Decision Strategy International’s “Cone of Uncertainty”
Instead of forecasting when one follows a trend and adds estimated deviations, scenario planning presents a cone of possible “futures”
(Photo: Andrea Mohin/The New York Times)
“Gowanus Canal Tonky Octopus”
by the artist Tonky (tonkydesigns.com)
BrooklynCollege Students Take on the Future of the GowanusCanal
(Photo published in New YorkMagazine, 2009)
Scenario Planning for Robust Interdisciplinary Instruction and Meaningful Community Engagement
Brett Branco
Patrick Kavanagh
Niesha Ziehmke -
A main goal of learning community planning for first year college students
is to offer holistic, transformative learning (Kissock & Tushaus 2010). A key way to promote this type of dynamic learning experience is by making community exploration and engagement an integral part of learning community courses (Eyler and Giles 1999). BrooklynCollege’s learning community initiative embraces these precepts. In response, Professors Brett Branco, Jocelyn Wills, and Patrick Kavanagh have created an integrated learning community which leads students through the environmental, social, and political history of the GowanusCanal, a Superfund site in Brooklyn, New York. The learning community includes a freshman seminar that provides critical support to the students.
Professors Branco and Wills wanted to create a project allowing students to employ all they had learned in earth and environmental sciences and global history to think critically about the historical forces that created today’s Gowanus Canal, and to craft ideas about how those forces, as well as contemporary trends and future uncertainties might guide transformations in the surrounding neighborhoods over the next 25 years. The goals of this learning community design are to:
- Develop students’ understanding of the power of interdisciplinary studies.
- Integrate students into the BrooklynCollege community.
- Engage students with their local community.
- Empower students to discuss issues with community organizations and leaders.
- Increase students’ satisfaction with the learning community experience.
Scenario planning provides a vehicle through which students can undertake the research and the critical analysis required to create and write “histories” or “memories” of the future--plausible, relevant, and alternative stories built around carefully constructed plots that help to explain historical forces and changes that may move us from current circumstances and into an uncertain future (Schoemaker 2002, Kahane 2007). Our students will present four very different scenarios to an audience in ways that closely resemble the work of those who advise community leaders about choices they will have to make when thinking about the multiple paths that the future might take. Professor Branco infuses the project with a natural science-based perspective, while Professor Wills brings several years of experience in scenario planning to the historical project. By the end of the semester, students will have engaged interdisciplinary studies in a meaningful way that allows them to simulate the discussions that guide various stakeholder groups, including those now thinking about and seeking to influence the future of the GowanusCanal.
References
Eyler, J. and Giles, D.E., Jr. 1999. Where’s the learning in service-learning?San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Kahane, Adam. 2007. Solving Tough Problems: An Open Way of Talking, Listening, and Creating New Realities.
Kissock, S. and Tushaus, D. 2010. Promoting civic engagement in a Learning Community by using students as poll monitors. Journal of Learning Communities.
Schoemaker, P. J.H. 2002. Profiting from Uncertainty: Strategies for Succeeding No Matter What the Future Brings.