DRAFT PROJECT PROPOSAL

Western Indian Ocean

Marine Applications Project (WIOMAP)

A regional contribution to GOOS and GCOS

A project of the World Meteorological Organization and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission.

Duration: funding requested for 5 years 2004-2008

Implementing Agencies: National Meteorological Services, Oceanographic Institutions of SADCC, IGAD Member Countries and Indian Ocean Commission Members.

Executing Agencies: World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO

Synopsis of Project Aims:The project will contribute to the sustainable development of marine resources to alleviate problems of food security, better long term planning and management to minimize the impacts of extreme weather events (such as storm surges from tropical cyclones, flood and drought), as well as the monitoring of long term changes of the marine environment, including accelerated sea level rise. This will be achieved through improved climate and marine predictions, based on enhancement of coastal and open ocean observing systems. It will also focus on capacity building of national institutions to enable them to take advantage of modern technology in ocean monitoring and new developments in ocean modeling. WIOMAP will ensure that ocean observations in support of GOOS and GCOS are sustained and utilized in weather, climate and ocean modeling activities, coordinated through one or more Specialized Application Centres located in the Western Indian Ocean region.

A.Context

A.1 Introduction

The Eastern and Southern African region comprises many islands, members of the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC) – Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion (France), Seychelles – and coastal and landlocked countries, Member States of SADC and IGAD. Most of them are developing countries where the main concern is food and housing security. The Indian Ocean, in general, and the Western Indian Ocean, in particular, exerts a profound influence on weather and climate of these countries. The WIO contains enormous potential for marine resources, which have yet to be fully exploited in a sustainable manner. Among these are fisheries, ocean energy, mineral resources and coastal tourism. As the population in the region increases and the shortage of land for cultivation purposes becomes more acute, there is no doubt that the resort to marine resources for food supply in the region will gradually become inevitable. The island states and coastal countries have been provided with opportunities and additional responsibilities with the adoption of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) which, in defining the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), has given them the right and obligation to protect and manage their marine resources within at least 200 miles of the coast.

Ocean circulation and coastal processes in the Western Indian Ocean are unique. In its northern part, there is an annual reversal of wind direction and ocean current. The Agulhas current off the South East Coast of South Africa is an important feature of the ocean circulation in the southern part. For this reason, the region is considered by marine scientists as a natural laboratory for research purposes. In spite of that, the Indian Ocean is the least studied ocean, mainly due to lack of data.

The tropical region of the WIO lies in the belt of tropical cyclones, which derive their energy from the ocean. This is among the most devastating weather systems, which can cause enormous loss of life and widespread damage to property, crippling the economy of a country for years. The flooding in Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe, due to the passage of cyclones Connie, Eline, Gloria and Hudah, from January to April 2000, causing damage worth million of US dollars to property and more than one thousand deaths in Mozambique, is a vivid illustration of the vulnerability of those countries to tropical cyclones. On average, about 10 formations occur annually in the region during the cyclone season, which extends from November to May.

The importance of the ocean in the life system of the earth cannot be over-emphasized. It influences almost every facet of the economic and social development of any country and its role in understanding weather and inter-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability is well known. By its very nature, ocean circulation does not recognize any geopolitical boundaries. Pollution, which originates from one state, often becomes the concern of others as the contaminants are carried throughout the region by the prevailing winds and currents.

The ability to understand and predict weather and climate, and enhance the effective exploration and exploitation of living and non-living marine resources, requires close collaboration and co-operation at regional and international level involving both meteorological and oceanographic Institutions/Organizations. Other areas which require a regional grouping of countries, include monitoring of marine pollution, predicting oil movement in case of an oil spill accident, understanding ocean and coastal processes for coastal protection and management and ensuring the safety of life and property at sea. This is particularly true in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) region, where most countries are developing states.

Under such circumstances, it would be almost impossible for a single country in the region to establish the necessary infrastructure and make available the required human resources to meet the growing demand for marine data and services from a wide spectrum of marine users in an efficient and most cost-effective fashion, even at the local level. Users demands are expected to become even more stringent in the years ahead. The most appropriate option is a regional approach. This is a global trend, which is being encouraged in the marine field through sharing and co-sponsoring sophisticated equipment and specialised support institutions regionally.

A.2 Regional Strategy

The value of regional cooperation in support of marine meteorological and oceanographic services has long been recognised. A first attempt was made in the Gulf region with the cooperative development of a Regional Marine Meteorology Project in the early 1980’s, involving all the seven countries of the region. Following the successful development of the South East Asian sub-regional project – the South East Asian Centre for Atmospheric and Marine Prediction (SEACAMP) – the Eleventh Session of the WMO Commission for Marine Meteorology (Lisbon, April 1993) recommended that studies be undertaken on the possibility of developing similar projects in other geographical regions, in particular East and West Africa.

A first WMO/IOC Implementation Planning Meeting for a Western Indian Ocean Marine Applications Project (WIOMAP) was held in Mauritius in May 1997. Participants were from Meteorological Services and Oceanographic Institutions from Comoros, France (La Réunion), Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Seychelles, South Africa and Tanzania. The main conclusions were: -

  • The need for a regional project as a regional contribution to the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), to enhance the provision of marine services for the benefit of a diversity of national, regional and global users
  • Development of a Specialised Marine Modelling and Product Preparation Centre, with various Sub-Regional Marine Centres for the preparation and distribution of marine products
  • A project outline of WIOMAP has received endorsement, besides WMO and IOC bodies, from the Directors’ meeting of Meteorological Services of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) (Mauritius, 5-8 May 1998) and the Meeting of Directors of Meteorological Services of the Indian Ocean Commission (Reunion, 28-29 May 1998). It was approved by the SADC Southern African Transport and Communications Commission (SATCC) Committee of Ministers (January 1999) as a subproject of the Meteorological Programme Project - No AAA 6.0.1, “Integration of weather and climate data, products and information in weather sensitive socio-economic activities.” During the Global Climate Observing Systems (GCOS) regional workshop for Eastern and Southern African countries (Kisumu, Kenya, 3-5 October 2001), a resolution which includes "that Western Indian Ocean observations be enhanced and become an integral part of an Indian Ocean observation strategy" was also approved. GCOS has been recognised by the conference of the parties to the UN Framework Convention of Climate Change (UNFCC) as the primary mechanism to coordinate and assist in national efforts to monitor global climate and climate change.

WIOMAP will constitute a regional contribution to the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) which was called for by Agenda 21 of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), to aid in the sustainable development of ocean and seas. GOOS has been designed so as to provide:

(i)accurate descriptions of the present state of the sea and its contents including living contaminants and living resources

(ii)continuous forecast of the future condition of the sea and its contents for as far ahead as possible

(iii)Long term data sets showing trends and changes, including the effect of the ocean on climate and climate change in coastal regions

Though GOOS is a global coordinated programme, it will be implemented more efficiently and effectively at sub-regional and regional levels. Major GOOS pilot projects are already underway in Europe (EuroGOOS) and in the North East Asian region (Near-GOOS). GOOS (Africa) is developing and Indian GOOS has just been established. At the recent GOOS-Africa meeting (Nairobi, 19-23 Nov 2001), three project packages were identified for development. These are assessment of the impacts of sea-level rise through improvement/reinforcement of the sea-level network; coupling mathematical, physical and biological models for the assessment of the coastal and marine environment in Africa; and remote sensing system.

A.3 Prior and On-going Assistance

Assistance in the field of marine meteorology and oceanography has been provided to some of the Southern and Eastern African countries under various UNDP/WMO projects and trust fund arrangements. WMO and IOC have provided some kind of assistance to many of them through their Voluntary Cooperation Programme (VCP) and Training, Education and Mutual Assistance (TEMA) programme. Programmes of bilateral assistance are also being implemented to strengthen the capabilities of a number of Meteorological Services and Oceanographic Institutions in the fields of meteorology and oceanography.

On a regional and sub-regional level, the following marine programmes with international, bilateral or multilateral assistance have been and are being implemented in related fields:

  • FINNIDA/SATCC/WMO Meteorological Project – Strengthening the National Meteorological Services in the SADC region so that they are able to meet the needs of all the economic sectors of the thirteen SADC countries
  • Indian Ocean Commission (IOC)/European Development Fund (EDF) – Enhancing the capabilities of the IOC countries in the cyclone belt of South-West Indian Ocean in detecting and monitoring cyclone activity in the region and promoting the implementation of an Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) programme in the region
  • IOC Global Sea-Level Observing System (GLOSS) in the Western Indian Ocean – Monitoring sea-level variation and rise. Thirteen GLOSS stations have been established as from 1986 within the framework of the former Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) programme of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
  • IOC Regional Co-operation in Scientific Information Exchange in the Western Indian Ocean (RECOSCIX) – assistance from the Belgian Government to establish a network of marine and aquatic institutes in the WIO region with a Regional Despatch Centre (RDC) in Mombassa as its central node
  • IOC/IODE Oceanographic Data and Information Network in Africa (ODINAFRCA) – aimed to encourage the use of standard methods for data collection and storage in the region and develop capacity for the preparation of data products for scientists and policy-makers. As a first step, most countries have established National Oceanographic Data Centres (NODC) and prepared metadata on their ocean data holdings
  • Various short training courses, seminars/workshops on marine and climate-related activities have also been organised by WMO, IOC and UNEP for the benefits of countries in the region.

A.4 Institutional Framework

Capacity building will be one of the major components of the project proposal. Lack of trained manpower has been identified as a serious constraint, which has precluded the full participation of countries in the exploration and exploitation of marine resources for the benefit of the population. The organisation of a post-graduate training course in the region in marine meteorology and physical oceanography has been recommended by both WMO and IOC subsidiary bodies. There are well-established training institutions offering various courses in different fields of meteorology in the region including capabilities to teach marine-related courses if strengthened.

The establishment of specialised regional modelling and product preparation centres has been proposed in various fora to optimize human and infrastructural resources. Several meteorological and oceanographic institutions exist in the region which have the capabilities to host such centres. They will be upgraded and provided with external assistance to reach an appropriate level to take up this responsibility.

In anticipation of the rapid development which will take place in the marine fields, various sub-regional organisations and offices in meteorology and oceanography have been set up by regional and international organizations to promote the implementation of regional programmes. These include: the WMO Sub-regional Office for Eastern and Southern Africa, Nairobi; the IOC Regional Office, which has been set up in February 2000 at Kenya Marine Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI), Mombassa; the IOC Regional Programme Office for the Indian Ocean (Perth); the Indian Ocean Commission Meteorological Programme and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) meteorology projects.

The Drought Monitoring Centres in Nairobi and Harare are actively involved in the preparation of seasonal outlooks for the benefit of the SADC and IGAD countries. Interaction between WIOMAP and these regional bodies will be promoted, and their requirements addressed.

  1. Project Justification

B.1 Economic factors underlying the need for WIOMAP.

Countries in the region are agriculture-dependent and goods transportation is mainly by sea routes. Most are very poor countries with a GDP of less than US$300. In Mauritius, for instance, the main exports include rain-fed sugar and textile. Economic growth slowed from 5.3% in 1998 to 2.5% in 1999 because of a record drought attributed to locally cool sea-surface temperature (La Nina), which reduced drastically the rainfall and thus sugar production. This led to a temporary increase in external debt from 8% to 30% of GDP.

The main exports of Madagascar are coffee, cotton, vanilla and prawns, all of which are climate-dependent. The GDP in 2001 declined due to drought in the south and tropical cyclone (TC) damage in the north. This is not the first time that severe weather has hampered economic growth. In 1994, three successive TC made landfall near Tamatave Harbour with 6 cm storm surges putting the country's main oil-refinery out of commission for most of the year. More recently both Tanzania and Kenya have endured repeated drought conditions in 1996 and 1998-2000 related to La Nina conditions and cool SSTs in the WIO. The droughts led to a collapse of subsistence crop production and food aid was needed. During the 1997 El Nino, SST warmed above 30C resulting in coral bleaching along the coast. Economic growth declined, particularly in the tourism sector, as widespread floods occurred. Mitigating actions by government agencies were insufficient to prevent loss of infrastructure, life and economic hardship estimated to exceed $ 1 billion. With underpinning knowledge generated through WIOMAP, confidence in the application of weather predictions will grow.

The climate of the littoral countries of the WIO depends to a large extent on the state of the WIO. Acute weather and climate forecasts are critical to enhance agricultural production, minimise loss of life and property, safeguard trade and exploit efficiently marine living and coastal resources.

B.2 Problems to be addressed by the project.

The Western Indian Ocean contains a variety of marine resources, which have not been fully exploited. However, for their efficient exploration, exploitation and sound management, it is essential to have a detailed knowledge of the ocean. Fish catch can be maximised by making use of information on sea surface and sub-surface temperature. Ocean energy (waves, tides, Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC)) cannot be assessed properly without data describing pertinent variables. Mineral resources can be exploited efficiently only through a thorough knowledge of bathymetry and local meteorological conditions which affect platform performance. Problems of coastal erosion and marine pollution monitoring cannot be solved without accurate and timely prediction of waves, storm surges and tidal conditions. Key scientific questions, which will be addressed by WIOMAP, include how weather conditions modulate marine resources and food and water supply in the participating countries and how best the structure and variability of surface fluxes and storm tracks can be monitored and modelled for predictive purposes.