Summary of increases in demand for local services in Cardiff

As a result of changing economic circumstances, as well as changing characteristics of the Cardiff population there have been a number of additional pressures placed demand for local services in Cardiff. A summary of some of these issues is givenin this report.

Headline Issues

Childrens’ Services

  • There have been significant increases in the number of referrals and care proceedings in Cardiff in recent years, with care proceedings numbers increasing almost 4 fold between 2009 and 2012.

Adult Services

  • An aging population is also leading to an increase in demand for adult services, particularly for those aged 85 and over who typically comprise the most complex cases.

Schools

  • There have been big increases in demand for nursery age places, where there is currently a city wide shortfall. There is also continued demand for Welsh medium education.

Housing and Benefit

  • There have been big increases in the number of customers accessing housing benefit, as well as an increase of 25% in the last 18 months of those requiring temporary accommodation.The reform of Welfare in the UK will also have an impact on the demand for services, and will affect over 40,000 people in the city.

Crime

  • There has been a noticeable rise in ‘opportunist’ thefts, including thefts from a person, theft from a public area, shoplifting and cycle theft. These crimes now account for around a third of total crimes in the city.

Children’s Services

  • There have been significant increases in the number of care proceedings in Cardiff in recent years, with numbers increasing almost 4 fold between 2009 and 2012.
  • There has also been a significant increase in referrals, using strategy discussions as a proxy indicator for number of child protection referrals suggests an almost 3 fold increase over 5 years[1].
  • Over the same period the total number of overall referrals accepted by Children’s Services more than doubled.

Children’s Services Workload Summary

Year end date / Care Proceedings[2] / Strategy Discussions / Total Referrals to Children’s Services / Required Core Assessments
31.03.12 / 79 / 1706 / 4730 / 1790
31.03.11 / 63 / 926 / 4525 / 901
31.03.10 / 56 / 972 / 3793 / 849
31.03.09 / 20 / 807 / 3241 / 723
31.03.08 / 599 / 2576

Source: Cardiff Council

Adult Services

  • The number of people aged 65+ who are supported to live at home has increased steadily over the last 4 years, from 1,745 in June 2008 to 2,090 at the end of December 2011 (an increase of 19.8%).
  • Increases in the number of people aged 85+ are the most significant cause of the above rise, and typically these will be more complex cases involving more hours of care. The number of people of this age supported to live at home has increased from 729 in March 2010 to 832 in March 2012, a rise of 14%; However, the actual hours of care for this demographic have risen by 21% in the same period.
  • The number of adults with a Learning Disability supported to live at home has increased by 21% since 2005, from 537 in June 2005 to 652 in June 2011 (there was a slight drop to 636 in March 2012, but this still represents an annual rise of 18%)
  • The number of people receiving Direct Payments (to purchase their own care) has increased by 70% in the last year, rising from 181 in March 2011 to 312 at the end of March 2012. Contributing factors to this have been our introduction of Managed Bank Accounts in June 2011, and service-users wishing to retain current carers under the new Domiciliary Framework.

Schools

  • Pupil populations at Reception age have risen by 14% between 2006 and 2011 and are projected to rise further by 11% (an additional 13 classes) from 2011 to 2014.
  • Welsh Government population projections suggest that the pre-school pupil population will continue to rise in future years.
  • The impact of the population increase is being felt acutely in the demand for Nursery places and is beginning to create pressures for additional accommodation at Reception level.
  • The city-wide Nursery-age shortfall (of over 300 places) is being met through non-maintained (private) providers and this shortfall is projected to increase.
  • Within this overall trend the proportional demand for Welsh-medium continues to rise relative to English-medium.
  • There has also been a steady rise in the uptake of free school meals – with almost 100,000 extra free school meals provided in 2011/12 in comparison with 2007/08.

Free School Meal Data

07/08 / 08/09 / 09/10 / 10/11 / 11/12
Total Free School Meals / 874,316 / 930,205 / 913,942 / 974,731 / 972,135
Average Daily Free / 4,602 / 4,698 / 4,687 / 4,973 / 5,037

Source: Cardiff Council

Housing and Benefit

  • Since 2008 there has been an increase in housing and council tax benefit claimants of 22% (from 32,637 to 39,744 as of March 2012). Claims for housing benefit from private tenants, the most difficult and time consuming cases, have increased by 95% over the same period (from 5,274 to 10,305).
  • The number of benefit customers attending the Councils central customer service point has increased by 24% since 2008 (from 3,993 per month to 4,953). This is despite an increase in locally based services.
  • Since 2010/11 funding for benefit administration and take up from DWP and WG has decreased by £657,000 despite the continuing growth in caseload.
  • The housing waiting list, which since 2010 has been a common single list for those registered with social landlords in the city (Housing associations and the Council) has risen from approximately 9,000 to 12,000 in the last two years dropping back slightly to just over 11,500 in February this year.

Housing Need – Waiting List

  • The main way the council address housing need and its legal rehousing duties is through relets. These have dropped consistently over the past 3 years, highlighting the increasing pressures being place on social housing in Cardiff.
  • Homelessness is also increasing and the number of people in temporary accommodation has grown by 25% in the last 18 months. There are currently 505 households in temporary accommodation, the highest since 2007. After several years of reducing the number in temporary accommodation, the recent increase shows no sign of abating.
  • The reform of Welfare in the UK will also have an impact on the demand for services. In particular, changes in the way housing benefit is provided will mean that a large number of housing benefit recipients in Cardiff considered to be under-occupying their residence will no longer be entitled to the same level of housing benefit for their current accommodation. This is estimated to affect 3,800 council tenants.
  • Further changes to benefit payments are also likely to increase demand for Council services, including benefits advice as well as the need to provide discretionary benefits in some cases. Those we expect to be impacted by the changes include:
  • 39,400 Housing Benefit and Council Tax Benefit recipients
  • Over 400 people directly affected by the total benefit cap being introduced.
  • 3,800 people affected by under occupation reduction in housing benefit.
  • 18,000 recipients of Social Fund payments.

Crime in Cardiff

  • Whilst overall levels of crime continue to fall, there are areas where crime levels have remained steady, or indeed increased in recent years.
  • In particular, other thefts, which includes theft from the person, theft of personal items in a public area, shoplifting and cycle theft, has increased steadily since 2008/09, and now accounts for around a third of all crimes taking place in Cardiff – up from just over a fifth in 2008/09.
  • Many of these crimes are associated with poverty and low incomes; it would be likely therefore that the economic climate would have an impact on these type of crimes –in particular ‘opportunist crimes’.
  • This data is in line with national trends, as outlined in a report last year by the Office for National Statistics.
  • The report found that whilst total level of crime continued to decrease during the recession, any changes seen during the recession have been small in the context of longer-term trend. However, some types of crime, such as burglary in a dwelling, common assault, and thefts from the person have increased during at least part of the recession period.[3]

Offences in Cardiff

2008/09 / 2009/10 / 2010/11 / 2011/12
Total / % / Total / % / Total / % / Total / %
Violence against the person / 6,692 / 16% / 6,260 / 16% / 6,140 / 18% / 5494 / 17%
Sexual offence / 352 / 1% / 290 / 1% / 274 / 1% / 274 / 1%
Robbery / 465 / 1% / 359 / 1% / 284 / 1% / 277 / 1%
Burglary of dwelling / 2,266 / 5% / 1,841 / 5% / 1,801 / 5% / 1886 / 6%
Burglary of other premises / 2,159 / 5% / 2,191 / 6% / 1,792 / 5% / 1967 / 6%
Theft of motor vehicle / 1,316 / 3% / 937 / 2% / 685 / 2% / 619 / 2%
Theft from motor vehicle / 6,349 / 15% / 4,649 / 12% / 3,126 / 9% / 3182 / 10%
Other theft / 9,839 / 23% / 9,864 / 26% / 9,870 / 29% / 10524 / 32%
Fraud or forgery / 1,109 / 3% / 1,027 / 3% / 890 / 3% / 795 / 2%
Criminal damage / 9,142 / 22% / 7,691 / 20% / 5,894 / 18% / 5015 / 15%
Drug trafficking / 314 / 1% / 420 / 1% / 346 / 1% / 308 / 1%
Other drugs offence / 1,888 / 4% / 1,962 / 5% / 1,888 / 6% / 1767 / 5%
Other notifiable offence / 547 / 1% / 530 / 1% / 476 / 1% / 389 / 1%
Grand Total / 42,438 / 38,021 / 33,466 / 32,497
  • Over the past year there have been four categories of crime that have increased, all of which are acquisitive, which is symptomatic of crime where the underlying cause can be in part attributed to poverty or lack of income.

Change in Recorded Crimes 2010/11 to 2011/12

Health

  • There is some evidence that across Wales there has been an increase in demand for some health services. Whilst in many cases the demand for health services are related to demographic changes, there are some elements that have risen in recent years in Cardiff and Wales as a result of the economic downturn.
  • For example, in May this year mental health charity Mind highlighted a surge in calls to its helplines since the start of the recession in Wales. Advisors at the charity say calls about personal finance and employment issues have doubled since 2008. Calls on all topics to the charity's helplines increased by up to 28% this year compared to last.
  • There have been some indications of a rise in levels of substance and alcohol; misuse in Cardiff, specifically alcohol. However, whilst some indicators show an increase, such as the number of individuals refereed for alcohol misuse, the overall incidence rates for drug misuse has fallen.

Estimated incidence rates

Measure / All referrals for alcohol misuse - number / Individuals referred for alcohol misuse - number / Estimated incidence rate - alcohol misuse / All referrals for drug misuse - number / Individuals referred for drug misuse - number / Estimated incidence rate - drug misuse
2009-10 / 1153 / 906 / 277 / 1620 / 1203 / 363
2010-11 / 1482 / 1131 / 337 / 1376 / 1026 / 304

Source: Stats Wales

  • Accident and emergency admissions have remained relatively steady over recent years, as shown in the chart below which depicts the total attendances in accident and emergency at the University Hospital of Wales.

Total Attendances in Accident and Emergency – UniversityHospital of Wales.
Source; Stats Wales
  • Disability Living Allowance (DLA) is a tax-free benefit for disabled children and adults to help with extra costs they may have if they are disabled. The number of people claiming DLA in Cardiff has continued to rise year on year in the city.

Benefit Claimants - Disability Living Allowance (Cardiff)
Source; Nomis
  • There has been a greater than 10% increase in the number of people claiming carer allowance in Cardiff over the past two years.
  • There has also been a continued increase in births in Cardiff, with the commensurate increase in the demand for health services for infants and young people in the city.

Live births in Cardiff
Source: Stats Wales

Other issues

The economic climate has had an impact on a wide range of demand for services, including:

  • ASB complaints –In 2010/11 – 2106 cases closed in year, for 2011/12 – 1927 cases were closed at December 2011. This equates to last years work being undertaken in 9 months with a reduced resource base.
  • Noise complaints – there has been an increase in noise complaints made to the Council of around 12%.
  • Economic issues are also impacting upon general regulatory inspections, particularly food hygiene, with an estimated 10% increase in workload.
  • Calls to C2C have increased by 7% between 2010/11 to 2011/12, with almost three quarters of a million calls handled in the period April 2011 to March 2012.
  • Whilst in Cardiff, there has been no increase in deliberate fires; there has been evidence across Wales that arson is on the increase.
  • Throughout Wales figures release for 2010-11 showed an annual increase in arson incidents of 11%.

Summary of increases in demand for local services in Cardiff / - 1 -

[1] The number child protection referrals is not available so Strategy Discussions have been used as a proxy. Note of caution – these figures may reflect increased use of the electronic format for recording strategy discussions. There may also be some underestimation of the number of children to whom these discussions apply as in some cases the information is recorded against one of a group of siblings.

[2] The numbers of care proceedings refers to sets of proceedings (sibling groups) rather than individual children.

[3] Regional Trends 43, 2010/11, Impact of the recession, Office for National Statistics