Online Table I: Prognostic Value of Clinical, Radiographic, Molecular and MRI-Based Risk

Online Table I: Prognostic value of clinical, radiographic, molecular and MRI-based risk factors: Mean values and variability in participants with radiographic knee osteoarthritis (ROA) who displayed no change in cartilage thickness (no progresssion) versus those who displayed cartilage THICKENING over 24 months

ROA no change ROA thickening

(n=45) (n=11) Percent AUC p-value

Risk Factor Mean SD Mean SD Differ (ROC) (Wilcoxon)

Age (years) 58.4 8.1 57.7 8.5 -1.1 0.486 0.9671

BMI (kg/m2) 33.7 6.6 37.1 5.6 10.1 0.638 0.1694

Womac_pain 5.1 3.9 7.7 3.5 52.5 0.689 0.0539

Womac_stiffness 2.4 1.7 2.9 1.5 21.2 0.568 0.4807

Womac_function 16.7 13.9 27.5 15.1 64.1 0.693 0.0407

OP_score_MT 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 -23.3 0.484 0.3613

OP_score_cMF 0.2 0.6 0.5 1.0 206.8 0.590 0.1283

JSN_score_MFTC 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7 -43.6 0.452 0.2593

mJSW (mm) 4.0 0.9 4.0 0.6 0.0 0.513 0.9179

Anat. alignm. axis (°) 181.3 2.4 180.9 3.6 -0.2 0.553 0.6870

ln sIntactPINP 3.69 0.37 3.70 0.51 0.4 0.525 0.8708

ln sCTXI -1.36 0.64 -1.40 0.52 -2.5 0.497 0.9671

ln pNPII 0.46 0.90 0.92 0.73 100.2 0.661 0.0659

ln uTINE_Cr 3.18 0.69 3.17 0.60 -0.5 0.504 0.9838

ln sCPII 5.87 0.36 5.95 0.38 1.5 0.583 0.4035

ln sPIIANP 6.60 0.75 6.69 0.59 1.4 0.537 0.5821

ln uCTXII_Cr 5.35 0.59 5.27 0.50 -1.4 0.524 0.7603

ln uARGS_Cr -0.78 0.71 -0.93 0.66 -20.0 0.579 0.5127

ln sCOMP 2.36 0.28 2.28 0.28 -3.3 0.558 0.5636

ln uTIINE-Cr 4.46 0.61 4.37 0.61 -2.1 0.499 0.8708

ln p15HETE 5.63 0.62 5.68 0.52 0.9 0.560 0.4961

ln pPGE2 3.75 0.95 4.40 0.72 17.1 0.679 0.0634

ln uOsteop_Cr 1.31 1.10 1.89 1.53 44.0 0.634 0.1897

ln sPIIINP 1.32 0.34 1.30 0.24 -1.7 0.536 0.7102

ln uTIIINE_Cr 5.45 0.71 5.68 0.92 4.1 0.570 0.6109

ln p3-NT 7.25 0.40 7.40 0.55 2.0 0.519 0.6426

Menisc_height (mm) 0.25 0.12 0.20 0.13 -18.9 0.583 0.3520

Menisc_sublux (mm) 0.42 0.17 0.47 0.19 12.0 0.585 0.3825

Meniscus_%Cover 12.93 8.60 11.45 8.35 -11.5 0.532 0.8203

ThCtAB_MT (mm) 1.67 0.19 1.64 0.17 -1.8 0.547 0.6545

ThCtAB_cMF (mm) 1.80 0.24 1.71 0.24 -4.9 0.586 0.4147

dGEMRIC_Me_MT 498.51 88.71 481.64 96.18 -3.4 0.532 0.7143

dGEMRIC_Me_cMF 551.45 99.99 518.00 117.65 -6.1 0.606 0.2879

dGEMRIC_SD_MT 105.48 36.33 108.86 38.64 3.2 0.539 0.7604

dGEMRIC_SD_cMF 126.62 40.79 117.50 47.54 -7.2 0.565 0.4266

T2_Me_MT 46.23 6.52 46.45 5.19 0.5 0.512 1.0000

T2_Me_cMF 54.92 8.39 50.41 5.23 -8.2 0.675 0.0491

T2_SD_MT 16.10 2.97 16.56 1.36 2.9 0.518 0.8548

T2_SD_cMF 17.64 3.39 16.23 1.88 -8.0 0.698 0.0570

The table reports bivariate analyses (progression vs. no progression) without adjustment for other factors.

p value = level of significance of differences between ROA knees with cartilage thickening versus those without significant change, determined using the Wilcoxon Rank Sum test (Fisher Exact test was used for ordinal variables, i.e. OP and JSN scores). A p-value given in italics was significant at p<0.05 before (but not after) correction for multiple testing using false discover rates (FDR); for other abbreviations, please see Table 1.