Africa News – 14th January 2009
Ghana's cliff-hanger elections and another successful transition start Africa's year on a positive note. It left those who had been predicting mayhem puzzling why Ghana failed to follow Kenya's descent last year into chaos after a similarly close-run and disputed election.
The answers, Ghanaians say, are in their political traditions, the credibility of the electoral commission and the local media's vigilance. Yet some senior figures in the main parties still favoured fighting out the election on the streets.
Politicians across Africa are studying Ghana's vote closely ahead of more than 20 elections due in 2009. Doubtless, the defeat of a previously popular governing party reflects the effects of last year's rocketing food and fuel prices and concern about jobs.
These will matter hugely in Southern Africa's six elections this year, particularly in South Africa, where the governing ANC faces a challenge from a party of ANC dissidents. And for the first time, the economic and political chaos in Zimbabwe will be a major issue for voters in the region. That might bolster moves by the ruling ZANU-PF hierarchy finally to edge out President Mugabe.
Further north in Algeria, Congo-Brazzaville, Tunisia, Equatorial Guinea, Niger and Sudan, elections this year are unlikely to be harbingers of change: for those incumbent regimes, the vote will be a masquerade behind which the real politics continues.
SOUTHERN AFRICA
A new landscape unfolds
Changes in South African politics will reverberate across the region in a year of economic tumult
South Africa: With general elections coming up and the world recession pressing down, South Africa faces a new political scene. Firstly, who will lead the governing African National Congress to the polls? Secondly, how well will the new, breakaway Congress of the People do? COPE's future depends on whether ANC President Jacob Zuma survives to lead the campaign for the national presidency and parliamentary dominance.
Malawi: The three main parties are gearing up for presidential and parliamentary elections in May.
Namibia: President Hifikepunye Pohamba has failed to impose his authority on the governing South West African People's Organisation since he took over from ex-President Sam Nujoma as party chief at the end of 2007.
Botswana: President Ian Khama will carry on with his top-down leadership style and disinterest in parliamentary procedures. Opposition parties and some in the governing Botswana Democratic Party think he constrains the democratic debate of government policies.
Madagascar: President Marc Ravalomanana bestrides the political scene, with his Tiako-i-Madagasikara party dominating Parliament and no elections due this year.
Angola: Nobody doubts that President José Eduardo dos Santos will be reelected in 2009. The National Assembly is to vote by April for a new constitution under which it, not the people, will choose the head of state.
Mozambique: Elections will dominate this year. Firstly, there is the fallout from the 19 November municipal elections: the opposition Resistência Nacional de Moçambiquecondemned them as fraudulent and its leader Afonso Dhlakama has threatened to lead a civil disobedience campaign in protest.
Swaziland: There is no prospect in the short term of King Mswati III reversing Swaziland's economic decline or trying to resolve the country's increasingly bitter politics.
Seychelles: Tourism-dependent Seychelles faces a difficult year: earnings are forecast to drop, worsening a tough economic prognosis of ballooning public debt and falling state revenue.
Lesotho: The row over the legality of a coalition between the dominant Lesotho Congress for Democracy and the smaller National Independence Party is set to continue in 2009.
Mauritius: This year, Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam and his Labour Party will prepare for the 2010 elections with a mixture of political brokering and economic strategy to prove that Mauritius, more than most countries in the region, can weather the global credit crunch.
Zambia: Caution characterises the political style of new President Rupiah Banda. After winning last October's presidential election, he has made just five changes to the late President Levy Mwanawasa's last cabinet.
NORTH AFRICA
All of North Africa's leaders will have something to celebrate in 2009, even if the majority of their populations won't
North Africa's leaders are among the longest-serving in the world and the most immune to democratic impulses. In comparison, Africa south of the Sahara with its multiparty elections and freer press is a hubbub of political pluralism and accountability. It is clear that North Africa's oppressive political systems and gerontocracy are holding back economic development and social change, yet that will not stop its ageing leaders from celebrating their decades-long grips on power.
Libya: Huge investment is promised in housing, transport, power and education to mark the 40th anniversary of Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi's 1 September 1969 coup.
Morocco: Mohammed VI will celebrate his first decade as Al Amir al Mouminin ('Commander of the Faithful') on 23 July.
Mauritania: The ousting of civilian President Sidi Mohammed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi in a dawn putsch last August has prompted African, European and American sanctions against the new junta.
Egypt: President Mubarak will be working to ensure that his term ends with his son, Gamal, at the helm.
NORTH AFRICA
Election results foretold
The main issues in North Africa's two presidential elections this year will be the margin of the incumbents' victories and the effectiveness of their tactics against their Islamist opponents.
Algeria: The financial position is much better in Algeria, which amassed over US$130 billion in foreign reserves during the oil boom. Despite free-falling prices for crude oil exports, officials say there is plenty to finance President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's social and physical infrastructure development plans, including the 'grands projets' that will provide the 'Boutef' legacy.
Tunisia: Like its western neighbour, Tunisia is a prime target for Islamist fighters. President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali (born September 1936) has used the AQIM threat to rationalise his extremely hard line on the Islamist opposition, a policy that has also stifled non-Islamist opposition and media activity.
EAST AFRICA
Courts and killing
Regional leaders face a new impetus from Africa and beyond to bring political murderers to account
Sudan: A tumultuous political year will begin with the International Criminal Court's expected issuing of an arrest warrant for President Omer Hassan Ahmed el Beshir.
Ethiopia: Enmity with Eritrea dominates Ethiopia's foreign relations. No international effort can solve their border dispute, with Eritrea claiming a legal victory and Ethiopia insisting on the need for further dialogue.
Eritrea: Eritrea remains determined to force Ethiopia to accept the 'virtual' demarcation of the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission and will continue to underpin Ethiopian opposition movements and to oppose Ethiopia's aims in Somalia.
Djibouti: Djibouti is very poor and unemployment is very high. Its Afar people resent President Ismail Omar Guelleh's regime.
Somalia: A 'government of national unity' will be set up, with a parliament doubled in size to 550 members. This follows the resignation of President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed and the Ethiopian withdrawal.
Somaliland: Somaliland will hold a presidential election at the beginning of April. In the 2003 poll, President Dahir Riyale beat Ahmed Silanyo by just 0.01% of the vote and a similar result is expected this time.
Kenya: The governing coalition that emerged from last year's bloody election aftermath will continue its uneasy rule. Prime Minister Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement held a conclave of its cabinet ministers on 5 January and of its National Executive Council two days later.
Uganda: President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni will continue the process he started last year - preparing to run again in 2011.
Tanzania: President Jakaya Kikwete will reshuffle his cabinet before his re-election campaign in 2010.
Chad: The prospects for President Idriss Déby Itno's survival this year will depend on three main factors: his considerable cunning and grip on his own military forces; some security support from an increasingly reluctant France; and the weakening of Sudan's Islamist regime in Khartoum by a combination of external sanctions and internal opposition.
Comoros: The African Union's enthusiasm for intervening in Comoros last March to suppress the secessionist regime led by Mohammed Bacar is a rare example of its determined intervention. Its ultimate beneficiary was Comoros' Federal President Ahmed Abdallah Mohamed Sambi whose Islamist sympathies have earned him the title of 'the Ayotollah'.
CENTRAL AFRICA
Old wounds, new crises
Falling commodity prices and failing politicians will make a dangerous combination this year
Congo-Kinshasa: No ceasefire was arranged at the latest negotiations in December between the Kinshasa government and General Laurent Nkunda's rebel Congrés National pour la Défense du Peuple. A fresh attempt was due on 7 January in Nairobi, when it was hoped Nkunda's people might be more cooperative.
Congo-Brazzaville: The all-powerful President Denis Sassou-Nguesso will notch up an easy victory in the presidential poll scheduled for July. The opposition to him and his Parti Congolais du Travail is fragmented and largely neutralised by deals that have brought long-exiled opponents such as Bernard Kolélas, Jacques-Joachim Yhombi-Opango and Victor Tamba home to a comfortable welcome, in return for accepting the legitimacy of the regime.
Rwanda: The governing Front Patriotique Rwandais won the September elections and a period of calm should follow; President Paul Kagame seems sure of re-election in 2010.
Burundi: January will provide the first test for the agreement, reached in December, between the government and Agathon Rwasa's rebel Parti pour la Libération du Peuple Hutu-Forces Nationales de Libération.
Central African Republic: Crucial and unexpected breakthroughs were produced by the Dialogue Politique Inclusif in Bangui in December.
Gabon: The Libreville talk is all about an economy after oil and a political system after President El Hadj Omar Bongo Ondimba. Bongo is managing his fin de régime clumsily; journalists acquire broken limbs, civil society activists are intimidated by the security services, corruption allegations are swept under the carpet.
Cameroon: Speculation about President Paul Biya's political staying power will increase in 2009, just two years before the next presidential election. Given that he has already been president for 26 years, the speculation seems misplaced.
Equatorial Guinea: Expect double celebrations in the camp of President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo: Obiang will win a presidential election and mark 30 years in power in August.
WEST AFRICA
Before and after the voting
Ghana's close-fought but well-run election will set a new standard for competitive politics in Africa
Nigeria: The Supreme Court's validation of President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua's contentious 2007 election victory will do little to stabilise Nigeria's fractious politics. The battle lines might be sharper still in 2009 as economic prospects deteriorate in line with the free-falling world oil price and as the pool of state largesse recedes.
Côte d'Ivoire: December came and went without a date set for elections. There will be none until the identification and registration of electors is complete and money is available for the polls. The best guesses (and European and French military plans) say there will be no poll before October or November.
Gambia: Expect more turbulence in Gambia, despite the present impression of tranquillity. The erratic, dictatorial regime of President Yahya Jammeh is midway between elections, which generates a political lull, and the opposition is feeble.
Togo: In 2008, Togo officially ceased to be a pariah state and the main donors resumed their aid. 2009 is likely to expose the political fudges that permitted that opening.
Benin: President Yayi Boni has succeeded in managing Benin's volatile National Assembly but will find it harder to manage the economy.
Senegal: Senegal's politics will be rough and could turn violent around the regional, municipal and rural elections in the first quarter of 2009. Poverty is spreading and people have demonstrated all over the country.
Mali: The Tuareg rebellion in the northern desert is spreading, adding to the usual threat from crime and illicit trading of all kinds. The rising, led by Ibrahim Ag Bahanga, now extends into the west, near the frontier with Mauritania and a few hundred kilometres from its capital, Nouakchott.
Niger: President Mamadou Tandja's second term in office runs out in December. The constitution says it should be his last but his supporters have launched Operation Tazartché ('change' or 'prolongation' in Hausa).
Guinea: Junior army officers, led by Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, quickly consolidated their power over Guinea's crumbling state machinery after the demise of President Lansana Conté on 22 December.
Burkina Faso: President Blaise Compaoré, whose government receives more EU aid than any other country in the region, faces a presidential election in 2010, which constitutionally should be his last term in power.
Liberia: The announcement of a US$1 billion iron ore investment in Liberia by China will give President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf's government a fillip in 2009 amid local rivalries and increasing reports of internal corruption.
Saõ Tomé e Príncipe: Politicians know that 2009 offers vital time to position themselves ahead of the 2010 elections, but they - especially Prime Minister Joaquim Rafael Branco - also hope it will yield some advancement of the oil exploration that was supposed to start with the award of licences in 2005.
Sierra Leone: Well liked across the political spectrum, President Ernest Bai Koroma has failed in his first year in power to deliver the promised investment in power generation, job creation or improvement of the country's appalling social development indicators.
Cape Verde: Investment in tourism and increasing visitor numbers drive the economy, while agricultural underdevelopment helps drive the majority of locals abroad.
GuineaBissau: November's elections were supposed to herald a new dawn, but a foiled attack on 23 November on President João Bernardo 'Nino' Vieira left two dead. Vieira promptly recruited a 400-man militia to protect him.