 percent in 2005 and only rose slightly to 8.24 percent in 2006. Over the same period, the total budget for women’s and children’s programmes was largely financed by the Cooperating Partners that accounted for 80.96 percent. The foreign funds from Cooperating Partners on average accounted for 74.06 percent of the budget for women’s and children’s programmes and this was mostly in the Water and Sanitation sector. The total Government contribution accounted for 19.04 percent.
Disbursement of funds from Government over the period 2004-2006 was at an average rate of 87.66 percent reflecting a high commitment on the part of Government towards the achievement of the goals associated with these programmes.
On the other hand, expenditures for women’s and children’s programmes showed a sharp decline from 2004 to 2005 and then a rise in 2006. As a share of total national budget, the expenditures for women’s and children’s programmes declined from 5.09 percent in 2004 to 1.75 percent in 2005 and then rose slightly to 3.70 percent in 2006. Similarly, the implementation rate of the programmes traces the same pattern over the period.
The major finding that emerges from the analysis of the budget data over the three-year period is that the levels and patterns of gaps between the allocations and expenditures generally vary across the different implementing agencies, and for each of the years. The following are the factors responsible for the discrepancies:
· The timing of preparation of budget allocations and expenditure reports;
· The timing of funding requests;
· The timing of disbursements of the allocations to the implementing agencies;
· Partial budget releases;
· Lack of coordination between the Treasury and groups of institutions implementing common projects;
· The budget calendar;
· Cumbersome and lengthy tender procedures; and
· Capacity problems.
The other finding is that budget implementation is faced with many challenges. The following are the major ones:
· Weak policy-budget linkages;
· Resource constraints;
· Pattern of revenue collections;
· Weak monitoring and evaluation systems;
· Lack of ownership of the budget;
· Lack of reliable, recent and sex-disaggregated data;
· Lack of clear procedures for amending the budget; and
· Accountability problems.
With regard to realism of budget allocations in achieving economic, social and cultural rights and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the finding of the study is that the sector plan objectives of the various policies are similar to the MDGs. This, therefore, implies that if the targets of the various sector plans are currently being met and there are indications that such trends will be maintained in the future, then the MDGs are likely to be met. Further, the issues that affect children and women are not limited to any single goal but they apply to all the MDGs. This, therefore, implies that without progress made towards the empowerment of women and the uplifting of the standards of living of children, none of the MDGs will be achieved.
Indications so far are that some MDGs are likely to be met whereas others will not be met. Furthermore, the attainment of the said MDGs is faced with challenges that need to be addressed in order to attain them by 2015.