Department of Management
Course/Section / : / 3660/0
Title / : / CRN 20617 Business Forecasting
Schedule / : / Time: 2:00 – 4:30 pm, Tuesday
Location: FLETCHER 314
Contact Information:
Instructor / : / Parthasarati Dileepan, Ph.D.
Office Location / : / Fletcher Hall 106
Office Phone / : / 425-4675
Office Hours / : / 2:00 – 4:30 p.m. Th; 2:00 to 4:00 M, W, F on Hangouts and by appointment
Email Address / : /
ADA STATEMENT: Attention: If you are a student with a disability (e.g. physical, learning, psychiatric, vision, hearing, etc.) and think that you might need special assistance or a special accommodation in this class or any other class, call the Disability Resource Center (DRC) at 425-4006 or come by the office, 102 Frist Hall http://www.utc.edu/disability-resource-center/.
If you find that personal problems, career indecision, study and time management difficulties, etc. are adversely affecting your successful progress at UTC, please contact the Counseling and Career Planning Center at 425-4438 or http://www.utc.edu/counseling-personal-development-center/index.php .
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COURSE A study of forecasting processes including data collection, analysis, model
DESCRIPTION selection, and forecasting accuracy. Moving averages, smoothing models, time-series decomposition, simple regression, autocorrelation models, and Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) methodologies will be studied. Computer applications such as spreadsheets and statistical packages will be extensively used.
PREREQUISITES MGT 1000 or CPSC 1000, MGT 2120; junior standing, or department head approval.
OBJECTIVES The main objective of this course is to present students with an opportunity to understand and apply forecasting techniques in the business environment using computer software including spreadsheet and SPSS. Specifically, students will get an opportunity to develop expertise to:
· perform data analysis using computer spreadsheet software
· explore data using autocorrelation for time-series model building
· setup time-series models in computer spreadsheets for forecasting
· use regression models for forecasting using spreadsheet and SPSS
· use Box-Jenkins models for forecasting using SPSS
TEXT Business Forecasting, by John E. Hanke and Dean W. Wichern, Prentice Hall, 9th Edition 2009, ISBN-10: 0132301202, ISBN-13: 9780132301206
GRADING Three Exams 300
Home work 120
Attendance 30
EXAMS: Make-up exam for missed exams will be given only if proper documentation of the legitimate reasons is submitted within a week. No exceptions.
HOME WORK No homework more than 5 weekdays late will be accepted
First two late homework – free, no penalty
Third and fourth late homework – 5% penalty per weekday
No late homework will be accepted after the fourth late
GRADING SCALE A: Average 90%; B: 80% Average 90%; C: 70% Average < 80%; D: 60% Average < 70%; F: Average < 60%
CLASS ETIQUETTE All cell phones, tablets, and other wifi devices must be switched off in Airplane mode and put away during class. Students not observing this rule will be asked to leave the classroom and marked absent – no exceptions.
Spring 2014 BMGT 3660 Class Schedule (Subject to change)
Chapter / Topic
1 / Introduction
2 / Review of statistics
3 / Exploring data
Exam 2: March 18, 2014
Chapter / Topic
4 / Moving averages and smoothing
5 / Time series
6 / Simple linear regression
Exam 3: April 26, 2014 (Saturday 1:00 to 3:00)
Chapter / Topic
7 / Multiple regression analysis
8 / Regression with time series data
9 / The Box-Jenkins methodology
Other important dates
March 9, 2014 (Sunday): Last day to withdraw officially from the class with a W
March 11, 2014: Spring Break - No class
April 15, 2014: Last class
April 26, 2014: Exam 3 (Saturday 1:00 to 3:00)
Honor Code: The Honor Code is based upon the assumption that the student recognizes the fundamental importance of honesty in all dealings within the University community and that education is a cooperative enterprise between student and teacher and between student and student. Any act of dishonesty violates and weakens this relationship and lessens the value of the education which the student is pursuing. The Honor Code and the Honor Court and its procedures are detailed in the Student Handbook.
If you find that personal problems, career indecision, study and time management difficulties, etc. are adversely affecting your successful progress at UTC, please contact the Counseling and Career Planning Center at 425-4438 (room 338 of the University Center) or walk in to see a counselor between the hours of 9:00 to noon and 1:00 to 3:00 Monday through Friday.
Further, you are welcome throughout the semester to visit my office regarding career paths, graduate school, etc.