Supplementary Table 1 | Natural history studies of MS: general characteristicsa

First authors / Location / Study period / Study type / G / # Patients / %
Lost / Age onset (y) / MS
duration (y) / F:M ratio / % RRMS / % SPMS / % PPMS / Diagnostic criteria / F/U
Kurtzke1,2 / US veterans / 1942–1963 / R;L / – / 527 / 5.6 / 25.2 / – / NA / – / – / Schumacher, D3 Allison & Millar, EP84 / 15
Kurtzke/Nagler/
Beebe5–8 / US veterans / 1942–1962 / R;L / – / 527 / 5.6 / 25.2 / – / NA / – / – / Schumacher, DP / –
Wallin/Kurtzke9,10 / US veterans / 1956–1996 / L / – / 5305 / – / 27.0 / – / NA / – / – / Schumacher, D / 40
Brønnum-Hansen11 / Denmark / 1948–1986 / Pr;L / + / 6727 / 0.4 / – / – / 1.3 / – / – / MacAlpine, DPP12 / –
Brønnum-Hansen13 / Denmark / 1948–2000 / Pr;L / + / 9881 / – / 34.3 / – / 1.5 / – / – / MacAlpine, DPP / –
Alter/Leibowitz14–17 / Israel / 1955–1959 / Pr;R / + / 282 / 5.7 / 32.6 / 11.5 / 1.1 / 63 / 37 / Alter, DPP / NA
Leibowitz/Kahana18–20 / Israel / 1960–1967 / Pr;L / + / 266 / 0 / 32.6 / 18.5 / 1.1 / 63 / 37 / Alter, DPP / 7
Svenningsson/
Runmarker21,22 / Gothenburg, Sweden / 1950–1988 / I;L / + / 255 / 1.6 / 32.5 / 15, 25 / 1.6 / 85.9 / 14.1 / Poser, DP23 / 15, 25
Eriksson/Broman24,25 / Gothenburg, Sweden / 1950–1988 / I;L / + / 212 / 0 / – / 25 / 2.4–1.4 / 100 / 0 / Poser, DP / 25
Riise26 / Hordaland/Vestfold, Norway / 1953–1983 / Pr;L / + / 598 / – / 32.7 / – / 2.1 / 78.9 / 21.1 / MacAlpine, DPP / 3
Myhr27 / Hordaland, Norway / 1976–1987 / Pr;L / + / 220 / – / 32.5 / 14.4 / 1.7 / 81.4 / 18.6 / Poser, DP / 8
Midgard28 / More/Romsdal, Norway / 1950–1984 / Pr;L / + / 251 / – / 33.6 / – / – / – / – / – / MacAlpine, DPP / 7
Gudmundsson29 / Iceland / 1957–1969 / Pr;L / + / 94 / – / 25.3 / 13.9 / 1.8 / 86.5 / 13.5 / Schumacher DP / –
Benedikz30 / Iceland / 1950–1999 / Pr;P / + / 373 / – / – / ~17.2 / 1.9 / 75 / 25 / Poser / 50
Confavreux31 / Lyon, France / 1957–1976 / H;C;L / + / 349 / – / 31.3 / ~9.3 / 1.5 / 58 / 24 / 18 / MacAlpine, DPP / 9
Vukusic32–37 / Lyon, France / 1957–1997 / C;L / + / 1844 / – / 31 / 11 / 1.8 / 58 / 27 / 15 / Poser, DP
PPMS: Schumacher / –
Minderhoud38 / Groningen, The Netherlands / 1962–1987 / Pr;L / + / 342 / – / – / >25 / 1.5 / 31 / 31.6 / 37.4 / Poser, DP / –
Ramsaransing39 / Groningen, The Netherlands / 1985– / C;L / + / 496 / – / 33.5 / >10 / 2.15 / 72.4 / 27.6 / Poser, DP / 10
Sumelahti40 / Southwest Finland / 1964–1993 / Pr;L / + / 1614 / – / 31.5 / >25 / 1.9 / 67 / 21 / Poser, D / –
Miller41 / Wellington, New Zealand / 1968–1983 / Pr;L / + / 209 / 8 / 32.2 / 14.8 / 2.5 / 64.6 / 30.1 / 5.3 / McDonald, DP42 / NA
Poser/Bauer43,44 / South Lower Saxony, Germany / 1961–1977 / Pr;P / + / 221 / – / 30 / 12.1 / 1.9 / 59.3 / 28.1 / 12.7 / Bauer, DP / 16
Poser45 / Germany / 1972–1985 / H,C;P / + / 2303 / 2 / – / – / 2.2 / 37.6 / 44.1 / 18.2 / Bauer, DP / 4.9
Lauer46 / Southern Hesse, Germany / 1980 / Pr;R / + / 363 / – / 46 / 15.6 / 2.0 / 44.6 / 37.5 / 17.9 / – / NA
Clark/Detels47,48 / Los Angeles County, USA / 1970–1979 / Pr;L / + / 886 / 11.4 / 33.4 / – / – / – / – / – / Schumacher DPb / 9
Visscher49 / Los Angeles County, USA / 1970–1980 / Pr;L / + / 941 / – / 33 / – / 2.4 / – / – / – / Schumacher DPb / 10
Shepherd50 / Northeast Scotland, UK / 1970 / Pr / + / 557 / – / 34.2 / 14.4 / 1.6 / 73.2 / 26.8 / Alter & Broman DPP / NA
Phadke51 / Northeast Scotland, UK / 1970–1981 / Pr;L / + / 1055 / – / 30-39 / 24.9 / 1.9 / 89 / 9 / Allison & Millar PEP / 11
Phadke51 / Northeast Scotland, UK / 1970–1981 / Pr;L / + / 672 / – / - / >10y duration only / 1.8 / 88.8 / 9.0 / Allison & Millar PEP / 11
Weinshenker (TP)52,53 / Ontario, Canada / 1972–1984 / C;L / + / 1099 / – / 30.5 / 11.9 / 1.9 / 65.8 / 18.7 / Poser, DPP / –
Kremenchutzky (TP)54 / Ontario, Canada / 1972–1997 / C;L / + / 1044 / 5.0 / 30.5 / 25 / – / 21.9 / 51.5 / 20.8 / Poser, DPP
PPMS: Ebers, DP / >13
Cottrell/Ebers (TP)55–57 / Ontario, Canada / 1972–1996 / C;L / + / 216 / 5.6 / 38.5 / 23.7 / 1.3 / 0 / 0 / 100 / PPMS: Ebers, DP / >12
Weinshenker (MC)52 / Middlesex County, Canada / 1972–1984 / Pr;L / + / 196 / – / 28.0 / 13.0 / 2.1 / 70.4 / 11.7 / Poser, DPP / –
Cottrell/Ebers (MC)55–57 / Middlesex County, Canada / 1972–1996 / Pr;L / + / 32 / – / 38.2 / 25.8 / – / 0 / 0 / 100 / PPMS: Ebers, DP / >12
Weinshenker (SO)52,58 / Ontario, Canada / 1972–1984 / C;O;P / + / 197 / – / 29.9 / 4.2 / 2.2 / 84.7 / 7.7 / Poser, DPP / 4.2
Cottrell (SS)56 / Ontario, Canada / 1991–1996 / C;P / + / 165 / – / ~38.5 / – / 1.3 / 0 / 0 / 100 / PPMS: Ebers, DP / >4
Kremenchutzky (TP)59 / Ontario, Canada / 1972–1997 / C;L / + / 770 / 1.4 / ~39 / 26.6 / 1.6 / 0 / 71.6c / 28.4 / Lublin, DP
PPMS: Ebers, DP / 25
Leray60 / Rennes, France / 1976–2004 / C;P / + / 1879 / 1.4 / 32.1 / 12.7 / 2.3 / 77.4 / 22.6 / Poser, D / 12.7
Tremlett/Sayao61,62 / British Columbia, Canada / 1988–2003 / C;L / + / 2837 / – / 30.6 / 17.2 / 1.1 / 87.6 / 12.4 / Poser, D / ~20
McDonnell63 / Northeast Northern Ireland, UK / 1978–1996 / Pr:L / + / 254 / – / 31.6 / 18.4 / 2.3 / 47.9 / 39.6 / 12.5 / Poser, DP / –
McDonnell64 / Northern Ireland, UK / 1982–1996 / Pr;L / + / 111 / – / 39.5 / 13.6 / 1.3 / 0 / 0 / 100 / Lublin, DP / –
Hawkins65 / Northeast Northern Ireland, UK / 1978–1996 / Pr;L / + / 181 / – / 30.1 / 23; >10y duration only / 2.4 / 92.3 / 7.7 / Poser, DP / –
Amato66 / Florence, Italy / 1983–1996 / H;L / + / 224 / 4.9 / 29.7 / ~10.8 / 1.8 / 84.8 / 15.2 / Poser, DP
PPMS: Schumacher / 9.78
Hammond67,68 / Australia / 1981 / Pr;R / + / 2934 / 2.9 / ~32 / ~12 / 2.4 / 48.9 / 32.5 / 18.2 / Rose DPPd / –
Pekmezovic69,70 / Belgrade, Yugoslavia / 1985–1996 / Pr;R / + / 823 / 3 / 32.2 / >25 / 1.9 / 50.7 / 36.5 / 12.9 / Poser, D / NA
Sundstrom71 / Vasterbotten, Sweden / 1988–2001 / I; L / + / 133 / 7 / 34 (med) / 18 / 1.8 / 84.5 / 18.5 / Poser, DP / 4
Sundstrom72 / Vasterbotten, Sweden / 1997–2001 / Pr;L / + / 399 / 9 / 30 (med) / 16 / 1.9 / 84.3 / 15.3 / Poser, DP / 4
Mahr/Pittock73–75 / Olmsted County, USA / 1991–2001 / Pr;L / + / 162 / 0.6 / 28.5 (med) / 15.4 (med) / 3.0 / 58 / 28 / 14 / Poser D / 10
Rodriguez76 / Olmsted County, USA / 2000 / Pr;R / + / 201 / – / 31.2 (med) / 19.3 (med) / 2.3 / 65 / 29.9 / 5.5 / Poser D / NA

aMean in years unless stated as median (med). bIncluding both supratentorial and subtentorial lesions. cMean age designated from progression; 12.9% of SPMS defined as SAP (single attack followed by progression). dConsidered equivalent to Allison & Millar’s probable, early probable, and possible groups. Abbreviations and key: –, not provided; C, clinic-based; D, clinically definite; DP, clinically definite and probable; DPP, clinically definite; duration, duration of MS since onset; E, early probable; F/U, prospective follow-up period; G, geographically-based; H, hospitalized, I, incidence; L, longitudinal; lost, subjects removed from the study due to any reason other than not having MS; MC, Middlesex County; MS, multiple sclerosis; NA, not applicable; O, seen from onset; P, prospective; Pr, prevalence; R, retrospective; PPMS, probable and possible MS; TP, total population; TP rev, total population revised; SO, seen from onset; SS, second series.

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