D.F. McCaffrey Page 4 of 22
DANIEL F. MCCAFFREY
EDUCATION
Ph.D., Statistics, 1991, North Carolina State University
B.A., Mathematics and Economics, 1986, Mount Saint Mary's College
professional experience
2007-Present, PNC Chair in Policy Analysis, RAND, Pittsburgh, PA
2002‒2008, Head, RAND Corporation Statistics Group, RAND Corporation, Pittsburgh, PA
2002‒Present, Adjunct Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
2002‒Present, Senior Statistician, RAND Corporation, Pittsburgh, PA
1996‒2002, Statistician, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA
1991‒1996, Associate Statistician, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA
1989‒1991, Research Assistant to Dr. A. Ronald Gallant, Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
1987‒1989, Research Assistant, Non-clinical Statistics, Glaxo Inc., Research Triangle Park, NC
professional honors
Statistician of the Year, Pittsburgh Chapter of the American Statistical Association, 2008
RAND Education Mentor Award, 2006, 2007 and 2008
Reviewer of the year, Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 2007
Fellow of the American Statistical Association, 2006
Association for Health Services Research (AHSR), Article-of-the-Year Award
(Co-Author), 2000
RAND Corporation President’s Award 1997 and 2007
North Carolina State University:
Gertrude Cox Fellowship, 1986‒1987 academic year
NC State Alumni Grant, 1986‒1987 academic year
Mu Sigma Rho, National Statistics Honor Society
Professional service
Chair, Methods Program, SREE 2011 Fall Conference.
Senior Editor, Statistics, Politics, and Policy, 2010–Present
Associate Editor, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 1994‒2000
Associate Editor, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Applications and Case Studies, 2000‒Present
Senior Editor, Statistics, Politics, and Policy, 2009-Present
US Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, Scientific Review Panels, 2003-2008
President, Pittsburgh Chapter of the American Statistical Association, 2007-08
Member, Scientific and Public Affairs Advisory Committee, the American Statistical Association, 2010-present
Proposal Reviewer, National Science Foundation, 2006-present
Proposal Reviewer, Carnegie Corporation, 2006-present
Member, RAND HSPC Membership Committee, 2000-2002
Reviewer: AERA; American Journal of Evaluation; Biometrics; Biostatistics; CPRE; Center for Substance Abuse Treatment Services; Drug and Alcohol Dependence; Economics of Education Review; Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis; Educational Measurement: Issues & Practice; IEEE Information Theory Society Transactions; Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics; Journal of Econometrics; Journal of Education and Behavioral Statistics; Journal of Educational Measurement; Journal of Drug Issues; Journal of Official Statistics; Journal of Policy Analysis and Management; Journal on Research in Mathematics Education; Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B; National Research Council, Committee on National Statistics; Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development; Psychological Methods; Public Opinion Quarterly; Statistica Sinica; Statistics in Medicine; US Dept. of Education
professional organizations
American Statistical Association, since 1986
Institute of Mathematical Statistics, since 1992
American Education Research Association, since 2005
Grants and COntracts
September 2000‒September 2001, National Science Foundation
Title: “Improved Inference for Multistage Cluster Samples Using Bias-Reduced Linearization Standard Error Estimates,” $73,805
April 2003‒March 2006, National Institute on Drug Abuse
Title: “Causal Effects of Community-Based Treatments for Youths,” $675,000
October 2004-September 2006, RAND
Title: “Cross-Classified Models”, $160,000
October 2004-September 2007, US Department of Education
Title: “Enhanced Value-Added Models for Estimating Teacher Effects”, $500,000
January 2005‒March 2007, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Kauffman Foundation, the National Education Association, and the Pennsylvania State Education Association
Title: “Causal Effects of Value-Added Assessment on Educators and Student Outcomes,” $540,000
February 2005-December 2006, US Department of Education (sub-contract)
Title: “Validation of Gains on High-Stakes Assessment”, $85,000
September 2005-December 2006, US Department of Education (sub-contract)
Title: “Design and Feasibility of VAM of Measuring Teacher Performance,” $73,000
June 2006-June 2011, US Department of Education (sub-contract)
Title: “National Center for Performance Incentives”, $2,500,000
October 2006-September 2007, RAND
Title: “Hurricane Displacement and Student Outcomes”, $350,000
November 2008-October 2012, The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (sub-contract)
Title: “Measuring Teacher Quality”, $1,300,000
October 2008-Septmber 2011, The William T. Grant Foundation and Spencer Foundation (sub-contract)
Title: “Toward an Understanding of Classroom Context- A Validation Study,” $77,000
January 2009-June 2011, Fund for Public Schools
Title: “NYC Performance Bonus Program,” $500,000
March 2009-March 2012, National Institute on Drug Abuse
Title: “Causal Effects of Community-Based Treatments for Youths (Competing renewal),” $1,000,229
July 2009-December 2011, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
Title: “Measures of Effective Teaching: College Ready Research Team for the Value Added Measurement” $2,720,000
March 2011-August 2011, Georgia Department of Education
Title: “Power Elements within the CLASS Keys Teacher Evaluation System”, $36,000
Publications
Peer-Reviewed RAND Corporation Publications
A Big Apple for Educators: New York City’s Experiment with Schoolwide Performance Bonuses, MG-1114-FPS, RAND Corporation (2011). Marsh, J.A., Springer, M.G., McCaffrey, D. F., Yuan, K., Epstein, S., Koppich, J., Kalra, N., DiMartino, C., Peng, A.
Value-Added Assessment in Practice: Lessons from the Pennsylvania Value-Added Assessment System Pilot Project, TR-506-CC, RAND Corporation, (2007), McCaffrey, D.F., Hamilton, L.
Merit Pay for Florida Teachers: Design and Implementation Issues, WR-508-FEA, RAND Corporation, (2007), Buddin, R., McCaffrey, D.F., Nataraj Kirby, S., Xia, N.
Student Displacement in Louisiana After the Hurricanes of 2005: Experiences of Public Schools and Their Students, TR-430, RAND Corporation, (2006), Pane, J.F., McCaffrey, D.F., Tharp-Taylor, S., Asmus, G. J., Stokes, B.R.
The Relative Effectiveness of 10 Adolescent Substance Abuse Treatment Programs in the United States, TR-346, RAND Corporation, (2006), Morral, A., McCaffrey, D.F., Ridgeway, G., Mukherji, A., Beighley, C.
Evaluating Value-Added Models for Teacher Accountability, MG-158, RAND Corporation, (2003), McCaffrey, D.F., Lockwood, J.R., Koretz, D.M., Hamilton, L.S.
Charter School Operations and Performance: Evidence from California, MR-1700-EDU, RAND Corporation, (2003), Zimmer, R., Buddin, R., Chau, D., Daley, G., Gill, B., Guarino, C., Hamilton, L., Krop, C., McCaffrey, D.F., Sandler, M., Brewer, D.
Teaching Practices and Student Achievement: Report of First-Year Findings from the “Mosaic” Study of Systemic Initiatives in Mathematics and Science, MR-1233-EDU, RAND Corporation, (2000), Klein, S.P., Hamilton, L., McCaffrey, D.F., Stecher, B.M., Robyn, A.E., Burroughs, D.
Groundwater Recharge with Reclaimed Water: Adverse Birth Outcomes in Los Angeles County, 1982‒1993, MR-1077-WRDSC, RAND Corporation, (1999), Sloss, E.M., Geschwind, S.A., McCaffrey D.F., Ritz, B.R.
HCSUS Baseline Methods Technical Report: Weighting, Imputation, and Variance Estimation, MR-1060-AHCPR, RAND Corporation, (1999), Duan, N., McCaffrey, D.F., Frankel, M.R., St. Clair, P.A., Beckman, R., Keesey, J.W., Chien, S., Goldman, D.P., Smith, S.M., Bozzette, S.A., Berry, S.H., Brown, J.A., Cohn, S.E., Perlman, J.F., Shapiro, M.F., Morton, S.C.
The Cost & Services Utilization Study (HCSUS) Measures of Health-Related Quality of Life, DRU-1897-AHCPR, RAND Corporation, (1998), Hays, R.D., Spritzer, K.L., McCaffrey, D.F., Cleary, P., Collins, R., Sherbourne, C., Wu, A., Bozzette, S., Shapiro, M., Cunningham, W., Eggan, F., Fleishman, J.
Discovery Management, Further Analysis of the Civil Justice Reform Act Evaluation Data, MR-941-ICJ, RAND Corporation, (1998), Kakalik, J., Hensler, D., McCaffrey, D.F., Oshiro, M., Pace, N.M., Vaiana, M.E.
Review and Evaluation of the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Block Grant Allotment Formula, MR-533-HHS/DPRC, RAND Corporation, (1998), Burnam, M.A., Reuter, P., Adams, J.L., Palmer, A.R., Model, K.E., Rolph, J.E., Heilbrunn, J.Z., Marshall, G.N., McCaffrey, D.F., Wenzel, S.L., Kessler, R.C.
Findings from an Evaluation of the Parent Institute for Quality Education Parent Involvement Program, MR-870-WF/PIQE, RAND Corporation, (1998), Zellman, G., Stecher, M.M., Klein, S.P., McCaffrey, D.F., Gutierrez, S., Madison, R., Quigley, D., Suarez, L.
Just, Speedy, and Inexpensive? An Evaluation of Judicial Case Management Under the Civil Justice Reform Act, MR-800-ICJ, RAND Corporation, (1997), Kakalik, J.S., Dunworth, R., Hill, L.A., McCaffrey, D.F., Oshiro, M., Pace, N.M., Vaiana, M.E.
An Evaluation of Judicial Case Management Under the Civil Justice Reform Act, MR-802-ICJ, RAND Corporation, (1997), Kakalik, J.S., Dunworth, T., Hill, L., McCaffrey, D.F., Oshiro, M., Pace, N.M, Vaiana, M.E.
An Evaluation of Mediation and Early Neutral Evaluation Under the Civil Justice Reform Act, MR-803-ICJ, RAND Corporation, (1997), Kakalik, J.S., Dunworth, T., Hill, L., McCaffrey, D.F., Oshiro, M., Pace, N.M., Vaiana, M.E.
Implementation of the Civil Justice Reform Act in Pilot and Comparison Districts, MR-801-ICJ, RAND Corporation, (1996), Kakalik, J.S., Dunworth, T., Hill, L., McCaffrey, D.F., Oshiro, M., Pace, N.M., Vaiana, M.E.
Groundwater Recharge with Reclaimed Water, An Epidemiologic Assessment in Los Angeles County, 1987‒1991, MR-679-WRDSC, RAND Corporation, (1996), Sloss, E.M., Geshwind, S.A., McCaffrey, D.F., Ritz, B.R.
Interim Report: The Reliability of Vermont Portfolio Scores in the 1992‒93 School Year, RP-260, RAND Corporation, (1994), Koretz, D.M., Klein, S.P., McCaffrey, D.F., Stecher, B.M.
Prevalence of Alcohol and Drug Use in California’s Household Population, 1988‒1991: Analysis of the California Subsample from the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse, DRU-713/1-CDADP/DPRC, RAND Corporation, (1994), Ebener, P.A., McCaffrey, D.F., Saner, H.L.
Can Portfolios Assess Student Performance and Influence Instruction? The 1991‒92 Vermont Experience, RP-259, RAND Corporation, (1994), Koretz, D.M., Stecher, B.M., Klein, S.P., McCaffrey, D.F., Deibert, E.
Improving Data and Analysis to Support National Substance Abuse Policy, DRU-592-ONDCP, RAND Corporation, (1993), Ebener, P.A., Cauklins, J.P., Geschwind, S.A., McCaffrey, D.F., Saner, H.L.
Evaluation of the Champus Reform Initiative: Vol. 4, Patterns of Medical, Surgical, and Obstetric Care, DRR-361-HA, RAND Corporation, (1993), Kravitz, R., Zwanziger, J., Polich, S.M., Blake, D.J., McCaffrey, D.F., Hosek, S.D.
Interactions Among Gift-Aid Programs in Indiana, R-4218-LE, RAND Corporation, (1992), Klein, S.P., Carroll, S.J., Hawes-Dawson, J., McCaffrey, D.F.
Published Articles
“Subgroups Analysis when Treatment and Moderators are Time-Varying,” Prevention Science Journal, forthcoming. Almirall, D., McCaffrey, D.F., Ramchand, R., and Murphy, S.
“Simultaneous One-sided Tests with Application to Education Evaluation Systems,” Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, forthcoming. Han, B., Dalal, S., and McCaffrey, D.F.
“Missing Data in Value-Added Modeling of Teacher Effects”, Annals of Applied Statistics, 5(2A), 773-797, 2011. McCaffrey D.F., and Lockwood, J.R.
“Analysis of Rolling Group Therapy Data Using Conditionally Autoregressive Priors,” Annals of Applied Statistics, 5(2A), 605-627, 2011. Paddock, S.M., Hunter, S.B., Watkins, K.E., McCaffrey. D.F.
“Smoothing Across Time in Repeated Cross-Sectional Data,” Statistics in Medicine, 30(5), 584–594 2011. Lockwood, J.R., McCaffrey, D.F., Setodji, C. M., Elliott, M.N.
“Associations between Abstinence in Adolescence and Economic and Educational Outcomes Seven Years Later among High-Risk Youth,” Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 113(2-3), 118-124, 2011. Griffin, B.A., Ramchand, R., Edelen, M.O., McCaffrey, D.F., Morral, A.R.
“Marijuana Use and High School Dropout: The Influence of Unobservables,” Health Economics, 19(11), 1281–1299, 2010. McCaffrey, D.F., Pacula, R. Han, B. Ellickson, P.
“Centering and Reference Groups for Estimates of Fixed Effects: Modifications to felsdvreg,” The Stata Journal, 10(1), 82–103, 2010. Mihaly, K., McCaffrey, D.F., Lockwood, J.R, Sass, T.R.
“Findings from an Experiment to Evaluate the Efficacy of Cognitive Tutor Geometry,” Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness, 3(3), 254–281, 2010. Pane, J., McCaffrey, D.F., Steele, J., Ikemoto, G., Slaughter, M.
“A Model for Teacher Effects from Longitudinal Data without Assuming Vertical Scaling,” Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 35 (3), 253–279, 2010. Mariano L.T., McCaffrey D.F., and Lockwood, J.R.
“Long Term Effect of Community Based Treatment: Evidence from the Adolescent Outcomes Project Drug and Alcohol Dependence,” Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 7(1), 62-68, 2010. Edelen, M.O., Slaughter, M.E., McCaffrey, D.F., Becker, K., and Morral, A.R.
“Exploring Student-Teacher Interactions in Longitudinal Achievement Data,” Education Finance and Policy, 4(4), 439‒467, 2009. Lockwood, J.R., and McCaffrey, D.F.
“The Intertemporal Variability of Teacher Effect Estimates,” Education Finance and Policy, 4(4), 572‒606, 2009. McCaffrey, D.F., Sass, T.R., Lockwood, J.R., and Mihaly, K.
“Improving Disparity Estimates for Rare Racial/Ethnic Groups with Trend Estimation and Kalman Filtering: An Application to the National Health Interview Survey,” Health Services Research, 44(5p1), 1622‒1639, 2009. Elliott, M.N., McCaffrey, D.F., Finch, B., Klein, D. Orr, N., Beckett, M.K., and Lurie, N.
“Recanting of Lifetime Inhalant Use: How Big a Problem and What to Make of It,” Addiction, 104(8), 1373‒1381, 2009. Martino, S., McCaffrey, D.F., Klein, D., and Ellickson, P.
“Long-term Effects of Drug Prevention on Risky Sexual Behavior among Young Adults,” Journal of Adolescent Health, 45(2), 111‒117, 2009. Ellickson, P., McCaffrey D.F., and Klein D.
“Using the Census Bureau’s Surname List to Improve Estimates of Race/Ethnicity and Associated Disparities,” Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology, 9(2), 69‒83, 2009. Elliott, M.N., Morrison, P.A., Fremont, A., McCaffrey, D.F., Pantoja, P., and Lurie, N.
“Multiple Trajectories of Peer and Parental Influence and their Association with the Development of Adolescent Heavy Drinking,” Addictive Behaviors, 34(8), 693‒700, 2009. Martino, S., Ellickson, P., and McCaffrey, D.F.
“Creating a Developmentally Sensitive Measure of Adolescent Alcohol Misuse: An Application of Item Response Theory,” Substance Use & Misuse, 44(6), 835‒847, 2009. Edelen, M.O., McCaffrey, D.F., Ellickson, P., Tucker, J., and Klein, D.
“Use of Expert Ratings as Sampling Strata for a More Cost-Effective Probability Sample of a Rare Population,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 73(1), 56‒73, 2009. Elliott, M.N., McCaffrey, D.F., Perlman, J., Marshall, G.N., and Hambarasoomians, K.
“A Cautionary Case Study of Approaches to the Treatment of Missing Data,”
Statistical Methods & Applications, 17(3), 351‒372, 2008. Paul, C., Mason, W.M., McCaffrey, D.F., Fox, S.A.
“A Prospective Investigation of Suicide Ideation, Attempts, and use of Mental Health Service Among Adolescents in Substance Abuse Treatment,” Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, 22(4), 524-532, 2008. Ramchand, R., Griffin, B.A., Harris, K.M., McCaffrey, D.F., and Morral, A.R.
“Measurement of Teen Dating Violence Attitudes,” Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2008, Edelen, M.O., McCaffrey, D.F., Marshall, G.N., Jaycox, L.H. Online at:
http://jiv.sagepub.com/cgi/rapidpdf/0886260508322187v1
“Effects of Student Displacement in Louisiana During the First Academic Year After the Hurricanes of 2005,” Journal of Education for Students Placed at Risk, 13(2), 168‒211, 2008. Pane, J., McCaffrey, D.F., Kalra, N, Zhou, A.J.
“An Application of Principal Stratification to Control for Institutionalization at Follow-Up in Studies of Substance Abuse Treatment Programs,” Annals of Applied Statistics, 2(3), 1034‒1055, 2008. Griffin, B.A, McCaffrey, D.F., Morral, A.R.
“Power of Tests for a Dichotomous Independent Variable Measured with Error,” Health Services Research, 43(3), 1085‒1101, 2008. McCaffrey, D.F., Elliott M. Online at:
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1475-6773.2007.00810.x