WRD/PTC-39/Doc. 5.5, p. 2
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION FOR PARTICIPANTS ONLYAND
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION
FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones
Fortieth session
Colombo, Sri Lanka
25 February to 1 March 2013 / FOR PARTICIPANTS ONLY
WRD/PTC-40/Doc. 5.5
(08.II.2013)
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ENGLISH ONLY
REVIEW OF THE COORDINATED TECHNICAL PLAN AND CONSIDERATION OF
THE WORK PROGRAMME FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS
Research Component
(Submitted by the Secretariat)
SUMMARY AND PURPOSE OF DOCUMENTThis document provides the session with information on the recent activities of the Organization, which are of particular relevance to the research component of the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones.
ACTION PROPOSED
The Panel is invited to review the information to be presented by the representative of WWRP’s WGTMR at this session and make proposals and recommendations concerning future research activities as amendments and/or additions to the draft text attached to this document.
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References:
1. WMO Strategic Plan (2012-2015) WMO-No. 1069 and WMO Operating Plan (2012-2015)
2. Strategic Plan for the Implementation of WMO’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) (2009-2017) (WMO/TD No. 1505) (WWRP 2009-2)
Appendix: Draft text for inclusion in the report of the session
WRD/PTC-40/Doc. 5.5, APPENDIX, p. 3
DRAFT TEXT FOR INCLUSION IN THE DRAFT REPORT OF THE
FORTIETH SESSION OF THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL ON TROPICAL CYCLONES
5.5 Research
5.5.1 A training workshop for tropical cyclone forecasters in South East Asia was organized in 2012 by WMO’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) in collaboration with the Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) under the 2010 Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (Shanghai, 12-1 Jun 2012). Fifty-two junior forecasters from 5 NMHSs in Southeast Asia were trained on new tropical cyclone forecasting techniques developed during the said FDP. The workshop report (CD format) was published in 2012.
5.5.2 The Expert Team on Climate Impacts on Tropical Cyclones held a meeting in New Delhi on 17 February 2012 to discuss future activities of the working group especially on the possible issuance of an updated statement on the climate impacts on tropical cyclones.
5.5.3 The 2nd International Conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones & Climate Change was successfully held in New Delhi from 14-17 Feb 2012. The conference was attended by 268 tropical cyclone forecasters & researchers (of the total 47 were graduate students & 65 early career scientists) from 15 Members of WMO. The Conference Proceedings including a list of recommendations on future research directions will be printed in 2013.
5.5.4 Another successful event held in 2012 was the International Conference on Opportunities and Challenges in Monsoon Prediction in a Changing Climate (Pune, 21-25 Feb 2012) which was attended by 350 monsoon forecasters and researchers (150 graduate students & early career scientists) from 21 Members of WMO and which also included some tropical cyclone experts.
5.5.5 During the two conferences above, the experts discussed the scientific basis of the projected increase of high-impact weather events (tropical cyclones and monsoons) and the complexities inherent in combating their hazardous impacts. Discussions during the conference resulted to a number of recommendations which will be forwarded to the writing teams working on IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) due in 2014.
5.5.6 Late in the year, the " 2nd International Workshop on Unusual Behaviour of Tropical Cyclones" was held in Haikou, China from 5 to 9 November 2012. The Workshop was focused on improving the theoretical understanding and forecast capability of the rapid change phenomena in tropical cyclones and also stimulates future research work in this field. The workshop covered a range of topics (observations, prediction, research and field programs etc.) related to the unusual behavior of tropical cyclones.
5.5.7 Also organized during the year was the Second Monsoon Heavy Rainfall Workshop (Petaling Jaya, Malaysia, 10 to 12 December 2012). Recent research results on the observation, modelling and prediction of heavy rainfall in the monsoon region (including heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclone events) were presented and discussed during the workshop. It also provided training to heavy rainfall NMHS forecasters in the monsoon region. The oral session included invited lectures and selected contributed papers. A planning meeting for the proposed international field and modelling project, Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX), was also held during the said Workshop.
5.5.8 Steps are being taken to organize a meeting of the Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research tentatively in Macao, China from 26-27 October 2013. The working group will also hold in the same venue a meeting with another WWRP working group, the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research. Discussions during the joint meeting will focus on projects and activities of common interest to the two working groups.
5.5.9 Also underway are preparations for the 5th WMO/CAS International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-V) (tentative: Macao, China, 28-30 Oct 2013). The IWM series is a part of the WMO major quadrennial symposia and workshop series under the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). It provides a forum for monsoon researchers and forecasters to discuss recent advances and current issues covering all time scales (meso, synoptic, intraseasonal, climate) that are relevant to the forecast of high-impact weather in the world’s monsoon regions. The three previous workshops in the series were held in Bali (Feb 1997), New Delhi (Mar 20101), Hangzhou (Nov 2004) and Beijing (Oct 2008). One of the topics of the workshop will be on tropical cyclones and monsoons.
5.5.10 The 5th WWRP/WGTMR/MP Training Workshop on Monsoons will be held in conjunction with the IWM-V tentatively in Hong Kong, China on 1 November 2013. This one-day workshop on operational monsoon research and forecast issues is a means to transfer new science and technology to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in monsoon-affected regions.
5.5.11 Plans are to hold the eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VIII) in the Republic of Korea in November 2014. The IWTC is one of WMO’s major quadrennial workshop series organized by its World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP). The quadrennial workshop is a special and unique gathering of tropical cyclone researchers and warning specialists from all regions affected by tropical cyclones, including those from Members belonging to the WMO TCP regional bodies. The main objectives of these workshops are 1) to examine current knowledge, forecasting and research trends on tropical cyclones from an integrated global perspective and 2) to report on these aspects and to offer recommendations for future forecasting studies and research with special regard to the varying needs of different regions.
5.5.12 Now online within the Indian Meteorological Department website is a webpage which provides the Tropical Cyclone THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Ensemble Forecast whenever a tropical cyclone is within the area of responsibility of TC RSMC New Delhi. The webpage was developed in association with WMO’s North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cyclone_fdp/CycloneFDP.htm
5.5.13 WWRP is pleased to announce that the first World Weather Open Science Conference will be held in Montreal, Canada from 17 to 23 August 2014. It will highlight recent advances in weather science and in the science practice of weather prediction. The Conference will also consider areas where a predictive capability is emerging, including a range of aspects of the natural environment, to provide predictions of importance in a range of different socio-economic sectors.
5.5.14 In 2012, the 64th Session of the WMO Executive Council (Geneva, 25 June to 3 July) approved the establishment of two The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) legacy projects. The first one is the 5-year Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S) Joint Research Project (WWRP/THORPEX/WCRP) whose main goal is to improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale, and promote its uptake by operational centres and exploitation by the applications community. Special attention will be paid to the risk of extreme weather, including tropical cyclones, droughts, floods, heat waves and the waxing and waning of monsoon precipitation. The second project is the 10-year Polar Prediction Project (PPP) whose aim is to promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hourly to seasonal. The said project constitutes the hourly to seasonal research component of the WMO Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS).
More information about the two projects are available online at:
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/S2S_project_main_page.html
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/polar_prediction_research_project_main_page.html
5.5.15 Under development is a High-Impact Weather project which will serve as legacy to THORPEX emphasizing the improvement of high-impact weather predictions on the hours-to-weeks timescales with a stronger focus on shorter time and space scales. The project will profit from the international experience gained in THORPEX. This proposed project will have links with the Polar Prediction and Subseasonal to Seasonal Projects mentioned above.
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