Anticipating Future: Major Global Trends 2015 – 2035
Contents
Executive Summary 3
Anticipating Future: Major Global Trends 2015 – 2035 4
Introduction 4
Energy Outlook 4
Environment Change 7
Demographic trends 8
Food and Water Security 9
Cyber security and access to technologies 11
Transnational Crimes and Trans-border Movements 12
Regional Economic Connectivity 13
Global Conflict Environment 16
Conclusion 17
Executive Summary
The world we see today is turbulent. Short of a world war, today’s global landscape is facing immense and increasingly complex challenges. Mapping the future is difficult partly due to the gaps in the existing understandings of world events and also due to potential game changers or wild cards that may suddenly emerge. Therefore, futuristic studies remain uncertain subject but they needed by both state and corporate entities which require global research and analysis.
This report attempts to explain how the world may look like twenty years from now where. Nine different issues are selected that will be critical in the development of world in the 2035. These are global conflict environment, energy outlook, environmental change, food and water security, demographic trends, regional economic connectivity and trans-national crimes including border movements. Each section describes current trends, potential challenges in the areas mentioned above and their impact twenty years from now. Official data and credible reports have been used to extrapolate the scenarios for 2035.
The only constant factor in the 21st century is change. Geopolitical shifts and technological advancements will be some of the prominent factors shaping the forthcoming years. Some megatrends will redefine how the coming generations will be affected. Therefore more demands from less resources, in the context of the world’s depleting natural resources and increasing demand for those resources through economic and population growth. Growth in traditional and non-traditional security challenges lead states to make policies at political, economic and military levels.
All the indicators and trends discussed are directional that can supplement future policy planning possibilities, which could be feasible and desirable for coping with the challenges. All these global constitute the composite challenge for seeking the most accurate predictions.
Anticipating Future: Major Global Trends 2015 – 2035
Introduction
The world in 2035 will be shaped by a complex set of factors, and will be driven by multiple dynamics. The outcome of the many forces and drivers is highly uncertain over at this time. But one thing is certain: majority of those who will be inhabiting the world in 2035, have been born and living in different parts of our world. The future can be imagined based on the prevailing trends, and data available to us, including studies undertaken around the world in this regard. At present, the world is experiencing intensified strain on resources due to fast pace of growth of emerging economies. These patterns of economic growth and social and economic development, dynamics of political interests and interactions within societies as well as between states, emergence and spread of new technologies, and diffusion of power, will shape the world in the next twenty years.
Energy Outlook
The global energy politics will focus on the demand of the energy in developing nations of Asia and the supply of energy by Middle Eastern countries. British Petroleum (BP) projects that by 2035 global energy consumption will increase by 41% from current levels and most of the growth (around 90%) will be in non-OECD and majority of it in India and China. Moreover, increases in power generation capacities will amount to around 60% of the growth.[1]
Meanwhile, global energy demand will progressively grow by nearly one-third by 2035 at the rate of 1% per annum. China will grow at 2% per annum, India at 3% per annum, and Middle East at 2% per annum, thus making up for nearly 60% of the total increase. The, energy demand in highly industrialized OECD countries will increase at 0.1-0.2pc per annum.
The estimated global energy mix in 2035 will comprise of coal accounting for 24.5%, oil 27.1%, gas 23.9, Nuclear 6.6%, Hydro 2.8%, Bioenergy 10.9%, and other renewables 4.1%.[2] British Petroleum also estimates that in 2035, oil with 28% will remain the dominant fuel in the world, coals will make up 27%, natural gas will comprise 26%, and renewable energy sources will contribute 7% to the energy mix.[3]
In 2035, it is projected that fossil fuels will meet around 60% of the global demands. Oil is estimated to be the slowest growing fossil fuels and its daily production will rise to 109 MB/d only by 2035. Supply of natural gas will increase to 500 Bcf/d by 2035 and the industry will remain the primary consumer i.e. around 4 %, of it. The renewable sources of energy will, however, grow at 7-8% per annum, but will only meet nearly 4% of the total demand. There will be a surge in usage of unconventional gas (shale gas backed by fracking technology) in the United States. Moreover, many countries are already looking to emulate this success story. China has the highest potential, while Australia, Europe and Latin America will be looking towards diversifying their sources of energy.[4]
Production of unconventional shale gas will reshape global energy landscape. The US which currently meets nearly 20% of its energy demand by importing oil, will become self-sufficient by a rising production of oil and shale gas by 2035. US is gradually moving towards phasing out coal and oil, replacing it with Shale gas, thus incrementally reducing coal and oil from its energy mix. By 2035, US will be fulfilling 101% of its energy needs through indigenous sources, up from a low mark of 69% in 2005, thus becoming energy self-sufficient in next two decades.[5]
In the meantime, China is going to overtake European Union as the world’s largest geographic region of energy consumption. Europe will continue to be largest global importer of natural gas, and China will become the largest importer of oil in the world. On the other hand, the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia will meet more than a third of global fuel demands. Russia will remain the largest net exporter of hydrocarbons, with its net exports meeting approximately 4.2% of global energy demand. Moreover, by 2035, nearly 90% of Middle Eastern oil and gas will be exported to Asian economies.[6]
Nuclear energy is considered as a viable and important source of energy and would be integral part to the world over the next fifty years.[7] As of May 2014, 30 countries worldwide are operating 435 nuclear reactors for electricity generation and 72 new nuclear plants are under construction in 15 countries.[8] Nuclear power plants provided 12.3% of the world's electricity production in 2012. In total, 13 countries relied on nuclear energy to supply at least one-quarter of their total electricity.[9]
The outlook for nuclear energy demand and supply associated with the investment estimates differs only marginally from 2013. Global primary energy demand will rise by around one-third in the period to 2035 driven higher mainly by China, India, ASEAN and the Middle East. Oil and coal consumption will grow more slowly than the overall rise in energy demand (12% and 16%) while natural gas rise by 44%, nuclear rise by 74%, and modern renewable energy sources will rise by 134%.[10]
Despite the relatively high costs, recent accidents and growing public opposition in some regions, nuclear power is back on the agenda of many countries, primarily for three reasons: it has predictable long-term generation costs, it is not exposed to the volatile fossil fuels markets, and it can enhance energy security and bring along climate-change mitigation benefits. Nuclear’s economic competitiveness depends on local conditions including available alternatives, market structures and government policy.
Environment Change
The environmental challenges are of an increasingly complex and of global nature. Their impact will be visible over next few decades. However, natural environment has been stressed by unprecedented population growth and human activity from the onset of industrial revolution. The ever increasing demands for more natural resources, the machine revolution in agriculture, production of hazardous waste as by-product of industrialization, a globalizing and rapidly growing economy, and fast-paced urbanization around the world, have led to unsustainable environmental degradation. In turn, these changes go on to reduce access to, and fertility of arable land, affect quality of clean air, and biodiversity loss. Steady climate change will reduce land available for habitation, because a few geographic regions will undergo desertification, and some areas might be flooded permanently due to rising sea levels. Similarly, weather patterns across regions will be transformed, with regular occurrence of extreme weather conditions such as heat waves, droughts, storms and floods.[11] Fertilizers are used to add nutrients to the soil to promote soil fertility and increase plant growth. However, these fertilizers in return have negatively impacted on the quality of soil and environment. The biggest issue facing the use of chemical fertilizers is groundwater contamination. Nitrogen fertilizers break down into nitrates and travel easily through the soil. Because it is water-soluble and can remain in groundwater for decades, the addition of more nitrogen over the years has an accumulative negative effect.[12]
One popular fertilizer, urea, produces ammonia emanation, contributes to acid rain, groundwater contamination and ozone depletion due to release of nitrous oxide by denitrification process. With its increased use and projections of future use, this problem may increase several fold in the coming decades. Groundwater contamination has been linked to gastric cancer, goiter, birth malformations, and hypertension; testicular cancer and stomach cancer. [13]
The environmental impact of pesticides consists of the effects of pesticides on non-target species. Over 98% of sprayed insecticides and 95% of herbicides reach a destination other than their target species, because they are sprayed or spread across entire agricultural fields.[14] Runoff can carry pesticides into aquatic environments while wind can carry them to other fields, grazing areas, human settlements and undeveloped areas, potentially affecting other species. Other problems emerge from poor production, transport and storage practices.[15] Over time, repeated application increases pest resistance, while its effects on other species can facilitate the pest's resurgence.[16]
Due to reliance of fossil fuels for energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will continue to increase rapidly. It is estimated that by 2030, world CO2 emissions will be more than twice the 1990s levels.[17] BP estimates that in the next two decades, by 2035, CO2 emissions will increase by 29% largely due to increasing demand for energy from developing countries, mostly in Asia.[18] Across the European Union, CO2 emissions are estimated to increase by 18 % by 2030, as compared to 1990 level. Similarly, in the US, the increase is projected to be around 50%. On the other hand, developing countries, which added 30% emissions in 1990, will produce more than half of global CO2 in 2030s.[19]
Demographic trends
Human population growth is perhaps the most significant cause of the complex problems the world faces today. A “natural population increase” occurs when the birth rate is higher than the death rate. But national population growth rate depends on the natural increase and on migration of people. World population growth, however, is determined solely by the by the natural increase. Over last two centuries, the world has experienced unprecedented increased in global population growth and this trend is likely to continue for foreseeable future. World population will increase, for next two decades, at annual rate of nearly 1% due to advances in medicines, improved quality of food and sanitation conditions.[20] In 2035, according to United Nations projections, there will be more than 8.7 billion human beings inhabiting our planet.[21] Other estimates (on the medium variant projection) put it at near 8.6 billion.[22] 80% of global population increased is projected to take place in Asia and Africa.[23] China’s population will reach its high point around 2030 and India will replace China as the world’s most populous country by 2020.[24]
Presently, half of global population is very young, with median age around 28 years. But overall global population is ageing, mostly in the developed nations. By 2035 large part of the developing world will also age. Some developing countries and regions, that currently have majority age population, will witness growth of a young population.[25] In 2035, the age groups will range from very young people (median age of 25) to the very old people, who lived longer than any period in human history before. The countries (mostly in the West) with majority as aged population will have to face tough challenges in maintaining high living standard. Today’s developed world in 2030s will be faced with the challenge of slower GDP growth or even stagnation. Thus, to continue the economic activity demand for skilled and unskilled labor, to new wave of migration across continents may occur.
Food and Water Security
The growing nexus among population and changing demographic patterns, rising incomes spurred by economic growth means that urbanization will increase in next two decades and will put strain on food and water resources. The demand for food and water will increase by more than 35 % by 2030 owing to significant increase in world population.[26] On supply side, food production has increased significantly over last hundred years by adoption of new agriculture techniques, advances in science and technology leading to increasing yields due to new and innovative irrigation systems, fertilizer usage and expansion of agriculture to new lands.[27] In coming decades vertical farming–in high rise buildings–can meet new demands. However, changing weather patterns due to climate change are also aggravating food and water security. Governments and private sector will have to work towards avoiding scarcities of essential resources by effective management of critical resources. By 2035, genetic and scientific modification of food will become a necessity, for human consumption. New agricultural techniques such as better rain-fed agriculture and irrigation management, genetic engineering for higher-yielding crops, and aquaculture would be widely practiced across the globe to increase global productivity.
Water is also becoming increasingly scarce. At present, nearly 2 billion people are living in areas facing water stress or scarcity.[28] If current trends continue, 90% of freshwater supplies will disappear by 2030.[29] A study found that in 2030, annual global water requirement will reach 6,900 billion cubic meters i.e. 40 % above current water supplies.[30] Nearly 40% of world population inhabits areas near or adjacent to river basins and over 200 of these basins are spread over two or more than two countries, creating inter-dependencies and mutual vulnerabilities from changes in demand and supply of water. Studies project that by 2035, 3.6 billion people (40% of the estimated world population) will inhabit the areas with water stress or scarcities, as growth in world population will lead more countries and region to become water scarce.[31]