I. Curriculum Learning Outcomes
General / Specific / Knowledge Dimension / Level of Thinking1. Be able to analyze the evidence that Earth’s global climate is changing / 1.1 Explain the difference between weather and climate, global and local / Factual, conceptual / Understand
1.2 Describe the forcings and processes which shape the Earth’s global climate / Factual / Remember
1.3 Evaluate the evidence of a changing global climate / Conceptual / Evaluate
1.4 Classify the above forcings by their relative role in causing global climate changes / Procedural / Analyze
2. Be able to explain scientific predictions about future changes / 2.1 Explain why climate scientists use global climate models / Metacognitive / Create
2.2 Create and test a hypothesis using a global climate model / Procedural, Metacognitive / Create
2.3 Evaluate hypothesis, compare alternatives and communicate findings / Procedural, Metacognitive / Evaluate
3. Gain scientific process and modeling skills / 3.1 Identify key characteristics of “good science” / Factual / Understand, Remember
3.2 Apply characteristics to examining erroneous/accurate claims about AGCC / Conceptual / Apply
3.3 Demonstrate science research skills in examining information / Metacognitive / Apply
4. Examine the policy debate over AGCC as it relates to the science / 4.1 Critique the global policy response (Paris Agreement/Kyoto Protocol) to AGCC / Conceptual / Evaluate
4.2 Propose alternative responses / Conceptual / Create
4.3 Analyze obstacles to individual and collective action on this problem / Conceptual, Metacognitive / Analyze
II. Pre/Post Diagnostic Exam
The numbers placed at the end of each question indicate the specific learning outcome to which they correspond.
EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE DIAGNOSTIC EXAM JOHN ABBOTT COLLEGE
Student Name: ______Date: ______
Multiple-choice: [2.5 points each; 50 total]
Choose the answer choice that best answers each question.
1. Which of these is NOT a greenhouse gas? [1.4]
A. Ozone (O3)
B. Water vapor (H2O)
C. Chlorofluorocarbon (CFCs)
D. Nitrogen (N2)
2. Which of these is the best definition of climate at a given locality? [1.1]
A. Climate is both weather conditions and the variability of those conditions
B. Climate is the average weather of a place (usually for 30 years)
C. Climate describes the relationship between precipitation and vegetation
D. Climate refers to the average temperature and precipitation
3. How do scientists come to a scientific consensus? [3.1]
A. By writing a 50-page mathematical proof
B. Through an organized accumulation of evidence
C. Through debate on a scientific question
D. Asking skeptic’s opinions on blogs and elsewhere
4. Which statement best describes the primary impact of a volcanic eruption on the global climate? [1.2]
A. Molten magma and hot ash scorches surrounding lands changing local temperatures
B. Carbon dioxide emitted from the volcano causes significant warming in the troposphere
C. Sulfur particles emitted into the stratosphere contribute to a net cooling for up to a decade
D. A volcano’s impacts are limited to a few months after eruption and are not important
5. What is one of the major differences between a global climate model from the 1980’s and the 2000’s? [2.2]
A. Inclusion of ocean circulation
B. Increased resolution
C. Dynamic vegetation
D. All of the above
6.
Examine the above graph created by a global climate model. Do you think that the doubling of carbon dioxide in the “Doubled_CO2” run of the model took place as: [2.1]
A. An initial condition
B. As a boundary condition
C. Steadily over time
D. After the model began
7. Look back at the graph in question 6. If the “Doubled_CO2” run can be said to have reached equilibrium around 2010, what could have prevented the climate from ever reaching this state? [2.1]
A. Positive feedbacks
B. Negative feedbacks
C. A long-term, continuous climate forcing
D. All of the above
8. Does a global climate model: [2.1]
A. Include the sun's contribution to warming our world
B. Include the atmosphere or ocean, or both
C. Allow understanding of long-term changes in greenhouse gases
D. All of the above.
9. What should climate scientists do when comparing the results from global climate models developed by different research groups? [2.3]
A. Run the same experiment with each model and compare the results
B. Subtract control run results from any experimental results to focus on the degree of change
C. Run a test to compare how well model results exactly reproduce historic climate records
10. Which of the following are sources of error (or uncertainty) in the instrumental temperature record? [1.3]
A. The urban heat island effect
B. Changes in land-use patterns
C. Differences in data collection techniques
D. Incomplete coverage of the world
E. All of the above
11. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change proposed that by the year 2000 the signatory countries should: [4.1]
A. Halve global emissions of greenhouse gases
B. Bring greenhouse gas emissions back to no more than their 1990 levels
C. Stop emitting greenhouse gases
D. Implement technology to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere
12. One of the ways scientists measure the decreasing mass of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is by: [1.3]
A. Measuring inputs and outputs from the ice sheet in its drainage areas
B. Examining the change in regional gravitational fields as satellites cross these regions.
C. Measuring the change in distance from an ice sheet to a satellite
D. All of the above
13. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) statement that the observed increase in global average temperatures “is very likely due to the observed increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations” means: [4.3]
A. Greenhouse gases likely are a cause along with other important natural factors
B. More than 50% of scientists agree this is the major cause
C. There is 90% certainty this is the cause by IPCC metrics
D. Humans play no role in rising global average temperatures
14. In climate change science, the term mitigation refers to: [4.1]
A. Preparing human communities for the impacts of a warming world
B. Technologies that might reduce concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
C. Attempts to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases
D. None of the above choices
15. A summer time heat wave like that experienced in North America in 2012 provides conclusive evidence that: [4.3]
A. Global average temperatures are increasing
B. Climate changes may mean increasing variability in local temperatures
C. Other events like increasing numbers of hurricanes also are due to climate change
D. None of the above
16. In the greenhouse effect, the upper atmosphere primarily traps? [1.4]
A. Thermal or infrared radiation re-emitted from the planet
B. Solar radiation hitting the planet from the sun
C. Gamma radiation emitted from atomic decay in the atmosphere
D. Radio radiation emitted from natural sources from the surface of the planet
17. The majority of climate scientists agree: [3.2]
A. Climate change is taking place
B. Results from climate models vary making it unclear if global climate is changing
C. Climate change is taking place, but the causes are unclear
D. Evidence from past climates show Earth is at equilibrium allowing only small shifts in temperature
18. When a climate scientist takes part in reviewing published scientific articles for inclusion in a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), he or she is undertaking what part of the scientific process: [3.2]
A. Formulating hypotheses
B. Skepticism
C. Communicating findings
D. Building scientific consensus
19. If a scientist encountered the statement “Far back in time, global warming episodes had nothing to do with carbon dioxide levels,” one of the best ways he or she might scientifically verify such information is by: [3.3]
A. Consulting Internet resources that quote well-known scientists
B. Determining what conditions prevailed on the planet during past warm periods
C. Examining peer-reviewed articles that contain carbon dioxide records correlated to temperature
D. Reading or listening to media sources that reports on the topic and draw from scientific articles
20. A feasible alternative to the Kyoto Protocol would be to: [4.2]
A. Create an international trading regime by which to lessen emissions of greenhouse gases
B. For the United Nations to levy a carbon tax on member countries
C. Invest in strengthening community health, local infrastructure and conservation
D. For militaries to spray aerosols in the atmosphere to reduce incoming solar radiation
Short Answer Questions: [4 points each; 20 total]
Please answer the following questions with one or two-sentence answers only.
21. What are two observations (other than global temperature records) that suggest that global warming is already changing some earth systems? [1.3]
22. Why have concentrations of greenhouse gases continued to rise in the atmosphere despite the establishment of the Kyoto Protocol? [4.1]
23.
The above map produced by a global climate model is called an anomaly map. In one sentence, describe what this means. In a second sentence, explain why scientists produce such maps with global climate models. [2.1]
24. Give an example of two things non-scientists misunderstand about the process of science (how science “works”) that affect the policy response to the problem. [4.3]
25. Explain how Svante Arrhenius first calculating the effect of doubled carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 1896 represents an example of deductive reasoning. [3.1]
Essay Questions: [15 points each; 30 total]
Choose TWO out of four of the following questions to answer. If you answer all the questions, only the first two will be graded.
26. Discuss three factors that influence global climate and their relative importance in terms of causing increases in global average temperatures. One of your factors MUST be human emitted greenhouse gases and you must explain the greenhouse effect. Where appropriate, give specific examples discussed in class of each factor. [1.4]
27. You have learned about global warming and energy consumption. Describe 1) individual actions that can be taken to reduce CO2 emissions, and 2) the three main collective courses of action (not by individuals) that need to be taken in order for the global society to reduce CO2 emissions and avoid the serious consequences of passing a climate system tipping point. [4.2]
28. A. Describe what it means for a global climate model to be tested using the process of hindcasting.
B. Describe how testing a model against the instrumental temperature record suggests that carbon dioxide must cause climate change?
C. Make an argument as to whether global climate models accurately predict future conditions. Be sure to include specific reasons from what you have learned about global climate models (Hint: Remember the difference between weather and climate in making your argument). [2.1]
29. A. Describe three features of good science that Naomi Oreskes describes in her Howard Hughes Holiday Lecture entitled “How do we know we are not wrong?” Alternatively, you can describe three features that we covered in class.
B. Next consider the evidence that global average temperatures are increasing and the likely cause is human emissions of greenhouse gases. Make an argument as to whether the science of climate change fits with the three features you describe in the first part of this essay. [3.1]
III. Rubrics for Short Answer and Essay Questions
Each rubric pertains only to the short answer and essay questions for each general learning outcome. There were equal numbers of each type of question for each general outcome on the test.
A. Rubric For Learning Outcome 1
Short Answer Question 21 (4 points total)
Students were awarded two points for any of the following correct answers:
1. Instrumental temperature records.
2. Satellite temperature records.
3. Melting mountain glaciers.
4. Melting ice sheets in Antarctica or Greenland.
5. Melting sea ice.
6. Sea-level rise.
7. Any number of biological and physical changes reported by the IPCC such as earlier springtime events like bird migrations, leaf unfolding and greening or changes to the thermoclines of lakes and rivers.
Essay Question 26 (15 points total)
Part A
Five points for correctly stating that concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere is rising due to human activities including fossil fuel burning, landuse change, agricultural practices and other potential correct answers. These gases possess a chemical composition that allows them to have a Dipole Moment and absorb and re-emit long-wave/thermal radiation being emitted from the planet. Such radiation is what is re-emitted by the surface of the planet after it has absorbed incoming solar radiation. Known as the Greenhouse Effect, this process causes warming in the atmosphere.
Students were marked off:
1. Three points for forgetting to explain the greenhouse effect.
2. Two points for missing that the rise in GHGs is due to human causes.
3. Two points for stating that GHGs primarily trap the sun’s incoming solar radiation or reflected incoming solar radiation
Part B
Five points were awarded for each of any two of the following natural forcings:
1. Volcanoes– Contributes to a short-term cooling effect that seldom lasts longer than a decade due to the emission of sulfur/ash particles which reflect incident solar radiation, contributing to the parasol effect. Volcanoes also emit a small of amount of CO2 that is far smaller than human emissions. Students can also received partial credit fortalking about Mt. Pinatubo.
2. The Sun– Is definitely very important to the climate system as the main source of solar energy, but (along with faint young sun idea) is only increasing output extremely slowly over the course of millions of years. Furthermore, a cycle involving solar spots and flares indicates the sun only varies by about 0.01% on an 11-year cycle. We are currently close to the end of a cycle that is dropping and thus the sun could not be correlated to warming temperatures. Finally, the sun would not warm the atmosphere unequally as we are seeing now with the Greenhouse Effect primarily taking place in the troposphere.
3. Astronomical Variation/Milankovitch Cycles – Is a cause of variations in the climate record (in combination with other factors) that have triggered ice ages and interglacial periods. It could not cause today’s climate shifts because these cycles occur on the order of 10,000s or 100,000s of years with the main one’s being precession, obliquity or axial tilt. Students may also receive partial credit for discussing any of the specific Milankovitch Cycles.
4.Tectonic Motion– Cannot be the primary cause because it occurs over the course of millions of years. However, it is very important in terms of determining where the continents sit, whether that makes an ice age possible and other features of the global climate that have impacts regionally or on other forcings (such as volcanoes) including elevation changes or sea floor spreading. Furthermore, tectonic motion determines what rocks are available to the atmosphere as it moves CO2 from the atmosphere into long-term storage in the form of carbonic acid that weathers rock to create calcium carbonate and silicon dioxide.
B. Rubric For Learning Outcome 2
Short Answer Question 23 (4 points total)
One point awarded for correctly stating each of the following items:
1. An anomaly map or difference plot shows the difference between data on two maps.
2. This particular map shows a difference between the control/baseline and treatment run of a global climate model (GCM) difference plot.
3. Scientists use them to see differences or compare scenarios.
4. Scientists use them to see any of the following: 1. How specific factors impact Earth’s climate; 2. Areas globally that show large differences (or places of extreme change); 3. Compare against results from other modeling groups or models; And, 4. Other answers that appropriately relate to seeing differences.
Essay Question 28 (15 points total)
Part A
1. Five points awarded for stating hindcasting is when global climate models (GCMs) are run against past climates to check their accuracy against historical periods for which real-world data exists.
2. Two and a half points for stating hindcasting is when global climate models (GCMs) are run against current events to see if the model accurately simulates real-world data being collected.
3. One point for any partial ideas of either of these.
4. Zero points for anything else.
Part B
Five points for correctly stating that the rise in temperature post 1970 in the instrumental temperature record does not just correlate with rising GHG emissions but can not be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) without including human emissions of them.
Students were also given partial credit as follows;
1. Three points for saying only when we run both together does the model simulate the instrumental record correctly showing that the two correlate.
2. Two points for partial answers that only mention natural or human GHG emissions as forcings but not both.
3. Zero points for anything else.
Part C
Students can receive five points for any numbers of answers including stating that global climate models (GCMs) are accurate because they use physical equations to simulate processes that occur in the atmosphere and ocean, are numerical models using three-dimensional grids of the planet, are one technology scientists use to better understand the climate and are calibrated and tested in processes like hindcasting. Students lost points or received partial credit when they incorrectly stated global climate models (GCMs) are used on weather prediction and received zero points for writing non-relevant answers.
E3. Rubric For Learning Outcome 3
Short Answer Question 25
Four points for correctly stating that deductive reasoning is top-down logic where you start with the theory and then provide evidence to support it. In 1896, Svante Arrhenius first calculatedby hand the effect of increasing concentrations of gases (a doubling in the atmosphere) might mean 5°C to 6°C global average temperature increase. His paper posits a theory that has only had evidence provided for it in the years since its completion.
Students also received two points if they correctly stated differences between deductive and inductive reasoning but failed to correctly understand what Svante Arrhenius’s work represented for the field of climate science.
Essay Question 29
Part A
Students received up to 7.5 points for naming any correct characteristic such as science is falsifiable, replicable, relies on observation, relies on data, involves peer review, includes scepticism, does not have absolute facts, has multiple trials, includes independent collaboration or follows any aspect of the scientific method (correctly described). Partial credit was given for any partial answers or ideas that were not fully explained.