Display: Getty Images # 55314888
Caption: A French-designed Scorpene patrol submarine
Title: BRAZIL/MIL – The French Connection
Teaser
Franco-Brazilian military cooperation is on the rise.
Summary
The latest development in Franco-Brazilian military cooperation – French assistance with the development of naval nuclear propulsion – could signify an expanding defense relationship. Brazilian Defense Minister Nelson Jobim announced that a formal deal on that assistance, along with four French-designed Scorpene patrol submarines, could be inked before the end of the year.
Anaylsis
Brazil will receive bilateral French assistance in the development of naval nuclear propulsion for its long-standing indigenous submarine design program the country's Defense Minister Nelson Jobim announced Sept. 23. Appearing to solidify a request made of Paris by Brasilia in January of this year, Jobim suggested that a formal deal could be inked before the end of the year. Such an arrangement would be emblematic of potentially far broader Franco-Brazilian military cooperation.
Brasilia's indigenous nuclear submarine program has languished for decades – funded, but without the injection of funds nor the urgent strategic need necessary to push the program to fruition. French assistance could be just the thing to help the Brazilians overcome the immense technical hurdles – though nothing is going to happen overnight. But while such an undertaking comes with significant <http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/brazil_brasilias_muddled_naval_priorities<opportunity cost,> it could begin to lay the groundwork for a meaningful nuclear submarine capability towards the end of the next decade.
Though often cited in terms of defending Brazil's oil and gas deposits far offshore (and Brazil does indeed also have some minor possessions even further afield), a nuclear attack submarine fleet is about the capability to project naval power significantly farther. Brazil's five conventionally powered diesel-electric patrol submarines (all based or heavily reliant on the German Type 209 design) offer significant coastal defense capability. This capability will only be further expanded by the acquisition of U.S. Mark 48 torpedoes already underway and the coming addition of four new French-designed Scorpene subs to the fleet (as part of the above agreement). Taken as a whole, conventional patrol submarine technology, coupled with developments in <http://www.stratfor.com/russia_new_development_naval_propulsion<air-independent propulsion,> are more than sufficient for Brazil to make the waters off its long coast inhospitable to any unwanted intrusion.
The search for naval nuclear propulsion is about something more. It is about strategic power projection -- well beyond the ambitions of robust coastal defense -- beyond the southern cone and along South America's southern Pacific shores or into the Caribbean. This capability is at least a decade out for Brasilia, and the country continues to suffer from the lack of an imminent threat that forces urgency on the defense and industrial establishments.
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However, the continued focus should be noted – especially as Brasilia moves into a new era of defense funding and modernization. The nuclear submarine program is clearly emblematic of a Brazil that is looking beyond its own territorial waters and offshore resources to projecting force and influence further afield – and is willing to seek outside assistance to expand its own domestic military-industrial capacity.
And this is where France comes in. In 2000, the French sold the Brazilians the Clemenceau class aircraft carrier Foch (now Sao Paolo). Earlier this year, the two countries inked a US$1.2 billion deal for the indigenous production of some 50 Super Cougar helicopters in Brazil, and at least a dozen Mirage 2000 fighter bombers are in the process of being transferred to the Brazilian air force. Taken as a whole, the French are moving deliberately to establish a close relationship with Brazil in terms of military technology and strategic weapon systems.
Paris is also thought to be heavily favored (no doubt in part due to its cooperation in technology-transfer) in Brasilia's search for a new late fourth generation fighter jet. The Dassault Rafale has been <http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/europes_fighter_frustrations<struggling in the international market,> but could make a compelling fit for Brazil. The Rafale could likely additionally be deployed on the Sao Paolo to replace the navy's aging 1950s era A-4 Skyhawks (of which as few as six may actually be airworthy). But just as important, the sale – essential for Paris, which is struggling to find an export customer – could further solidify French cooperation in other fields.
Ultimately, the Brazilian military's modernization and reform is still taking shape and picking up steam. But with a new National Defense Plan taking shape and cooperation with France has been promising so far. At this point, it appears likely to continue from both perspectives. And with that cooperation appears to be coming a lot more than simply the weapons and capability necessary for Brazil to defend its own territorial integrity.
Related Analyses:
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20080917_brazil_implications_russias_presence_south_america