POL 105Week 63 Oct 98

WAR

  1. Seven Factors Linked to the Outbreak of War
  1. Overview
  1. Military Strength
  1. Misperception & Deception
  1. Internal Unity and discord of enemy
  1. Forgetting the Costs and Bloodiness of War
  1. Economic Prosperity & Economic Ability to wage war
  1. Nationalism and Ideology
  1. Personality & Qualities of Leaders
  1. Military Strength – Power
  1. Balance of Power Theory
  1. balance leads to stability (peace), imbalance leads to war
  1. alliances -- poles
  1. flexible alliance in multi-polar system
  1. stable alliances in a bi-polar system
  1. Balance of Terror – Deterrence Theory
  1. deterrence v. defence
  1. MAD
  1. Nuclear proliferation
  1. Power Transition Theory
  1. hegemon & challenger
  1. capabilities and internal rates of growth
  1. measuring power
  2. GNP
  3. Tax efficiency
  4. Extractive capacity of the state
  5. Allocative efficiency
  1. power transitions
  1. conflictual
  2. peaceful

4. Overview

measuring power

conventional capabilities (troops, expenditures)

nuclear capabilities

allies

  1. Perception, Misperception & Deception
  1. Predicting others’ behavior
  1. How will the enemy respond to my actions?
  2. How will third parties respond?
  3. Will countries join or stay out of the war?
  4. If they join, what side will they choose?
  1. Security dilemma – prisoners’ dilemma

cooperate / defect
Cooperate / 3
3 / 4
1
Defect / 1
4 / 2
2
  1. Misperception
  1. plethora of information
  1. signals v. noise

signal – intended action

noise – irrelevant or inconsistent information

  1. cry wolf – Pearl Harbor
  1. tendency to see what you expect
  1. Deception
  1. Operation Barbarosa, WWII, June 1941
  1. Stalin’s assumptions
  1. German invasion Spring 1942

spring

two fronts

  1. West wanted Soviets in war early
  1. Ultimatum would proceed invasion
  1. Stalin’s mistakes
  1. troop movements – thought it was a German trick
  2. ignored British warnings of attack
  1. Problems of misperception and deception
  1. missing data is crucial
  1. foreign affairs never isolated from domestic
  1. analysts must make assumptions
  1. assumptions are often necessary
  2. frequently indisputable
  3. different analysts different assumptions
  4. different countries different assumptions
  1. foreign policy questions
  1. how much do I know?
  2. How much does my enemy know?
  3. What does he know that I do not know?
  4. How do I know that what I know is not simply what he wants me to know?

D. Internal Unity and Discord of the Enemy

  1. civil discord, unrest & vulnerability
  1. internationalizing civil conflict

E. Memory or the forgetfulness about the costs of war

  1. once a generation explanation
  1. planning for the last war

F. Prosperity & War

  1. economic ability to wage war

–lack of war during bad economic times

–war during economic growth

  1. economy serves as a constraint on war rather than a cause
  1. liberal peace

trade and peace

the McDonald’s Peace

G. Nationalism & Ideology

  1. Nationalism promotes an “us” v. “them” mentality
  1. The notion of “dying for one’s country”
  1. Ideology of war / Ideology of peace

idealism

H. Personality & Qualities of Leaders

  1. personal experiences of leader
  1. link between leaders & ideology

II. War by Accident?

  1. War is intentional

7 factors above all presume intentional actions

option of capitulation or surrender

  1. War by accident?
  1. spiral of misperception

escalating security dilemma

link to signals & noise

  1. launch on warning policies
  1. early warning indicators and nuclear war
  1. accidents avoided

flock of geese

simulation tape

Norwegian atmospheric rocket