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-The sharp drop of the world stock markets’ indicescontinued in October
-- On 21st October the BNB amended Ordinance 21 on required minimum reserves
DEBT MARKETS
1. MONEY MARKET
In October2008 the interbank money market monthly volume decreased by 7.9 per cent below September to BGN 8204.4 million, resulting from a 11.7 per cent drop in the deposit lending deals volume to BGN 6932.7 million. In repo deals volume there was a 20.2 per cent rise to BGN 1271.7 million.
In October the total monthly volume of term transactions in Euromoney market dealing also decreased compared to September and here the decrease was both in depo deals volume, by 37.9 per cent to BGN 4278.4 million, and in repo deals, by 10.7 per cent to BGN 331.8 million.
The average daily excess reserves in October amounted to BGN84022 thousand afterBGN 35905million in September.The huge excess reserves in October are due to the change of the calculation method of the required minimum reserves made in the second half of the month, which decreased the required daily average level of reserves in the system and released extra resources. In 12calendar days altogether(from 1st to 3rd, and from 23rd to 31st October, including holidays) of the month there was relative resource shortage (negative excess reserves).
Liquidity in the banking system is influenced every month by monetary flows through government securities (bills and bonds of the Ministry of Finance), and in October there was a net inflow to banks of BGN 20.9 million as an increase in resources. Pension transfers amounted to BGN 600.0 million as an increase in resources, BGN 30 million more than in September.
1.1.Interbank market: deposit lending and repo transactions
1.1.1.Cashmarket
Depositlendingmaintainsaprevailingshareintheinterbankmoneymarketvolume, which for October has decreased to 84.5 per cent of interbank transactions, after88.1 per cent in September.It is commercial banks’ main tool for managing current daily liquidity.
1.1.1.1.Unsecured market
InOctober termunsecured depositlendingbetweenmarketparticipantsamounted toBGN6932.7million, and91.5 per cent of this (BGN 6341.5million) were overnight deals.
Commercialbanks, viaovernighttransactions, provideadditionalresourcesatthebeginningofeverymonthfortheregulationofrequiredminimumreservesandinthemiddleofthemonth for clients’ payments.
The monthly average for the overnight interest rate on unsecured deposit lending is an annual5.68%, 0.30 percentage points higher than the BIR (base interest rate, effective from the first calendar day of each month and equal to the simple average of the LEONIA reference rate values from the previous month), 5.38% in October.
1.1.1.2.Secured market
There was no secured deposit lending in October. The repo deals’share increased to 15.5 per cent of the total transactions volume (BGN 1271.7 million), after 11.9 per cent in September.
1.1.2.Derivatives market
Not yet developed in transactions between residents.
1.2.Outright purchases of securities on the secondary market
Ontheinterbanksecondarymarketforgovernmentsecurities,the amount of outright purchases in October increased more than 3 times compared to September. The rise results from an increase in the volume of BGNdenominatedgovernment securities trading from 9.9 down to BGN 31.9 million. EUR and USD denominated government securities trading remains insignificant, amounting to BGN 56 thousand.
This month dealswere again only in longerthan 12M securities.
On the Euromarket in October the total volume of outright purchases of government securities reached BGN 290.3 million after BGN 5.9 million in September.
2. CAPITAL MARKET
The following primary auction of government securities were carried out by the Bulgarian National Bank as agent of the Ministry of Finance in October:
-on 20thOctober for a batch of issue BG2030008119(5Y treasury bonds) with maturity date 20th February2013,at the amount of BGN30 million and4.25% annual interest.The Ministry of Finance approved orders at the amount of BGN 19.8 million.
In October the Bulgarian Stock Exchange – Sofia (BSE-Sofia) registered for trading on the unofficial market of bonds the following corporate bond issues:
-5Y bonds for EUR 10 million issued by HypoCredit AD - Sofia, interest: 6M Euribor + 3.125%, issue date: 30.07.2008, 6-month coupon payment, (stock-exchange code 9RTE);
-5Y bonds for BGN 1.25 million issued by Web Media Group - Sofia, interest: 8.25%, issue date: 19.03.2008, 3-month coupon payment, (stock-exchange code 45WA).
The monthly secondary market stock-exchange turnover of corporate bonds grew with 68% in Octoberamounting toBGN 24.5 million (a daily average of BGN 1.1 million) compared to BGN 14.6million in September.
Off-stock-exchange were concluded deals with bonds at the amount of BGN 0.9 million.
The pricesof EUR-denominated 2013 globalsfeltt underthe 100% mark, and of USD-denominated 2015 globals,dropped to the102%level.
On the secondary market the price of the compensation instruments fellbelowthe level of BGN 0.30 per item. The compensation instruments market turnover wasBGN 1.1 (a daily average of BGN 0.05million) compared with BGN 1.0 million inSeptember.Deals concluded off-stock- exchangein Octoberhad insignificant amount.
ASSET MARKETS
NET ASSETS:
equity
GROSS ASSETS:
real estate
commodities
forex
1. EQUITYCAPITAL (NET ASSETS)
The Bulgarian Stock Exchange – Sofia (BSE-Sofia) monthly turnover in Octoberincreased slightly,amounting toBGN84.6million(a daily average of BGN3.7million), compared to BGN 68.2million in September.For the month, the turnover in deals concluded off-stock-exchange (using the stock-exchange platform) was BGN 44.8 million.
The prices of the Bulgarian stock marketduring the month reflectedin general the heavily expressed negative trends ofthe leading world stockmarkets, but it continuied dropping at the month’s end contrary to the modest optimisms of the main stock markets
At the end of September the SOFIX index fell to the level unknown since May 2004,of492.18 points.
There were no placements on the IPO market of the BSE-Sofia in October.
2. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
In October 2008 the USD exchange rate against BGN was moving between the values of 1.38899 on the 1st October and 1.56969 on 27th October. The average USD exchange rate was 1.47004which is higher for a third month in a row – by more than 0.1 BGN.
In October the total turnover of the foreign exchange market reached EUR 56876.8 million. The average daily turnover was EUR 2472.9 million. The interbank turnover (without BNB) washigher by more than EUR 50 million than previous month’s value and reached EUR 194.9million. The USD trade between commercial banks was USD 55.6 million and comprised 21.3percent of interbank foreign exchange trading.
On the interbank market, the BNB purchased EUR 12669.2 million and sold EUR 12951.7 million. The amount of foreign exchange that the BNB sold to budgetary organizations (equal to EUR 35.5 million), exceeded BNB purchases (equal to EUR 7.3million) by EUR 28.2million.
The trade between commercial banks and customers amounted to EUR 5194.2million and the amount of foreign exchange that commercial banks sold (equal to EUR 2840.1 million) exceeded their purchases (equal to EUR 2354.0 million) by EUR 486.1 million.
Non-bank financial intermediaries, licensed by the BNB for foreign exchange trading, purchased foreign exchange equal to EUR 128.9 million and sold foreign currencies equal to EUR 133.0million.
TENDENCIES
Short-term expectations:
- with the usual volumes, rates to keep the levels above the euro area;
- the SOFIX to continue fluctuating;
- USD/BGN to move within 1.48 - 1.55.
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