CURRENT TRENDS AND RECENT ADVANCES IN APPLIED BIOMETRY

International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)

Nairobi

Kenya

August 30 – September 3, 2004

SPONSORED BY THE FLEMISH INTERUNIVERSITY COUNCIL (VLIR)

Brussels, Belgium

Contract number: NICP2004NA005

Since 1993 the Limburgs Universitair Centrum (LUC, Diepenbeek, Belgium) offers the International Course Programme ‘Master of Science in Biostatistics’. The programme is supported by the Flemish Interuniversity Council (VLIR). Every year the VLIR-scholarship programme attaches 16 scholarships for students from the South to this master programme. To keep contact with former students the VLIR also supports, once every five years, a scientific follow-up activity.

Since we know that in East and southern Africa there is a keen interest in enhancing the capacity in biometry and biostatistics and since many of our former students come from this region, Nairobi (Kenya) was chosen as the appropriate location for the follow-up workshop.

After a meeting with the staff from the Biometrics Unit at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) back in January 2003 and after contacting our colleagues in statistics at the University of Nairobi, we agreed that ILRI was the appropriate venue.

We succeeded in organizing short courses on ‘animal epidemiology and animal breeding’ (dr. Vincent Ducrocq) and on ‘modeling infectious diseases data’ (dr. Khangelani Zuma and dr. Ziv Shkedy). These short courses will provide up-to-date statistical methodology needed to analyze data obtained from ongoing agricultural and medical projects in the South. Related to the material offered by dr. Ducrocq we will have a short workshop on ‘fitting frailty models’ (dr. Luc Duchateau, dr. Rosemary Nguti and dr. Paul Janssen). We further will have a short workshop on ‘enhancement of biometric capacity’ (dr. John Owino and dr. John Rowlands).

Six invited speakers will contribute to the programme: dr. Luc Bijnens, dr. Krista Fischer and dr. R. Nguti are former students from our programme and are at the moment active as biostatisticians. Dr. Linda Haines is responsible for the biometrics programme at the University of KwaZulu Natal (Pietermaritzburg, South Africa) and dr. Margaret Nabasirye (Makarere University, Uganda) has been visiting professor at the Limburgs Universitair Centrum to teach ‘topics in biometry’. Finally dr. Noël Veraverbeke is one of the founders of the biostatistics programme at the LUC.

We are also happy that a group of former students and colleagues from research institutes and universities in East and southern Africa agreed to give contributed presentations.

Almost 45 participants enrolled for the workshop. We hope it will be a fruitful week and we expect that it will tighten further the already existing links between institutes in Africa and LUC.

We thank the local organizing committee at ILRI (chaired by dr. Rosemary Nguti) for the efforts they put in organizing this workshop. Also thanks to my colleagues dr. Luc Duchateau, dr. Noël Veraverbeke and Mrs. Martine Machiels for helping me, at the Belgian side, in the organization.

Looking forward to meeting our alumni and African colleagues for an interesting week on biostatistics.

Diepenbeek, August 23, 2004

Paul Janssen

Monday, August 30, 2004

09:00-09:10John McDermott (ILRI Deputy Director General – Programmes) Welcome

09:10-10:40 Vincent Ducrocq (Institut National de la Recherche

Agronomique (INRA), Station de Génétique

Quantitative et Appliquée, Jouy-en-Josas, France)

Some illustrations of the use of proportional hazard models in animal

epidemiology

10:40-11:00 Coffee

11:00-11:45Noel Veraverbeke (Limburgs Universitair Centrum, Belgium)

Estimating the survival function under dependent or partially informative

censoring

11:45-12:30 Rosemary Nguti (University of Nairobi, Kenya)

Title to be announced (frailty models)

12:30-14:00 Lunch

14:00-15:30Workshop on frailty models (part 1)

Luc Duchateau (University of Gent, Belgium)

Paul Janssen (Limburgs Universitair Centurm, Diepenbeek, Belgium)

Rosemary Nguti (University of Nairobi, Kenya)

15:30-16:00 Coffee

16:00-17:20 Contributed papers (4 presentations of 20’)

Tuesday, August 31, 2004

09:00-10:30Vincent Ducrocq

The ‘Survival Kit’, software for analysing large data sets with proportional

hazards models

10:30-11:00 Coffee break

11:00-12:30Ziv Shkedy (Limburgs Universitair Centrum, Belgium) and

Khangelani Zuma (Human Sciences Research Council, Private Bag X 41,Pretoria, South Africa)

Introduction. Data structure, mathematical models for infectious disease

and the impact of mixing patterns on the spread of the disease

12:30-14:00Lunch

14:00-15:30Vincent Ducrocq

Some illustrations of the use of frailty models in animal breeding

15:30-16:00 Coffee

16:00-17:30 Workshop on frailty models (part 2)

Duchateau, Janssen and Nguti

Wednesday, September 1, 2004

09:00-10:30Ziv Shkedy and Khangelani Zuma

Estimating from current status data

10:30-11:00 Coffee break

11:00-11:45Linda Haines (University of Natal, South Africa)

Response surface methodology in agriculture

11:45-12:30Margaret Nabasirye (Makarere University, Uganda)

Suitability of standard experimental designs for on-farm trials

12:30-14:00Lunch

14:00-21:00Social activity and conference dinner

Thursday, September 2, 2004

09:00-10:30Luc Bijnens (Johnson&Johnson, Janssen Pharmaceutica, Beerse,

Belgium)

Statistics in research and development of medicines

10:30-11:00 Coffee

11:00-12:20 Contributed papers (4 presentations of 20’)

12:30-14:00Lunch

14:00-15:30Ziv Shkedy and Khangelani Zuma

Modelling interval censored data

15:30-16:00 Coffee

16:00-17:30Ziv Shkedy and Khangelani Zuma

Case studies (1): Modelling the outbreak of AIDS in US and the impact of

migration on the spread of HIV/STI

Friday, September 3, 2004

09:00-10:00Krista Fischer (University of Tartu, Estonia)

Causal graphs and structural modeling for estimating effects of

hormone therapy in a trial setting

10:00-11:00Ziv Shkedy and Khangelani Zuma

Case studies (2): Modelling the outbreak of AIDS in US and the impact of

migration on the spread of HIV/STI

11:00-11:30 Coffee

11:30-12:30 Contributed papers (3 presentations of 20’)

12:30-14:00Lunch

14:00-15:30 Workshop on enhancement of biometric capacity

John Rowlands, Mamadou Dhiedhiou (International

Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya)

John Owino, JohnOdhiamboUniversity of Nairobi, Kenya)

Rick Coe (World Agroforestry Centre, Nairobi, Kenya)

15:30-16:00 Coffee

16:00-17:30 Workshop on enhancement of biometric capacity

Rowlands, Dhiedhiou, Owino/Odhiambo, Coe

18:00-20:00Cocktail

Optional activity on Tuesday evening

John Rowlands

Demonstration of biometrics training resource that ILRI is working on