AGENDA ITEM #
DATE: 22 September 2014
SUBJECT: Regional Transportation Plan –Population/Emp Data Process
PREPARED BY: Shawn Eliot
BACKGROUND: The Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) is updated by the MPO once every 4 years. Our next update is proposed for completion in June 2015. All new regional transportation facilities and improvements are listed in the plan. The plan must be fiscally constrained and meet air quality requirements. In developing the RTP a listing of needed transportation improvements is created based off of projected growth, municipal general plans, and visioning plans. In the fall of 2012, Mountainland staff met with each municipality to review the general plans and to get data on proposed developments or trends. Information from these meetings is fed into a regional growth projection model to forecast where population, households, and employment will be through 2040.
PROJECTIONS AND ESTIMATES: Correct data is critical to get good travel model results. Demographic projections are done to a smaller geography known as a Traffic Analysis Zone (similar in size to a Census Block Group, or about 6 urban city blocks). Current zoning, general plan designations, Wasatch Choice intensity zones, and major corridors attractiveness are all used in projecting future demographic characterizes. Of course one large unplanned development can change everything; this is why we update the data so often using the best available data at the time.
Base data to the TAZ level is first created using a combination of Census 2010 data, Census 2012 estimates, building permit data, and Department of Work Force Services data. Next projections to the TAZ level for each 10 year period are created using the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget county population projections, the MPO produced municipal population projections, Wasatch Choice data, and general plans. Simply put, there is a lot of current and projected data and plans that go into producing the data needed to run the transportation models to develop future needed transportation facilities. The Regional Transportation Plan is the first step to getting a project off the ground, if travel demand cannot be demonstrated for a project, it is not placed in the plan.
One of the larger challenges going forward is preserving land for the larger corridors needed for the high amount of growth projected for Utah County. The population of Utah County is proposed to double by 2040 to just over 1 million people (roughly Salt Lake County’s population today). Discussions of where to preserve land for larger transportation facilities must continue. Planning today will help avert harder decisions tomorrow.
FINAL PROJECTIONS: After meeting with each municipality and reviewing the data projections, each city was allotted time to review and make changes to the data. Few changes were requested in the Spanish Fork, Mapleton, Santaquin, and American Fork areas. Sensitivity tests were done to compare jobs to households as well as comparisons to previous data models. The main conclusion between the last data produced in 2008 for the previous RTP is a little less growth south of Spanish Fork, a little more growth in the northwest county area, and more density along the I-15 corridor between Orem and Lehi.
STAFF RECOMMENDATION: MPO staff recommends to the MPO TAC committee that they recommend approval to the MPO Regional Planning Committee the process used to complete the socio-economic data set. This data set will be used for transportation planning in the MPO area. This process and data has been thoroughly vetted being produced through the MPO socio-economic model, extensive review with each municipality, sensitivity testing, and local input.
PROPOSED MOTION: I move that the MPO Technical Advisory Committee recommend to the MPO Regional Planning Committee the approval of the process used to completed the socio-economic demographic data set to be used as the official data transportation planning in the MPO area. This recommendation is based on the amount of technical work completed by MAG staff coupled with the thorough review of the data by member jurisdictions.
CONTACT PERSON: Shawn Eliot, 801-229-3841 or
Attachment: Demographic Projections-Population and Employment Forecast Model