Defining Procedures for Decision Analysis

Design Report

Team May 02-14

December 4, 2001

Client: Dr. John Wm. Lamont & Dr. Ralph Patterson III

Faculty Advisors: Dr. John Wm. Lamont & Dr. Ralph Patterson III

Team Members

David Cohen

Amy Kalbacken

Theodore Scott

Hong Viet Nguyen

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents

List of Figures

List of Tables

Abstract

Acknowledgment

Definitions

Introduction

General Background

Technical Problem

Operating Environment

Intended User and Uses

Assumptions and Limitations

Design Requirements

Design Objectives:

Functionality Requirements:

Design Constraints:

Measurable Milestones:

End Product Description

Approach and Design

Technical Approaches

Technical Design

Testing Description

Risks and Risk Management

Recommendation for Continued Work

Financial Budget

Personnel Effort Budget

Project Schedule

Project Team Information

Summary

References

APPENDIX A...... A-

APPENDIX B...... B-

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List of Figures

Figure 1.1 Major Categories in Decision Process ……………………………………………….. 5

Figure 1.2 Basic Project Process …………………………………………………………………..8

Figure 1.3Comparison of Budgeted Hours to Actual Hours ……...……………………………...10

Figure 1.4 Original Gnatt Chart ...………………………………………………………………… 12 Figure 1.5 Revised Gnatt Chart ……………………………………………………………………13

List of Tables

Table 1.1 Financial Budget ………………………………………………………………………..10

Table 1.2 Personnel Effort Budget ………………………………………………………………..10

Table 1.3 Revised Personnel Effort Budget ……………………………………………………….11

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Abstract

Each day organizations make many important decisions regarding their products, processes, and services. The goal of this project, Defining Procedures for Decision Analysis, is to investigate the decision analysis process that occurs when developing a product for commercialization. By researching information on the commercialization and decision making process and by interviewing industry experts, the relevant factors of a product will be evaluated to see how the decision analysis is affected. Various decision processes will be evaluated and assessed using pertinent examples. The end product will help guide users in how to logically approach a decision analysis procedure and consider the major factors involved.

Acknowledgment

The team would like to acknowledge the advisors Dr. John Wm. Lamont and Dr. Ralph Patterson for providing valuable guidance throughout the project.

A special thanks also goes to the following people for taking the time out of their busy schedules to speak with us:

Dr. Keith Adams

Dr. Doug Gemmil

Dr. Kenneth Kirkland

Dr. Jo Min

Dr. Ron Nelson

Dr. Steve Russell

Mr. Michael Upah

Dr. Howard Van Aucken

Dr. Max Wortman

Definitions

By-product:Something produced in an industrial or biological process in addition to the principalproduct.

Commercialization:To proceed from the idea to the sellable product.

Company:A business, establishment or firm.

Demand:A need or want.

Estimate:To judge tentatively or approximately the value, worth, or significance of the

items both tangible and intangible.

Gate:A point where one evaluates the project up to its current point, and determines whether the project should continue.

Market:The course of commercial activity by which the exchange of commodities is effected. Can also be used to mean demand.

Market penetration:The extent to which a commercial product or agency is familiar or sells in a market.

Market share:The percentage of the market for a product that a company has.

Patent:Secured by letters patent or by a patent to the exclusive control and possession of a particular individual or party.

Process:A process that can be sold. Example, emersion tin coating process.

Product:Marketable physical items.

Production cost:Any expense used in the development or creation of the physical product,process, or service.

Profit:Net income, usually for a given period of time. Defined as production cost minus revenue.

Revenue:Amount received or gained, usually measured in money.

Competition:Products, process, or services similar in nature to owner’s product, process, or service. Competing in the same marketplace for each other’s marketshare.

ExpectedRequired maintenance to complete specific steps in commercializationmaintenance: process.

Manufacturability:Overall possibility of creating/enhancing the product, process, or service.

Rules & regulations:Industry, government, or any other rules and regulations that may apply.

Legality/liability:Overall legality of the process, service, or product, regarding any aspect of.

Knowledge andOverall company/resource knowledge and experience related to the product, experience: process, or service.

Intellectual property: See patents, Rules and Regulations.

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Introduction

General Background

Companies, businesses and other organizations that are developing products for commercialization often have to choose between multiple alternatives about how to proceed with a project. Should the project continue as planned? Should it be terminated? Should it change its goals and continue in another direction? Many inputs and factors come under consideration for this type of decision process. Whether a project includes a product, process, or service, different factors and inputs influences the decision. In order to approach this situation in an efficient way, a methodical process needs to be used. The negative and positive aspects need to be weighed logically. The final report will provide assistance to the reader during the decision making process.

Technical Problem

The goal of this project is to develop a guide that aids users in the decision analysis procedure. The guide will include an outline of a list of topics that are used in the decision making process along with extensive information concerning input definitions, external and internal factors, and possible results of the decision. These topics will allow a user to generate possibilities for commercialization. Researching published information on commercialization and decision making processes and interviewing industry experts will be the main source of information for the report. Brainstorming sessions will also provide valuable information. A previous senior design team developed a report on what factors should be used in decision analysis. These results will be taken into account and will be used a starting point for the new report. Methodologies from the results of the Engineering 466 project will be used to evaluate which decision making processes would be the best to use in the implementation phase of the project.

Operating Environment

The operating environment of the product would be any organization that is involved in developing products, processes, or services for commercialization. The final guide can be used by members of various industries since the guide is not industry specific. Different organizations may rank the importance of each factor differently.

Intended User and Uses

The users are people in an organization who have the authority to decide the courses of action for projects. The report should assist them in making rational choices about the future of a product, process, or service.

Assumptions and Limitations

These assumptions have been made concerning the project:

  • A user will need to take their companies’ goals into consideration when using this report.
  • This paper will aid in the decision making process but will not be only tool used in the decision process.
  • The user may have to think of other decision making factors and considerations when using this report.

The limitations of the project are:

  • Different companies may rank the importance of each factor differently.
  • The report will not be able to account for all data.
  • Decision processes evaluated will only be general approaches that will not automatically fit each specific situation.
  • The usefulness of this report maybe limited depending on what part of the process the organization is in and depending on how large the organization is.
  • All possible factors, inputs, and results may not be uncovered due to time constraints.

Design Requirements

Design Objectives:

The overall design objective is a written report. The report will consist of an introduction to the report, information on how to utilize the report most effectively, and example situations where the report could have been used. Also included will be sufficient background information regarding the decision process.

Functionality Requirements:

Included will be key areas to investigate during the decision making process. Organized in order of importance, these factors help in guiding the decision process by logically assessing key areas regarding decision making. Key inputs as well as possible results will be included and examples will be cited. The end product will be able to evaluate several different decision scenarios by researching key areas of each particular decision. This paper will also ensure that decision makers have taken all relevant key areas into account. The following list consists of several key areas that can be evaluated in several different scenarios. These key areas are a generalization of possible scenario factors. These key areas were generated from the categories shown in Figure 1.1 and from the breakdown of those categorieswhich are listed in Appendix A.

  • Competition
  • Demand
  • Exp. Maintenance
  • Primary/Secondary Product
  • Manufacturability
  • Profitability
  • Rules, regulations
  • Resources available
  • Legality, Liability
  • Knowledge, experience
  • Intellectual property
  • Labor requirements
  • By-products
  • Company image & goals
  • Lifetime

a) Product itself

b) Concept

  • Weighting/considerations
  • Documentation

This paper will also ensure that decision makers have taken all categories into account. Figure 1.1 describes the categories. Note these categories are preliminary and were used from the Engineering 466 project. These categories are also broken down specifically in the Decision Spreadsheet located in Appendix A.

Design Constraints:

Belo w are the constraints considered during the design and implementation of the project:

  • The report will be utilized by any individual requiring assistance during the decision making process about a product, process, or service.
  • Several more interviews need to be conducted in order to gain insight into decision-making process.
  • Information researched from the Internet must be weighed carefully due to the possible of inaccuracies.
  • All possible factors, inputs, and results may not be uncovered due to the time constraint.
  • Additional research must be conducted to better understand algorithms associated with current decision making formulas.
  • Additional research must be conducted to better understand current decision making techniques introduced during current interviewing process.

Measurable Milestones:

The following is a list of the measurable milestones that are to be achieved during this project:

  1. Initial Startup

Initial startup consists of completing the project definition, identifying key inputs factors regarding the decision process, coordinating lists of interviewees, and writing a proper pre-list of questions and summary. It will be evaluated based on its completeness compared to that of the final report. It is estimated that if 70% of initial startup is present, then the milestone was met.

  1. Project Plan

The project plan will be evaluated based on the coverage of the team plan regarding all aspects of the project. It will be submitted to faculty advisors for review. Necessary changes will be made. The success for this milestone is dependent on whether 80% of the final report is derived from the project plan. If so, then the milestone will be met.

  1. Survey/Interview Results

All team members will aid in constructing a pre-list of questions and summary to be sent to potential interviewees. The pre-list of question and summary can be found in Appendix B. Upon completion of the pre-list, interviews will commence, with a minimum of two group members present during each interview. The interview data and survey results will be major factors regarding the development of the report in its entirety. The milestone will be measured by the number of interviewees interviewed, and the amount of information acquired from the interviews. If 50% of interviews are completed, the milestone will be met. Accuracy of the data will have to be taken into consideration when using the interview data. Currently over 50% of the interviews have concluded.

  1. Implementation

This milestone will measure how well the implementation was carried out. The information collected will be complied into the end product. This milestone will be met if the functionality and design requirements are fulfilled. To implement the end product, information from the Engineering 466 team will be used to determine the best algorithms for decision analysis. Also information collected from research and interviews will be taken into consideration. Software possibilities will be discussed as well in this phase.

  1. Testing

This milestone will measure the success of the report as a whole. It will be time to test the accurateness of the report, and to find and fix any errors within. This will determine whether or not the product will need any significant changes.

  1. Final Report

The final report summarizes the results of the project and its end product. It will include descriptions of all key areas within the final report including the introduction, methodology, and specific examples. Also included will be necessary appendices and supplementary material including interview documentation and other useful materials.

  1. End product

This will measure the overall effectiveness of the end product. The end product must be helpful during decision-making tasks. It will include information regarding the use of the final report.

  1. Presentation to Industrial Panelists

This will be measured by the effectiveness of the group presentation to the panelists. In order to meet the milestone, the group must successfully identify why the project was done, what milestones were met, what the end product consists of, and a question and answer session. Success will be determined on whether many questions regard conceptual or fundamental issues within the project.

End Product Description

The end product for this project will consist of a written report. Included within will be analysis of the key factors regarding decision processes and examples of several methodologies utilized successfully by individuals in the field. The report will aid individuals in conducting thorough analysis of the decision factors surrounding their particular idea. Evaluation of this report will be conducted both individually and in a group setting and by an outside expert.

Approach and Design

Technical Approaches

The final report will be developed by meeting with advisors, researching published information, interviewing members of the academic and business communities, and brainstorming meetings:

  • Meeting with advisors will be a valuable source of information. The faculty advisors will be able to give guidance on whom to interview and where to find other pertinent information from the industry.
  • Researching published information will provide the team with more evidence of industry decision making processes. The team will be searching for information concerning commercialization, decision making process, and decision analysis. This will provide information on decision situations and methodologies.
  • Interviewing members of the academic and business communities will be conducted with approximately eight experts. These interviews will provide insight into the interviewee’s experience with their criteria for decision making and some real world examples of the decision process.
  • Brainstorming meetings will be conducted to generate ideas for the inputs, influence factors, other factors, results, and decision processes for products, process, and services.

Technical Design

The materials to be defined to create the actual design are the following:

  • Completing the project definition
  • Reviewing the current product development paper and spreadsheet
  • Researching real world examples and pertinent information
  • Defining the possible inputs
  • Defining the factors both internal and external
  • Defining possible results
  • Defining various types of decision making activities
  • Reviewing and incorporating the results of the Engineering 466 team
  • Defining the different decision processes
  • Selecting which decision processes should be used
  • Defining implementation methods
  • Discussing software possibilities for decision making process

Figure 1.1 describes the basic process for this project in the form of a simple diagram. The information listed in the diagram will be defined in the final report.

Figure 1.1 Basic Project Process

The selection of the decision process can be controlled either automatically, manually, or by both. An automatic selection of the decision process would be one where the inputs and factors dictated what process will be used. A manual selection of the decision process would where an individual carefully reviews all of the possible inputs and factors and decides which process to use. In certain cases both could be used if there is a large decision to be made which includes several smaller decisions.

Testing Description

The form of testing that will be used will be to take a completed senior design project and test the feasibility of moving forward in the project. Each group member will complete this form of testing. A testing form will be provided to the group members. The team will determine acceptance criteria for a positive test. The final report will be tested by having industry or academia members review the report and give their opinion on the thoroughness and practicality of the information. These individuals will be able to record comments on a form developed for the testing.

Risks and Risk Management

The following risks may be encountered during the scope of this project:

  • The risk of not being able to schedule the interviews within the give amount of time for the project. This risk can be managed by beginning to plan the interviews ahead of time. To date, this risk has been handled well. The majority of our interviews have been completed without too much trouble. This was done through careful planning and delegation to individual group members.
  • The risk of being able to find too much outside documentation on commercialization of a product and the decision making process. This risk is being managed by asking advisors and interviewees if they know of any credible sources of information and by determining which information is most pertinent to the subject matter.
  • The risk of a team member dropping the course or not participating fully in the project is another risk that the group may encounter. This risk can be managed by making sure all group members share the information found with each other. This can also be managed by documenting the information that is collected.
  • The risk of a team member not completely understanding the full scope of this project may be encountered as well. So far, this has been mostly avoided by making sure the group members ask questions if unsure of any part of the project. The faculty advisors have helped avoid this problem as well by answering our questions during the weekly meetings.

Recommendation for Continued Work