Economics 141Page 3
Syllabus
University of CaliforniaDoug Steigerwald
Department of Economics
Econometrics in Practice: Quantitaive Solutions for Industry Partners
Economics 191DS
Course Goals:
To provide exposure to statistical problem solving with specific focus on questions arising from industry partners. Potential topics (and partners) include: computer security (the computer security group at UCSB, firms fighting internet fraud and Intel), finance (Goldman Sachs), and regional economic analysis (CERF, Economic Forecast Project).
Course Structure:
Meetings: MW 11:00 – 12:15 (North Hall 2013)
Course Begins: Monday, January 6
Course Concludes: Wednesday, March 12
Final Examination: none
My Office Hours:
Requirements:
Article/Chapter Presentations (40%): You will be asked to report on an article or chapter. Your report should state the main goals of the paper, summarize how the goals are achieved, offer a critique and propose extensions. You will present each report in an assigned 25 minute class slot.
Industry Topic Presentations (60%): You will be asked to take charge of an industryresearch question and turn in a written report of 5 pages, due one week after your presentation. You may take a question of interest to you or select one of the following:
- Calculate the tracking error for a financial asset
- Determine the effectiveness of a counterfeit abatement strategy.
In doing so, you will need to present the methodology background for any novel methods you use. You will present your paper in an assigned class slot of 25 minutes. Your paper is due one week after your presentation.
Readings:
Principal readings come from
N. Silver, The Signal and the Noise, Penguin, 2012.
Other texts that may provide useful readings
S. McGrayne, The Theory that Would not Die, Yale, 2011.
J. Wooldridge, Introductory Econometrics, South-Western, 2009.
Access to articles: Most articles are available through library. To access readings through this link when away from campus, refer to configure to configure your computer.
Course Schedule
1How to Elicit the Truth to Elicit the Truth - Transparencies.pdf
2How to Detect aHot Hand to Detect a Hot Hand - Transparencies.pdf
3How Many are There? Many are There - Transparencies.pdf
4How Many to Poll? Many to Poll - Transparencies.pdf
5Investment in Education in Education - Transparencies.pdf
6FraudDetection Detection - Transparencies.pdf
7 (W January 29)
Presentation: Jens Montin
Silver 10 “The Poker Bubble”
Presentation:
2010 “How Allies Used Math Against German Tanks” Wired.com
Presentation: Donavyn Olvera
2012 “Benford's Law” DataGenetics .com.
Presentation:
2009 “The Coin Flip: A Fundamentally Unfair Proposition?” Coding the Wheel.com.
8 PredictionHow to Elicit Effort 2-3
Wooldridge 6.4 “Prediction and Residual Analysis”
9 (W February 5)
Presentation: Dane Tinley
Silver 1 “A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction”
Presentation:
Silver 2 “Are You Smarter Than a Television Pundit?”
Presentation: Jason Gittler
Silver 3 “All I Care About is W’s and L’s”
Presentation: Hiromi Meguro
Silver 4 “For Years You’ve Been Telling Us that Rain is Green”
10Forecasting 2-10
Wooldridge 18.5 “Forecasting”
11 (W February 12)
Presentation: Michael Holubowski
Silver 5 “Desperately Seeking Signal”
Presentation:
Silver 6 “How to Drown in Three Feet of Water”
Presentation: Scott Detweiler
Silver 7 “Role Models”
Presentation: Iwunze Ugo
Silver 8 “Less and Less and Less Wrong”
12 (W February 19)
Presentation: Evan Berg
Silver 9 “Rage Against the Machines”
Presentation: Daniel Wise
Silver 11 “If You Can’t Beat ‘Em…”
Presentation: Alexandr Lenk
Silver 12 “A Climate of Healthy Skepticism”
Presentation:
Silver 13 “What You Don’t Know Can Hurt You”
13How to Calculatea Rate of Return 2-24
14 (W February 26)
Jason Gittler
Dane Tinley – Sell, Sell, Sell!
15 (M March 3)
Michael Holubowski – AB Testing in Web Design
Jens Montin – Ethical Economics
16 (W March 5)
Alexandr Lenk – Equilibrium Selection in Games
Iwunze Ugo – Drug Use Patterns
Daniel Wise – Monetizing Mobile Games
17 (M March 10)
Scott Detweiler – Tracking Error
Hiromi Meguro – Voter Turnout Model
18 (W March 12)
Evan Berg – Optimal File Storage of Online Music
Donavyn Olvera – Strategic Behavior and Pokemon