The Adelaide labour market and the impact of the Holden closedown
27 March 2015
Presenter: Ivan Neville
Department of Employment
2 – Labour market overview
/ Greater Adelaide / South Australia /Unemployment rate / 7.2% / 6.9%*
Employment in Manufacturing / 57,800 / 74,200
10 year change / -20% / -19%
Total employment / 623,900 / 794,600*
10 year change / 11%
(61,800) / 9%*
(63,900)
Monthly internet vacancies / 5,700 / 7,100*
Annual change / 3% / 0%
* Seasonally adjusted data
Notes
Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed – Electronic Delivery, February 2015 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.001), three-month averages of original data; ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, February 2015 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.003), four-quarter averages of original data; Department of Employment, Vacancy Report, February 2015. The Greater Adelaide vacancies are three-month averages of original data, while the State figures are seasonally adjusted.
This table presents some key labour market data for Greater Adelaide and South Australia. It is worth noting that employment in Manufacturing has already fallen by about 20 per cent over the last 10 years.
3 – Regional disparity
Notes
Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed – Electronic Delivery, February 2015 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.001). Data for Adelaide are three-month averages of original data. Data for ‘Rest of SA’ are 12-month averages of original data, in order to smooth out some of the volatility inherent in regional estimates.
At 8.6 per cent, North Adelaide had the highest rate of unemployment in Greater Adelaide.
4 – Long-term unemployment is an increasing challenge
Notes
Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed – Electronic Delivery, February 2015 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.001), 12-month averages of original data (South Australia)
A person is said to be long-term unemployed if they are unemployed for a period of 52 weeks or longer. In South Australia, one out of four unemployed people were long-term unemployed.
Long-term unemployment has doubled in South Australia since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in September 2008, rising to 14,800 in February 2015. More than a third (2,600) of this increase was accounted for by youth (15-24 year olds).
5 – Many auto workers have successfully moved to a variety of jobs
Between 2006 and 2011, many people who worked in Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing successfully moved to a wide range of new jobs across a number of industries and occupations:
Transport and Manufacturing
· Truck and Bus Drivers
· Food Manufacturing
Trades
· Construction Labourers
· Chefs, Butchers and Bakers
· Glaziers, Plasterers and Tilers
· Painters and Carpet Layers
Services
· Shop Managers
· Sales Assistants and Salespersons
· Aged and Disabled Carers
· Prison Officers and Security Guards
· Defence Force
· Emergency Service Workers and Police Officers
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2006 & 2011
6 – Retrenched workers are likely to be faced with:
Retrenched workers are likely to be faced with:
· Lower wages
· Fewer working hours
· Working at a different or lower skill level
· Different workforce composition
· Working in a smaller organisation
7 – Targeted training is vital
Notes
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
This chart shows that a positive relationship exists between higher levels of educational attainment and better labour market outcomes. In South Australia, 25-34 year olds were less likely to be unemployed if they had completed year 12 schooling or had post-school qualifications (certificate level III or IV and above).
8 – Some people take a long time to find a job
Notes
Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed – Electronic Delivery, February 2015 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.001), 12-month averages of original data
This chart shows that older job seekers are more likely to be unemployed for longer periods of time than their younger counterparts. In February 2015, the average duration of unemployment for 25-44 year olds (46 weeks) was considerably lower than for people aged 65 and over (79 weeks).
9 – Many job seekers don’t get an interview
Notes
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, All regions surveyed in the 12 months to December 2014
For vacancies advertised online or in a newspaper, employers received an average of 18 applicants, 14 of whom were not interviewed.
10 – Why don’t people get an interview?
Notes
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, All regions surveyed in the 12 months to December 2014
The most common reasons employers gave as to why they didn’t interview applicants were that they lacked relevant experience, had insufficient qualifications or training, or submitted a poorly written or presented application.
11 – Retrenched workers need to emphasise what they have
Notes
Retrenched workers need to emphasise their:
· Experience
· Qualifications and training
· Proven track record
· Job specific skills e.g. lean manufacturing
12 – But they also need to demonstrate these:
Notes
Retrenched workers also need to show potential employers:
• Flexibility/adaptability
• Enthusiasm/positive attitude
• Interpersonal/social skills
• Teamwork
• Customer services skills
• Reliability
13 – 1 in 3 jobs are not advertised
Notes
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences
About one third of vacancies are not formally advertised. Some employers prefer to use informal methods to recruit staff, such as word of mouth. For this reason, job seekers should use a broad range of search methods including approaching employers directly.
14 – Holden closure will have a negative impact…
Notes
In addition to the direct job losses associated with the Holden closure in Adelaide, there will likely be further job losses throughout the supply chain and others due to the associated fall in consumption.
15 - …but employment still forecast to grow
Notes
Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, February 2015 (cat. no. 6202.0), trend
Despite the job losses expected from the Holden closure, both the South Australian Treasury and Deloitte Access Economics are projecting modest employment growth over the years ahead. The SA Treasury projected employment growth to be 1 per cent for the 2016-17 and 2017-18 financial years.
16 – What does this mean for you?
Expect a steady inflow of new customers
· Holden and supply chain workers
o Many will be mature age
o Career change necessary
· Other industries/business will be impacted
· Young job seekers
o Will be competing with experienced Holden workers
o Graduate outcomes at lowest level on record
Inroads into long-term unemployment unlikely in the medium-term
· Competitive jobs market
· Long-term unemployment rising
But there will still be many job opportunities
· Overall employment growth forecast to improve
o Growth industries (e.g. Health Care and Social Assistance)
o Matching workers with vacancies an ongoing challenge
17 - End