The Housing target

How is it determined?

  • The Office for National Statistics (ONS) makes aprojectionof the likely local population change for the borough due to natural change (births, deaths), net internal migration within the UK and finally net international migration. The Council is expected to amend this projection for known local or legislative factors to turn it into a more reliable forecast of expected change.
  • The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) then apply a factor to turn the forecasted population change into a forecasted housing need.
  • A third party firm (GL Hearn) then make further adjustments to the DCLG figure to generate a figure for the Objectively Assessed Need (OAN) as required by the NPPF.
  • The Council can reduce the OAN for local constraints e.g. Green Belt, infrastructure deficit etc.

What are the demographic projections?

  • The 2012 ONS data (the latest available) projects the borough population between 2012 and 2031 to shrink by 2000 people, due to natural change and net internal migration.
  • It is the projected net international migration of 23,000 that drives the entire projected 21,000 increase in the population of the borough to 2031, based upon the abnormally high increase in the number of foreign students attending the University of Surrey between 2008 and 2011.
  • The ONS projects net international migration using a different methodology from that used to project natural change and net internal migration, and openly states that this figure is less accurate.
  • The February 2015 DCLG household projection for the borough is for a household need of just over 500 dwellings per annum (dpa) to 2031,before any constraints are applied.It is also before correcting the distortion, which increases the calculated need, of having a higher than average number of young people in the borough (students) for a limited period whilst they complete their studies and before they move on.

The employment adjustment

  • The GL Hearn December 2014 SHMA adds 163 dpa to the Guildford housing target over and above that proposed to meet demographic change in order to support economic growth, based on a forecast by Experian, the methodology of which is not disclosed. No allowance is made in this figure for commuting which is a fact of modern life. Currently 50% of the jobs within the borough are filled by people who live outside the borough, some in areas of more expensive housing e.g. Waverley.

Student Accommodation

  • The GL Hearn December 2014 West Surrey SHMA (the latest SHMA) adds 25 dpa to the Guildford housing target over and above that proposed to meet demographic change in order to house students. The Guildford Residents Association (GRA) argues that this is double counting and that the numbers are already accounted for in the net international migration figures.

Affordability issues.

  • The GL Hearn December 2014 West Surrey SHMA adds 79dpa to the housing target over and above that required to meet demographic change, to improve affordability. The GRA believes that the impact of this on Guildford house prices will be close to zero, as the market is dominated by London house prices. GRA supports allocating a higher proportion of the housing target to affordable housing for local residents.

Summary

  • The Council should insist on a more appropriate forecast of likely local population change be prepared and press its consultants (GL Hearn) to reduce the ONS projection for net international migration as the government is committed to significantly reducing the scale of such migration compared to the period to 2011, on which the ONS projection is based.
  • The Council must consider the impact of commuting in assessing employment housing need.
  • The University must do more to be seen as a “good citizen” of our borough and must accommodate more of its students on its current campus to free up affordable housing for local people.
  • Finally, we trust that, as required by the NPPF and as promised by the Leader of the Council, local constraints (Green Belt, infrastructure deficit etc.) will be fully applied in the next draft of the Local Plan to reduce the OAN to give an achievable housing target. During the past 20 years the target has been just over 300dpa.

June 2015