November 20, 2000
ACTIONINFORMATIONREQUIRED
TO THE ADMINISTRATOR ADDRESSED:
SUBJECT:Pupil Projections for the Next Biennium
Enclosed is a printout that shows the agency’s projections of the district’s pupil counts for the coming biennium, corresponding to the 2001-2002 and 2002-2003 school years. Please review the projections carefully.
These projections have been submitted to the Legislative Budget Office and the legislature. Pursuant to current law, these counts may be used as the basis for Foundation School Program payments (Legislative Payment Estimate, LPE data on the 2001-2002 and 2002-2003 Summary of Finances). Although these forecasts will not impact actual entitlements and eventual state aid settle-up amounts for these years, they will drive your district's future cash flow if adopted by the legislature in the coming session.
For comparison purposes, the final pupil counts for 1999-00 and the District Planning Estimate (DPE) estimates of pupil counts for 2000-01 are also shown on the report. Space has been provided to the right for any changes you wish to make. Any changes made to the 2000-01DPE estimate will not affect the district’s current cash flow for the current school year but will be used to generate a revised estimate of the end-of-year settle-up amount.
Please be advised that any changes to the projections, particularly increases, will be fully analyzed. Since a reasonable growth rate has been used to generate the projections, agency staff may contact you and request documentation to substantiate any proposed increases.
Enter any changes manually in the spaces provided. Please make an entry in the space provided only if you are revising the estimate. If you are not modifying a count, leave the space beside it BLANK. Also include the date and the signature of the superintendent. Even if you are satisfied with all of the Agency projections and are not submitting any changes, you must return the (blank, unchanged) form to the Agency. Forms are due to the address below no later than December 18, 2000.
Texas Education Agency
School Finance and Fiscal Analysis Department, 6-120
ATTENTION: Pupil Count Forecasts
1701 N. Congress Ave.
Austin, TX 78701-1494
In the past, the agency has provided pupil projection tools to assist districts in creating their own attendance count forecasts. At this time, very similar tools are available from the Texas Association of School Business Officials (TASBO). To use this spreadsheet, you must have Excel 97 (or later) on your computer. The tools are available at no charge on the TASBO web site at downloads.htm. For districts that do not have Internet access or for questions about this service, please contact Tom Patton by email at or by telephone at (512) 462-1711, extension 219. Please note that use of the tools is entirely optional.
Your assistance in helping us provide the legislature with an accurate estimate of student counts for the next biennium is appreciated. If you have questions, please contact Gail Nelson in the School Finance and Fiscal Analysis Department at (512) 463-8994.
Sincerely,
Joe Wisnoski
Managing Director, School Finance
and Fiscal Analysis