Are we in a Post-Constitutional Era?
Jack Jedwab
Executive Director
Association for Canadian Studies
Is Canada entering a post-constitutional era? For several decades constitutional debates have centred upon the issue of finding a way to get Quebec to sign the document by making changes to the Constitution so as to recognize Quebec’s language and cultural difference and/or acknowledge/enshrine the asymmetrical character of the division of federal-provincial powers.
1. Bilateralism May No Longer Drive Constitutional Discussions?
Internal debates in the Quebec sovereignty movement continue to reflect continued polarisation between those who say “sovereignty now” and those who say sovereignty eventually” The rest of Canada has grown increasingly indifferent to constitutional discussion. Moreover, the big historic episodes in country’s constitutional evolution resonate less with the country’s youth. The interaction between Quebec decision-makers and the rest of Canada about the need for constitutional change no longer seems to have much traction in the country. Recent surveys conducted by the firm Leger Marketing for the Association for Canadian Studies confirm that a majority of Canadians-including the majority of Quebecers-do not think that there are any constitutional changes that can ever satisfy the majority of Quebecers (the two surveys were conducted during the first week of October, 2011 with some 2345 Canadians via web with a margin of error for an equivalent phone survey of 2.9 percent 19 times out of 20) and the third week of October with 1000 Quebecers via web with an equivalent margin of error of 3.5 19 times out of 20.
It may not come as a surprise to most Canadians that Quebec sovereignists hold such views but the poll reveals that Quebec federalists have come to the same conclusion. It suggests that approaching the rest of Canada with the idea that a constitutional modification is critical to averting Quebec sovereignty may no longer a realistic negotiating strategy in a post-constitutional environment.
Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following statements:
“If a referendum on Québec sovereignty were held today, would you vote FOR or AGAINST Québec sovereignty?” And “There are no constitutional changes that can ever satisfy the majority of Quebecers”
If a referendum on Québec sovereignty were held today, would you vote FOR or AGAINST Québec sovereignty?There are no constitutional changes that can ever satisfy the majority of Quebecers / For / Against / I don't know / I prefer not to answer
Strongly agree / 19.4% / 25.6% / 12.9% / 4.2%
Somewhat agree / 38.0% / 32.0% / 30.0% / 25.0%
Somewhat disagree / 27.8% / 22.4% / 12.9% / .0%
Strongly disagree / 8.4% / 8.2% / 3.6% / 8.3%
I don't know / 5.8% / 10.6% / 35.7%
I prefer not to answer / .6% / 1.2% / 5.0% / 62.5%
Source: Leger Marketing for the Association for Canadian Studies, October 21, 2011
The table below reveals that there is a growing consensus around the extent to which it is believed that there are constitutional changes that can satisfy a majority of Quebecers.
There are no constitutional changes that can ever satisfy the majority of QuebecersCanada / Total / 18-24 / 25-34 / 35-44 / 45-54 / 55-64 / 65+ / French / English / Other / Maritimes / QC / ON / MB/SK / AB / BC
Total pondéré : / 2345 / 276 / 380 / 457 / 472 / 349 / 411 / 511 / 1350 / 468 / 171 / 558 / 906 / 157 / 245 / 307
Total absolu : / 2345 / 486 / 324 / 313 / 400 / 436 / 386 / 562 / 1566 / 212 / 157 / 584 / 722 / 228 / 211 / 443
TOTAL AGREE / 63% / 58% / 59% / 62% / 66% / 66% / 66% / 58% / 67% / 58% / 60% / 57% / 64% / 72% / 72% / 65%
Strongly agree / 29% / 25% / 28% / 27% / 32% / 31% / 30% / 24% / 31% / 29% / 30% / 24% / 30% / 38% / 32% / 30%
Somewhat agree / 34% / 33% / 31% / 35% / 35% / 35% / 36% / 34% / 36% / 29% / 30% / 33% / 34% / 35% / 40% / 35%
TOTAL DISAGREE / 24% / 23% / 26% / 22% / 21% / 27% / 24% / 30% / 22% / 22% / 27% / 30% / 23% / 19% / 16% / 23%
Somewhat disagree / 18% / 19% / 20% / 17% / 17% / 21% / 17% / 24% / 17% / 18% / 22% / 23% / 16% / 14% / 14% / 18%
Strongly disagree / 6% / 4% / 6% / 5% / 5% / 6% / 7% / 6% / 5% / 5% / 5% / 6% / 7% / 5% / 2% / 4%
I don't know / 12% / 16% / 15% / 12% / 11% / 7% / 10% / 10% / 10% / 18% / 12% / 11% / 13% / 8% / 12% / 10%
I prefer not to answer / 1% / 3% / 1% / 3% / 1% / 0% / 0% / 3% / 1% / 2% / 1% / 3% / 0% / 2% / 0% / 2%
Source: Leger Marketing for the Association for Canadian Studies, October 5, 2011
2. The Importance of Quebec’s Signature on the Constitution
The issue that remains highly symbolic in the discussion around the Constitution is the absence of Quebec’s signature on the document. Not surprisingly, those who would vote in favour of sovereignty (30%) say that it is important to them for Quebec to sign, while the majority of Quebecers opposing sovereignty feel that it is important (54%). It is however difficult to describe the majority as significant and as next year Canada will mark the 30th anniversary of the Constitution, the non-signing is likely taken for granted by more Quebecers.
If a referendum on Québec sovereignty were held today, would you vote FOR or AGAINST Québec sovereignty?It is personally important to me that Quebec signs the Canadian Constitution / For / Against / I don't know / I prefer not to answer
Strongly agree / 14.5% / 22.8% / 2.9%
Somewhat agree / 15.6% / 31.3% / 15.0%
Somewhat disagree / 22.0% / 16.4% / 10.0%
Strongly disagree / 28.6% / 6.8% / 7.9% / 4.2%
I don't know / 16.5% / 19.6% / 57.1% / 8.3%
I prefer not to answer / 2.9% / 3.2% / 7.1% / 87.5%
100.0% / 100.0% / 100.0% / 100.0%
While most Canadians agree that it is personally important that Quebec signs the Canadian Constitution, those under the age of 35 attribute less importance to the matter. In part that is a function of that age group more likely to say that they don’t know (some 20%).
It is personally important to me that Quebec signs the Canadian ConstitutionTotal / 18-24 / 25-34 / 35-44 / 45-54 / 55-64 / 65+ / French / English / Other / Maritimes / QC / ON / MB/SK / AB / BC
Total pondéré : / 2345 / 276 / 380 / 457 / 472 / 349 / 411 / 511 / 1350 / 468 / 171 / 558 / 906 / 157 / 245 / 307
Total absolu : / 2345 / 486 / 324 / 313 / 400 / 436 / 386 / 562 / 1566 / 212 / 157 / 584 / 722 / 228 / 211 / 443
TOTAL AGREE / 54% / 45% / 46% / 52% / 55% / 60% / 62% / 46% / 56% / 55% / 54% / 48% / 58% / 56% / 49% / 54%
Strongly agree / 21% / 15% / 17% / 14% / 22% / 25% / 29% / 15% / 22% / 23% / 18% / 13% / 26% / 21% / 16% / 22%
Somewhat agree / 33% / 30% / 29% / 38% / 32% / 36% / 33% / 32% / 34% / 32% / 36% / 35% / 31% / 35% / 32% / 32%
TOTAL DISAGREE / 29% / 29% / 31% / 30% / 27% / 31% / 28% / 27% / 32% / 25% / 34% / 23% / 29% / 31% / 34% / 32%
Somewhat disagree / 18% / 16% / 21% / 20% / 15% / 18% / 19% / 19% / 19% / 15% / 18% / 16% / 18% / 19% / 18% / 22%
Strongly disagree / 11% / 14% / 10% / 10% / 13% / 12% / 9% / 8% / 13% / 10% / 16% / 7% / 11% / 12% / 16% / 10%
I don't know / 15% / 21% / 22% / 16% / 16% / 8% / 7% / 24% / 11% / 17% / 10% / 25% / 12% / 11% / 16% / 11%
I prefer not to answer / 2% / 4% / 1% / 3% / 2% / 1% / 3% / 3% / 2% / 2% / 2% / 4% / 1% / 3% / 1% / 2%
Source: Leger Marketing for the Association for Canadian Studies, October 5, 2011
Amongst Quebec francophones, the importance of Quebec signing the Canadian constitution diminishes with age and as seen below that is in large part because the younger you are the more inclined to say that you don’t know when such a question is put to you.
Francophones / Strongly Agree / Somewhat Agree / Somewhat Disagree / Strongly Disagree / Don’t Know
18-24 years of age / 5.3% / 21.1% / 22.4% / 15.8% / 34.2%
25-34 years of age / 12.3% / 17.7% / 21.5% / 9.2% / 36.2%
35-44 years of age / 8.8% / 17.6% / 17.6% / 13.2% / 31.6%
45-54 years of age / 11.8% / 22.4% / 18.4% / 21.7% / 20.4%
55-64 years of age / 14.1% / 23.7% / 23.7% / 17.8% / 17.8%
65-74 years of age / 22.6% / 26.0% / 9.6% / 20.5% / 14.4%
75 years of age or older / 30.8% / 34.6% / 11.5% / 3.8% / 15.4%
Total / 13.7% / 22.0% / 18.2% / 16.2% / 24.5%
Source: Leger Marketing for the Association for Canadian Studies, October 5, 2011
It is also true that even amongst the francophone No voters less than 50% say that it is personally important to them that Quebec sign the Canadian Constitution. In the table above the majority of Quebcecers voting No described it as important but that included all Quebecers.
If a referendum on Québec sovereignty were held today, would you vote FOR or AGAINST Québec sovereignty? / It is personally important to me that Quebec signs the Canadian ConstitutionFrancophones / Strongly Agree / Somewhat Agree / Somewhat Disagree / Strongly Disagree / Don’t Know
For / 13.2% / 16.3% / 21.8% / 29.5% / 16.9%
Against / 18.3% / 29.5% / 18.3% / 6.3% / 22.9%
I don't know / 2.8% / 19.6% / 10.3% / 9.3% / 54.2%
I prefer not to answer / 13.8% / 22.2% / 18.3% / 16.2% / 24.4%
Total / 13.8% / 22.2% / 18.3% / 16.2% / 24.4%
Source: Leger Marketing for the Association for Canadian Studies, October 5, 2011
The gap between younger and older Canadians is even wider when asked if “it’s unfortunate that in 1982 Quebec did not sign the Canadian Constitution”. As observed below some 80% agree amongst the population over the age of 65 versus 47% between the ages of 18 and 24. Amongst those respondents between the age of 18 and 24, some one in four said they didn’t know.
It's unfortunate that in 1982 Quebec did not sign the Canadian ConstitutionTotal / 18-24 / 25-34 / 35-44 / 45-54 / 55-64 / 65+ / French / English / Other / Maritimes / QC / ON / MB/SK / AB / BC
Total pondéré : / 2345 / 276 / 380 / 457 / 472 / 349 / 411 / 511 / 1350 / 468 / 171 / 558 / 906 / 157 / 245 / 307
Total absolu : / 2345 / 486 / 324 / 313 / 400 / 436 / 386 / 562 / 1566 / 212 / 157 / 584 / 722 / 228 / 211 / 443
TOTAL AGREE / 66% / 47% / 56% / 63% / 69% / 77% / 80% / 51% / 73% / 63% / 71% / 50% / 71% / 75% / 72% / 71%
Strongly agree / 32% / 21% / 22% / 30% / 32% / 38% / 46% / 20% / 37% / 29% / 31% / 19% / 37% / 38% / 34% / 35%
Somewhat agree / 34% / 26% / 34% / 34% / 37% / 39% / 34% / 31% / 36% / 34% / 40% / 30% / 34% / 37% / 38% / 36%
TOTAL DISAGREE / 17% / 25% / 21% / 18% / 14% / 15% / 12% / 24% / 15% / 16% / 17% / 25% / 15% / 12% / 13% / 13%
Somewhat disagree / 10% / 16% / 14% / 10% / 8% / 8% / 8% / 15% / 9% / 9% / 9% / 15% / 9% / 6% / 9% / 10%
Strongly disagree / 7% / 10% / 7% / 8% / 6% / 6% / 4% / 9% / 6% / 7% / 8% / 10% / 6% / 6% / 4% / 4%
I don't know / 15% / 24% / 21% / 17% / 15% / 8% / 6% / 22% / 11% / 19% / 9% / 23% / 12% / 11% / 13% / 14%
I prefer not to answer / 2% / 4% / 2% / 2% / 2% / 1% / 2% / 3% / 1% / 3% / 3% / 3% / 1% / 3% / 2% / 2%
Source: Leger Marketing for the Association for Canadian Studies, October 5, 2011
It’s true that a significant majority of Quebecers favour the modification of the Canadian Constitution to recognize Quebecers unique character. There is no age gap when it comes to the desire for such recognition. In the rest of Canada the idea does not yield much support with Ontario at 43% showing the highest degree of openness.
It is important to modify the Canadian constitution in such a way that enables recognition of the unique characteristic of QuebecB1 / Total / 18-24 / 25-34 / 35-44 / 45-54 / 55-64 / 65+ / French / English / Other / Maritimes / QC / ON / MB/SK / AB / BC
Total pondéré : / 2345 / 276 / 380 / 457 / 472 / 349 / 411 / 511 / 1350 / 468 / 171 / 558 / 906 / 157 / 245 / 307
Total absolu : / 2345 / 486 / 324 / 313 / 400 / 436 / 386 / 562 / 1566 / 212 / 157 / 584 / 722 / 228 / 211 / 443
TOTAL AGREE / 45% / 45% / 47% / 46% / 42% / 46% / 44% / 66% / 36% / 49% / 37% / 68% / 43% / 25% / 27% / 38%
Strongly agree / 15% / 16% / 17% / 18% / 11% / 17% / 14% / 34% / 9% / 14% / 11% / 32% / 12% / 5% / 4% / 10%
Somewhat agree / 30% / 29% / 31% / 28% / 31% / 28% / 30% / 32% / 27% / 35% / 26% / 36% / 31% / 20% / 22% / 28%
TOTAL DISAGREE / 43% / 35% / 38% / 40% / 47% / 48% / 50% / 20% / 56% / 34% / 53% / 17% / 48% / 63% / 60% / 49%
Somewhat disagree / 22% / 20% / 21% / 21% / 20% / 21% / 25% / 13% / 27% / 16% / 26% / 12% / 23% / 30% / 26% / 24%
Strongly disagree / 22% / 14% / 17% / 18% / 27% / 27% / 25% / 7% / 29% / 18% / 27% / 5% / 24% / 34% / 34% / 25%
I don't know / 10% / 17% / 13% / 13% / 9% / 6% / 4% / 12% / 7% / 15% / 8% / 13% / 7% / 9% / 13% / 11%
I prefer not to answer / 2% / 3% / 2% / 2% / 2% / 1% / 1% / 2% / 2% / 2% / 2% / 2% / 2% / 3% / 0% / 2%
Source: Leger Marketing for the Association for Canadian Studies, October 5, 2011
But as much as they desire such recognition, the majority of Quebecers still agree that there are no constitutional changes that will ever satisfy the majority of the population.
Quebec / It is important to modify the Canadian constitution in such a way that enables recognition of the unique characteristic of QuebecThere are no constitutional changes that can ever satisfy the majority of Quebecers * / Strongly Agree / Somewhat Agree / Somewhat Disagree / Strongly Disagree / Don’t Know
Strongly agree / 20.2% / 17.0% / 25.2% / 47.1% / 16.1%
Somewhat agree / 32.5% / 41.8% / 38.5% / 29.9% / 14.0%
Somewhat disagree / 28.9% / 26.1% / 21.5% / 12.6% / 3.2%
Strongly disagree / 11.7% / 5.3% / 6.7% / 8.0% / 4.3%
I don't know / 6.1% / 9.1% / 6.7% / 2.3% / 62.4%
I prefer not to answer / .6% / .6% / 1.5% / .0%
Source: Leger Marketing for the Association for Canadian Studies, October 21, 2011
2. Is Federalist Governance Really the Problem? Majority of Quebec Yes Voters not averse to a Federal form of Government
Jack Jedwab
In the next twelve months Quebecers will likely face a provincial election which promises to be one of the more interesting contests in the province’s political history. The question of Quebec’s relationship with Canada will be inevitably tested in the election as it has in previous contests. A survey done in October 2011 by the firm Leger Marketing for the Association for Canadian Studies revealed that the majority of younger Quebecers (18-25) do not support sovereignty. The survey further revealed that those historic grievances like the rejection of Meech Lake resonate little with youth for whom the connection with this recent past seems too distant.
The term federalism does not appear to bother the majority of Quebecers. Negative views on the part of Quebecers towards federalism also appear on the wane. As observed below those who indicate that they would vote for sovereignty narrowly favour a federal form of government. But that does not signify the collapse of the sovereignty option as there is much volatility amongst the Quebec electorate as reflected in the success of the New Democratic Party and the sudden rise of the Coalition pour l’Avenir du Quebec. Predicting the outcome of the next provincial election seems as elusive as predicting the future of the stock market.
Si un référendum sur la souveraineté du Québec avait lieu aujourd'hui, voteriez-vous POUR ou CONTRE la souveraineté du QuébecUne forme de gouvernement fédéral dans lequel le pouvoir est divisé entre un gouvernement national et des gouvernements provinciaux et locaux est préférable à tout autre type de gouvernement / Pour / Contre / Je ne sais pas
Tout à fait d'accord / 16.1% / 16.0% / 7.2%
Plutôt d'accord / 35.1% / 49.8% / 30.6%
Plutôt en désaccord / 22.7% / 16.0% / 18.9%
Tout à fait en désaccord / 7.9% / 5.6% / 5.4%
Je ne sais pas / 14.0% / 11.2% / 32.4%
Je préfère ne pas répondre / 4.1% / 1.5% / 5.4%
If federalism is no longer the object of as much negative feeling on the part of Quebecers there nonetheless remain issues where much of the population view sovereignty as the best option.
The tables below reflect the split between supporters of federalism and sovereignty around where various issues are best defended. When it comes to health and education, Quebecers are quite split about whether they are best defended in a federalist or sovereignist system (keep in mind that these are both provincial jurisdiction).
Health and Education / If a referendum on Québec sovereignty were held today, would you vote FOR or AGAINST Québec sovereignty?In your opinion, in which political system it would be easier for Quebecers to resolve the following issues? Is the current federal system or in a sovereign Quebec? / For / Against / I don't know / I prefer not to answer
Current federal system / 8.1% / 64.6% / 13.2% / 21.7%
Sovereign Quebec / 74.7% / 15.3% / 40.7% / 30.4%
None of the above / 8.6% / 17.2% / 25.3% / 34.8%
I don't know / 8.6% / 2.9% / 20.9% / 13.0%
On the economy and employment issues there are sharp divisions as well.
Economy and Employment / If a referendum on Québec sovereignty were held today, would you vote FOR or AGAINST Québec sovereignty?In your opinion, in which political system it would be easier for Quebecers to resolve the following issues? Is the current federal system or in a sovereign Quebec? / For / Against / I don't know / I prefer not to answer
Current federal system / 17.6% / 73.2% / 19.8% / 21.7%
Sovereign Quebec / 64.7% / 11.0% / 27.5% / 26.1%
None of the above / 9.1% / 12.0% / 20.9% / 26.1%
I don't know / 8.6% / 3.8% / 31.9% / 26.1%
Perhaps surprisingly on international matters even an important plurality of those indicating support for sovereignty think the federal system is best suited to address such matters.
Priorities on the international scene / If a referendum on Québec sovereignty were held today, would you vote FOR or AGAINST Québec sovereignty?In your opinion, in which political system it would be easier for Quebecers to resolve the following issues? Is the current federal system or in a sovereign Quebec? / For / Against / I don't know / I prefer not to answer
Current federal system / 30.1% / 81.8% / 38.9% / 41.7%
Sovereign Quebec / 46.8% / 7.7% / 10.0% / 4.2%
None of the above / 10.8% / 6.2% / 16.7% / 25.0%
I don't know / 12.4% / 4.3% / 34.4% / 29.2%
It is around the protection of the French language where Quebecers-federalist and sovereignist alike feel that the matter would be best served within a sovereign Quebec.
Protection of the French language / If a referendum on Québec sovereignty were held today, would you vote FOR or AGAINST Québec sovereignty?In your opinion, in which political system it would be easier for Quebecers to resolve the following issues? Is the current federal system or in a sovereign Quebec? / For / Against / I don't know / I prefer not to answer
Current federal system / 4.8% / 28.4% / 4.4% / 4.3%
Sovereign Quebec / 86.6% / 57.2% / 67.0% / 47.8%
None of the above / 2.2% / 12.5% / 9.9% / 17.4%
I don't know / 6.5% / 1.9% / 18.7% / 30.4%
On the environment while there is a roughly even split between federalists and sovereignists with the responses of those who don’t know, the advantage goes to the federalist system
Environment / If a referendum on Québec sovereignty were held today, would you vote FOR or AGAINST Québec sovereignty?In your opinion, in which political system it would be easier for Quebecers to resolve the following issues? Is the current federal system or in a sovereign Quebec? / For / Against / I don't know / I prefer not to answer
Current federal system / 18.2% / 61.7% / 33.0% / 33.3%
Sovereign Quebec / 62.0% / 18.7% / 22.0% / 20.8%
None of the above / 10.2% / 16.3% / 19.8% / 25.0%
I don't know / 9.6% / 3.3% / 25.3% / 20.8%
3. Support for Quebec Sovereignty: Are Quebec Youth Still Firmly on Side?
Jack Jedwab
Executive Director
Association for Canadian Studies
One of the main forces traditionally driving supports for Quebec sovereignty has been the strong endorsement of the youngest segment of Quebecers for the option. Observers have often pointed out that the federalist option traditionally benefitted from disproportionate levels of support from the older more conservative segment of the population that were more fearful of risk. But two consecutive surveys conducted by in the month of October by the firm Leger Marketing for the Association for Canadian Studies reveal that Quebecers between the ages of 18 and 24 no longer exhibit patterns of support that are so fundamentally different from Quebecers across the age spectrum and indeed age is not as much of a factor in terms of the current level of support for sovereignty. Surveys conducted during the first and third week of October reveal that nearly half of Quebec’s 18-24 cohort would vote against sovereignty were the question submitted to them with nearly one-third in favour and one in five uncertain as to what they would do. The two surveys still see sovereignty hovering around 40% in roughly the same place it has been over the past few decades
If a referendum on Québec sovereignty were held today, would you vote FOR or AGAINST Québec sovereignty?October 21, 2011 / Sexe / Âge / Francophone
BB1 / Total / Homme / Femme / 18-24 / 25-34 / 35-44 / 45-54 / 55-64 / 65 + / Oui / Non
QC16
Total pondéré : / 1010 / 496 / 514 / 112 / 171 / 171 / 205 / 164 / 188 / 799 / 209
Total absolu : / 1010 / 548 / 462 / 112 / 131 / 165 / 215 / 201 / 186 / 883 / 126
For / 34% / 39% / 29% / 32% / 34% / 30% / 33% / 38% / 37% / 41% / 10%
Against / 49% / 50% / 49% / 47% / 48% / 48% / 49% / 50% / 54% / 44% / 71%
I don't know / 14% / 10% / 18% / 20% / 18% / 17% / 14% / 12% / 5% / 14% / 16%
I prefer not to answer / 2% / 1% / 3% / 1% / 0% / 5% / 4% / 0% / 3% / 2% / 3%
If a referendum on Québec sovereignty were held today, would you vote FOR or AGAINST Québec sovereignty? / October 21, 2011 / October 5, 2011
Total pondéré : / 112 / 121
For / 32% / 31%
Against / 47% / 49%
I don't know / 20% / 18%
I prefer not to answer / 1% / 2%
2. Deepness of Quebecers commitment to federalism and sovereignty
A follow up question reveals that amongst yes voters the 18-24 and 45-64 cohorts were the least likely to indicate a deep commitment to sovereignty.
Yes Voters / Total / Man / Woman / 18-24 / 25-34 / 35-44 / 45-54 / 55-64 / 65+Total pondéré : / 203 / 107 / 97 / 37 / 58 / 54 / 28 / 12 / 15
Total absolu : / 217 / 113 / 104 / 76 / 52 / 34 / 23 / 15 / 17
I wish deeply that Quebec becomes a sovereign country / 67% / 69% / 66% / 61% / 64% / 77% / 61% / 65% / 77%
I would prefer that Quebec becomes a sovereign country, but it is not very important to me / 31% / 30% / 31% / 35% / 34% / 23% / 39% / 27% / 23%
I am indifferent on whether or not that Quebec becomes a sovereign country, and I think it's a pointless debate / 0% / 1% / 0% / 0% / 0% / 0% / 0% / 8% / 0%
No answer / 1% / 0% / 3% / 5% / 2% / 0% / 0% / 0% / 0%
Similarly amongst No voters the 18-24 cohort was also the least committed. Overall however the No voters felt more deeply about their vision than did “Yes” voters.
No Voters / Total / Man / Woman / 18-24 / 25-34 / 35-44 / 45-54 / 55-64 / 65+Total pondéré : / 229 / 115 / 114 / 59 / 45 / 43 / 25 / 23 / 34
Total absolu : / 243 / 119 / 124 / 101 / 39 / 27 / 22 / 26 / 28
I wish deeply that Quebec continues to be part of Canada / 76% / 67% / 85% / 67% / 72% / 76% / 75% / 89% / 91%
I would prefer that Quebec continues to be part of Canada, but it is not very important to me / 17% / 26% / 7% / 24% / 25% / 10% / 21% / 11% / 3%
I am indifferent on whether or not that Quebec continues to be part of Canada, and I think it's a pointless debate / 7% / 6% / 7% / 8% / 4% / 14% / 4% / 0% / 6%
I prefer no answer / 0% / 1% / 0% / 2% / 0% / 0% / 0% / 0% / 0%
3. Affection for Canada and Support for Sovereignty
A series of surveys issued in December 2010 illustrated the relatively low degree of attachment to Canada on the part of Quebec youth. But after 145 years of marriage it might be argued that affection for Canada may not, on its own, be the sole determining factor in the desire for Quebecers to remain part of the country. The findings below reveal that Quebec youth exhibit a relatively weak sense of attachment compared to Canada compared with older cohorts. Yet as confirmed above, the levels of support for sovereignty are not much lower across the age spectrum.
Attachment to CanadaQuebec / Very attached / Somewhat attached / Not very attached / Not at all attached
18-24 / 14.5% / 40.6% / 27.5% / 13.0%
25-34 / 22.7% / 36.4% / 34.1% / 6.8%
35-44 / 24.7% / 42.5% / 26.0% / 5.5%
45-54 / 35.4% / 27.8% / 24.1% / 10.1%
55-64 / 38.3% / 31.9% / 21.3% / 6.4%
65-74 / 45.0% / 25.0% / 22.5% / 7.5%
While those less attached to Canada are less likely to vote against sovereignty, as observed, amongst the youngest cohort of francophones, 58% of those not very attached would vote “yes” (some 23% would vote “No” and 20% are undecided. In other words “strong” detachment from Canada does not automatically translate into a “yes” vote on a question of sovereignty.
Would vote yes in a referendum on sovereigntyFrancophones attachment to Canada / Very attached / Somewhat attached / Not very attached
18-24 / 11 / 30 / 58
25-34 / 19 / 33 / 78
35-44 / 24 / 15 / 72
45-54 / 29 / 18 / 69
55-64 / - / 22 / 89
65-74 / - / 29 / 61
4. Discourses of Federalism and Sovereignty
Jack Jedwab
The framing of debates around federalism and sovereignty has often been affected by the choice of words that are employed to appeal to persons reflecting on the relationship between Quebec and the rest of Canada.
French / English / OtherNationalism / 68% / 72% / 72%
Charter of Rights / 83% / 83% / 88%
Secession / 19% / 13% / 14%
Separatism / 40% / 7% / 8%
Canada / 72% / 96% / 94%
Federalism / 43% / 53% / 56%
Monarchy / 13% / 50% / 44%
Sovereignty / 52% / 51% / 46%