ETP’sAdvancedTransportation TechnologiesConference:
Planning for the 2020s

October 9, 2015

Revised for discussion atthe Eastside Transportation Partnership Meeting,July 10, 2015

Please provide comments – especially suggesting sponsors and speakers – to
Steve Marshall and John Niles at .

1)Assumptions for the Conferenceregarding the late 2020s environment, to limit the conference scope in order to allow sufficient time for advanced technology issues:

  • Population growth according to projections by PSRC.
  • Land use plans and forecasts of PSRC are assumed.
  • New cars achieve 55 miles per gallon and are approaching zero emissions. (Federal and state policy)
  • The complete, seamless regional HOV managed-lane expressway network has been implemented.
  • Sound Transit light rail and commuter railis implemented per the PSRC Destination 2040.
  • Cycling and walking continue to be supported with continuation of present public policies.
  • Water ferries operating according to PSRC Destination 2040.
  • Road use chargeswith off-peak discounts and high-occupancy discounts will be in effect on expressways and state highways.
  • Electronic substitution of travel is widespread, causing just minor shifts in demand patterns, but not significantly changing travel demand levels. Well researched, not worth discussing further.

2)On the other hand, there are some unknowns about the late 2020sbecause of uncertain technology influencesand other factors.The following performance measureswill be discussed at the Conference and emphasizeuncertainty about the future and the need for flexibility in planning:

  • The level of overall travel demand in the 2020s despite State VMT reduction targets.
  • Travel mode shares, including potential new modes.
  • Levels and timing of traffic congestion on arterials and highways.
  • Vehicle volume throughput per lane.
  • Origin-destination patterns of person-trips.
  • Mix of commute trip distances.
  • Mix of vehicle automation levels on public roads of all types.
  • Degree and type of wireless vehicle connectivity.
  • Target Zero state and local programsdegree of success in reducing vehicle crashes.
  • Public and private bus routes and service levels.
  • Fraction of road traffic that is freight
  • Use of robotic aviation for package delivery.

3)Finally, technology to be useful in society is applied in applications that implement entrepreneurial hopes, business strategies and policy intentions.Changes in road system performance depend upon what technology applications are implemented in response to particular government policies. In other words, what we can realistically expect in the previous list is a function of what we try to do to influence the outcome through technology applications or otherwise. The following list of examples of potential applications is meant to focus the range of future possibilities for incorporation in local and regional plans. CATES believes it is important to pro-actively discuss policy intentionsvis a vis technology applications (what follows) as context for understanding ranges of performance.

  • Increased private, small vehicle mobility services such as Uber, Lyft, and Car2Go
  • Flexible, instant ride-sharing
  • Employer-sponsored ride sharing
  • More private transit, such as the Microsoft Connector
  • High tech mobility hubs – SOV traveler aggregation points for alternatives
  • Support for private vehicles in first and last mile travel, or circulator transit
  • Promotion of higher vehicle occupancy levels
  • Driverless, low-speed, public transit authorized on the roads (horizontal elevators)
  • Parking demand management and automated parking
  • Higher or lower vehicle speed limits
  • Increase safety at intersections with automated right-of-way enforcement.
  • Incentives for anti-collision applications in private vehicles
  • Other mandatory private vehicle capabilities related to automated driver assistance.

Conference goals in five areas:

1)Identify and discussemerging transportation technologies and examples of potential applications of the technologies.

2)Discuss public policy intentions to accelerate or suppress particular technology applications. By tearing down barriers, or erecting them, and a variety of other actions, local governments are in a position to influence the speed and quality of the deployment of a new generation of vehicles, alternative transit service offerings, and many other transportation applications of technology.

3)Discuss the potential unintended consequences of the new technologies.

4)Establish research-based expectations for the direction of positive change in congestion reduction, mode shares, and system efficiency, as can be influenced by local government activities, which in turn can include influencing action by higher levels of government and the private sector.

5)Develop recommendations for state and local government action, including for local and regional planning activities. Strong pre-emptive initiatives from non-planning sources such as councils, legislatures, and even citizen initiatives sometimes drive planning staffs to respond.

  1. Audience: Local, county, regional and State government elected officials, policymakers and staff with an interest in transportation; private sector transportation and technology companies; general public. $25 attendance fee.
  2. List of technology applications and service innovations to be touched upon as assumed contributions to or background for the listed examples above.
  3. Increasingly autonomous vehicles eventually leading to driverless vehicles starting with low-speed dedicated transit (horizontal elevators) and parked vehicle low-speed repositioning (hailing a car that you will then drive).
  4. Cars that detect and avoid colliding with pedestrians, cyclists, other motor vehicles, and roadside objects of all kinds
  5. Smart roads, aka intelligent transportation systems, meaning traveler information and computerized flow control via signs and signaling
  6. Wireless vehicle connectivityto other vehicles and to infrastructure for a variety of purposes
  7. Cleaner vehicle propulsion – ongoing reduction of health impacts from air pollutions, and ongoing reduction in GHG
  8. Parking pricing and management
  9. Expanding user-pay road pricing per PSRC Transportation 4040
  10. Evolution of Internet-dispatched, on-demand ride services such as Uber and Lyft
  11. Evolution of multi-mode aggregator apps (e.g., RideScout) that display all mobility options for an intended journey (in real-time or in advance)
  12. Employer-sponsored ride-sharing for their employees; corridor funded rideshare recognition and reward for carrying passengers, including parking benefits.
  13. Technologies to speed up buses, provide better information to riders, and generally improve quality of service.

Please provide comments – especially suggesting sponsors and speakers – to
Steve Marshall and John Niles at .

ETP’sAdvanced Transportation Technologies Conference Page 1