BioPower Report – Renewable Energy
The BioPower Report
Renewable Energy Generation in Ireland;
Job Creation and Emission Savings
Compiled by
BioPower Group plc
29th July 2009
BioPower Group plc : 48 Main Street, Schull, Co. Cork :
Tel: # 353 28 27837 :
2009
BioPower Report – Renewable Energy
The BioPower Report
Renewable Energy Generation in Ireland;
Job Creation and Emission Savings
Copyright
©BioPower Group plc, 2009.
Disclaimer
Although every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material contained in this Report, complete accuracy cannot be guaranteed. BioPower Group plc does not accept any responsibility whatsoever for loss or damage occasioned, or claimed to have been occasioned, in part or in full as a consequence of any person acting or refraining from acting, as a result of any matter contained in this Report.
Contents
1.0Executive Summary
2.0Introduction
3.0Background
3.1World Peak Oil Production
3.2Climate Change
3.3Renewable Energy
4.0Ireland’s Renewable Resources
4.1 Hydro and Small Scale Hydro Generation
4.2 Wind Energy
4.3 BioEnergy
4.3.1 Anaerobic Digestion
4.3.1.1 Quantities of Sludge and Biodegradable Industrial Waste
4.3.2 The BioPark® System
5.0 Renewable Energy Potential in Ireland
5.1 Wind Power
5.1.1 Wave Power.
5.1.2 Tidal Energy.
5.1.3 Biomass and BioFuels
5.1.4 Solar Energy
5.1.4.1 Solar Thermal
5.1.4.2 Solar Photovoltaic
5.1.5 Geothermal Energy
6.0 The Necessity for Change
7.0 Summary and Conclusions
1.0Executive Summary
Ireland relies heavily on imported oil and gas for its energy requirement. In fact Ireland is one of the most fossil fuel dependent countries in the world. We have some natural gas but practically no oil reserves. We are ‘end of the line’ as regards fuel imports and are particularly vulnerable to any scarcity or interruptions to supply. Our energy provisions are not secure.The concept of Peak Oil is now universally accepted; we have either reached the peak or we are about to do so in the very near future. Peak gas and peak coal are not far behind. The era of cheap fossil fuel is rapidly coming to an end. In addition to this are Ireland’s obligations under the Kyoto Protocol and European Union Directives. Ireland must reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. It can no longer afford the luxury of borrowing to pay for carbon emission fines
These are just some of the driving forces for change notwithstanding the fact that Ireland is experiencing the most serious economic challenges of recent times. We are in the midst of a severe crisis with unemployment rising daily. Our farming and fishing communities are particularly hard hit yet in 2008 we spent over €6,000,000,000 importing foreign oil. We must act now to reverse this situation. We have an abundance of opportunities: Renewable Energy can be harnessed from wind, wave and tidal sources; solar thermal, solar photovoltaic and geothermal energy is copiously available and raw material for biomass energy production is obtainable in vast quantities.Investment in these areas has many benefits for our economy: increased employment; reduced carbon dioxide emissions; increased energy security and reduced overseas payments.
Ireland has the technology, the resources and a skilled workforce capable of building this developing industry. Renewable energy has the potential to revive our economy and create a vibrant industry full of new employment opportunities. We must act now to ensure that we become a market leader not only in resource development but also in the export of technological expertise.
The main findings of this report are as follows:
- Ireland has an abundance of untapped renewable energy resources
- A combination of these renewable resources can give Ireland a secure, dependable and predictable energy supply
- We can attain self sufficiency and become an exporter of green electricity to our European neighbours through the existing and planned Interconnectors
- The industry has the potential to create 80,000 new and sustainable jobs;
- reduce carbon dioxide emissions by many millions of tonnes;
- revitalise the agricultural sector;
- create new opportunities in the marine sector;
- substantially reduce overseas payments by billions of euros;
- enable Ireland to comply with our Kyoto Protocol commitments and European Union Directives
2.0Introduction
There has been a lot of discussion in recent years about dwindling oil reserves and how they can be replaced by renewable energy technology. Ireland has the potential to becomea world leader in this developing industry. With this in mind, BioPower Group plc has undertaken a desktop study based on existing information to examine the potential in the areas of biomass resources, renewable energy generation, the employment potential within this developing industry and the opportunity it presents to radically reduce carbon emissions. BioPower recognises that this exercise is not an exact science. There is inherent uncertaintywhich may not provide definitive answers to quantify resource and employment potential. However, it is hoped that this report will provide a basis of knowledge for future discussion on renewable energy and assist future tracking of the sector.
In the following sections, we examine existing renewable energy generation and resources which are available for use; we examine employment and the implications if these were to be utilised; the potential quantity of renewable energy that could be generated through replacing fossil fuels with renewable alternatives; and the amount of greenhouse gas that could be off-set against the Kyoto Protocol and European Union Directives. A summary table of the current status of the varying resources has been included, which can be modified to enable a dynamic document to manage and observe future changes and trends in the sector.
3.0Background
The emphasis on green technology relating to renewable energy generation and fuel production is driven by a growing awareness of the implications of peak oil production and climate change. Incorporated in peak oil production is concern over Ireland’s energy supply security.
3.1World Peak Oil Production
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) believes that the peak in global oil production has now been reached.The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that conventional sources will peak by 2020.The peak and decline of world oil production has obvious implications for the world’s oil-fuelled economy. It is therefore essential to ensure that realistic technological, economic and political strategies for the warding off of the impacts of a decline in conventional oil supply are developed and implemented.
Ireland imports 90% of its energy needs.Ireland’s consumption of oil has risen rapidly over the past decade as a result of general economic growth and the specific growth in transport which is almost exclusively oil based. Ireland now ranks third in the EU in terms of oil consumed per capita. Oil demand continues to remain the dominant energy source in Ireland with that dominance increasing from a share of 46% in 1990 to 53% in 2006.
3.2Climate Change
Climate change is widely regarded as one of the greatest challenges the world faces. Ireland has obligations under both the Kyoto Protocol and under the EU 2020 binding targets.Under the Kyoto Protocol, Ireland must limit its annual greenhouse gas emissions to an average of 62.8 million tonnes of CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent) per year in the period 2008-2012. This is 13% above the baseline 1990 estimate.Under the EU 2020 binding targets, Ireland must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% (but possibly up to 30%) on 2005 levels by 2020 in the non-trading sector, such sectors are not covered by the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The non-trading sector consists of agriculture, transport, residential and other sectors, but excludes the energy and large industrial sectors.Agriculture currently accounts for 27 per cent of all emissions and 40 per cent of emissions in the non-trading sector[1].
Ireland is not meeting its greenhouse gas emission commitments under Kyoto. The key sectors contributing to greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland are agriculture, energy and transport. Most recent projections published by the EPA[2] show emissions are reducing due to the impact of the slowdown in the economy. The EPA estimate the government’s purchasing requirement, or need for additional domestic policies and measures, would reduce to 1.3-1.8 million tonnes of CO2e per annum for each of the five years 2008-2012 as compared to the 3.6 million tonnes per annum anticipated in the National Climate Change Strategy. The projections depend on relevant policies and measures being implemented, delivered on time and achieving the full anticipated emissions reductions and in particular, investments in energy efficiency measures and renewable energies.
3.3Renewable Energy
The European Union Renewable Energy Directive was agreed in December 2008.The Directive will require Member States to implement binding national targets scheduled to the year 2020. Ireland has to achieve a target of 16% from renewable energy and will have to clearly indicate how they will meet these targets through detailed national action plans. The EU Commission will monitor these plans and launch infringement procedures against Member States who fail to implement the programme.The Directive makes reference to use of National support schemes such as investment aid; tax exemptions or reductions; tax refunds;renewable energy obligation support schemes, including those using green certificates; and direct price support schemes, including feed-in tariffs and premium paymentsto meet these targets.
Transport is a very significant energy user.EU and national targets have been established via the EU BioFuels Directive, the National Government’s BioEnergy Action Plan and the Irish Government White paper on a Sustainable Energy Future for Ireland. The Renewable Energy Directive maintains the BioFuels 10% binding target, but all renewable energy sources can contribute to achieving the target, including electricity from renewable sources and second generation BioFuels.It is likely that the electrification of the transport sector will tend to increase electricity consumption and alter the demand profile in future years.
The EU Directive 2001/77/EC promotesthe production of electricity from renewable energy sources, and EU Directive 2003/30/EC promotes the use of BioFuels or other renewable fuels for transport. Member States have adapted National programmes to encourage the rate of renewable energy under these Directives.Measures used include the use of attractive feed-in tariffs for electricity originating from renewable energy.
It is worth noting that renewable sources can be used to provide heat, electricity and transport fuel. The heat sector is often neglected when renewable energy is discussed.
4.0Ireland’s Renewable Resources
Most of our energy needs are still coming from imported fossil fuels, despite Ireland having substantial renewable resources in wind, wave tide and bioEnergy.
The Irish Government has stated its key objectives in the renewable energy area in the Energy White Paper, published in March 2007 and subsequent commitments. (Table 2) The Government White Paper on Energy states that it is Government policy for 15% of electricity consumption to come from renewable sources by 2010, rising to 33% by 2020. In 2008, the Government increased the 2020 target to 40%. The most significant contribution to this target is likely to be wind energy but other renewable energy technologies will also be deployed. The 2020 target in particular represents an unprecedented technical challenge for the nationalgrid; however an all-island grid study showed that that it is feasible to generate 42% of our electricity from renewable sources by that date. Achievement of the contribution of renewable energy to the areas identified in Table 2 would approximate to Ireland’s renewable energy obligation for 2020 under the Renewable Energy Directive.
Table 2 National Targets (White Paper on Energy 2007)
2010 / 2020Electricity / 15% / 33% Note 1
BioFuel / 5.75% Note 2 / 10%
Heat / 5% / 12%
Note 1: 2008 the Government increased the 2020 target to 40%
Note 2: 2008 the Government changed target to 3.75 % calculated on the basis of energy content
Renewable energy accounted for 2.9% of the total primary energy requirement in 2007. Electricity from renewable energy almost doubled between 1990 and 2007 from 4.9% to 9.4%. To achieve the 15% target by 2010 will require 4,800 GWh. In 2007, electricity generated from renewables totalled 2,758 GWh. It will have to grow by 74% over the period 2008-2010 to meet the 15% renewable target or by 346 MW wind capacity in addition to a doubling of biomass capacity[3].Figure 2 shows the increase in installed renewable capacity from 2004 to 2008.In terms of energy demand, the economic downturn is likely to have an impact on short-term growth. The positive impact of energy efficiency measures and the transition to a less energy intensive economy will also act to reduce demand growth in the medium to long term.
Figure 2 Increase in Installed Renewable Capacity from 2004 to 2008
Source: Eirgrid Quarterly Review of the Irish Electricity System, Issue 25/ Winter 2008
The Eirgrid Generation Adequacy Report 2009 – 2015[4] provides forecasts for renewable generation aligned with government policy as set down in the March 2007 White Paper – ‘Delivering a Sustainable Energy Future for Ireland’.These are presented in Table 2.Eirgrid forecast that renewable generation for 2008 will provide 3.4 TWh. In the case of the 40% target, 9.8 TWh would have to come from renewables in 2015, growing to 15.6 TWh by 2020.
Table 2 Renewable Generation Capacity Forecasts
Year End / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015Small Scale Hydro (MW) / 24 / 24 / 24 / 24 / 24 / 24 / 24
Biomass (MW) / 39 / 46 / 52 / 58 / 65 / 71 / 77
Wind Powered Generation (MW) / 1248 / 1429 / 1723 / 2017 / 2231 / 2606 / 2900
The following sections detail the various renewable resources available in Ireland and presents current status information.
4.1 Hydro and Small Scale Hydro Generation
There are four hydro plants contributing electricity to the grid (Erne 65MW, Liffey 38MW, Ardnacrusha 86MW and Lee 27MW).Turlough Hill (292MW) is not included as electricity produced in storage units from water that has previously been pumped uphill is not considered to be electricity produced from renewable energy sources[5].
Small scale hydro is assumed to have reached a limit based on current and projected capacity in the queue for grid connection (total of 24MW)[6]. Currently capacity has been estimated at 22.6 MW, yielding 51 GWh per year, (approximately 0.2 % of system demand).
4.2 Wind Energy
Data dated 01/03/09 on the Irish Wind Energy Association (IWEA)[7] web site indicates that there are 113 wind farms and 1,032 turbines on-line and operational in 21 counties on the island of Ireland.The grid connected and operational installed wind capacity on the island of Ireland is 1255.5 MW which will on average generate 3,409,436 MWh in a year given a 31% load or capacity factor.
The current wind energy technological limitations, e.g. when electricity generation is extremely low due to reduced wind speeds across the country, means it is highly unlikely to meet the future annual total electricity demand of Ireland.The most likely long term sustainable solution to Ireland’s electrical needs would be the contribution provided by other renewable energies such as wave, tidal, biomass and solar in addition to wind energy.
Total installed wind capacity as of September 2008 was 915 MW. An additional 400 MW of wind and biomass capacity will need to be added to the electricity network by 2010 to meet Ireland's target of 15% of electricity to be produced from renewable sources. Plans for grid connection of wind in the coming period suggest this target is within reach.[8]Very significant amounts of wind power generation (WPG) capacity need to be integrated into the system if Ireland is to remain on track to meet the renewable energy target of 33% by 2020. Current projections estimate that 4371 MW would have to be connected by 2020 to meet the 33% target. This rises to 5405 MW to achieve a 40% target in 2020.[9]
Employment opportunities within the wind industry include requirements for qualified electrical and mechanical engineers to oversee the operation of the turbines and the internal electrical systems. Computational analysts are required to assess the projected generation output systems in terms of the constant updating of notification of generation ability to the grid operator. Administrative personnel are required for companies involved in the industry. The IWEA expects a sharp rise in employment opportunities within the industry over the next number of years, with up to 16,000 new jobs created with investment in the wind industry to deliver Ireland's renewable energy target by 2020.
Micro wind which is beginning to become popular is a greatly underutilised resource. We estimate there are at least 50,000 very suitable sites along the western and south western seaboards. These are sites where the wind speed averages greater than 6m/second on an annualised basis. Now that the ESB is to pay up to 19c/KWh, it is anticipated that demand to install wind turbines of up to 11KW will increase. Based on an average rated wind turbine of 6KW, producing an average of 2KW/h, the total annual electricity production would amount to almost 788GWh/year. This is sufficient to provide electricity to 175,000 homes and prevent over 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide being emitted into the atmosphere.
Wave resource for Europe is of the order of 320,000 MW with the highest resources available near the west coast of Ireland.It is estimated that the practical wave energy resource offshore is greater than 6,000 MW per annum. The corresponding European marine tidal current energy resource is estimated to be sufficient for 13,700MW of generation capacity. The ocean energy resource available to Ireland has a potential to supply 100% and 6% of the forecasted All Ireland electricity demand from wave and tidal energy sources respectively.The potential is there for wave energy to be a significant contributor towards Ireland's future energy requirements.
The practical resource for tidal energy in Ireland is approx 2,633 GWh/year. Seagen™ has a tidal generator based at Strangford Lough in Northern Ireland. According to Seagen™, it has a rated power of 1.2MW and provides the grid with 3.8GWh/year. In the process it powers 1,140 homes and prevents the emission of 1,695 tonnes of carbon dioxide being emitted each year. Tidal power is, for all intents and purposes, the most predictable of the renewable energy sources.
Regarding ocean energy capacity and the 2020 targets, the Programme for Government sets an interim target of 75 MW of ocean energy connected by 2012.It is planned to have 1900 jobs created by 2020.A price support scheme for ocean energy electricity of €0.22KWh has been set through the renewable energy feed in tariff scheme (REFIT).