SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL
Table S1. Breeding success – model selection – SOUTHERN FULMAR – Each model is presented with the explanatory variable included: 1=cst, no effect of age; age, linear effect of age; age2, quadratic effect of age; log(age), logarithmic effect of age; T1, T2, model with one threshold (two slopes); T1, T2, T3, model with two thresholds (three slopes); bsann, inter-annual variations in breeding success; soi, southern oscillation index;sieautumn, sea ice extent values for autumn; * stands for interaction. AIC-difference with the best model (ΔAIC) are presented together with the corresponding AIC weight (AICw).
Model / 1=cst / age / age2 / log(age) / T1 / T2 / T3 / bsann / soi / sieautumn / bsann * T3 / ΔAIC / AICw33 / x / x / x / x / x / 0.00 / 0.46
36 / x / x / x / x / x / x / 1.93 / 0.18
35 / x / x / x / x / x / x / 1.94 / 0.18
25 / x / x / x / x / 3.77 / 0.07
29 / x / x / x / x / 4.43 / 0.05
27 / x / x / x / x / x / 5.74 / 0.03
34 / x / x / x / x / x / 6.07 / 0.02
21 / x / x / x / 7.14 / 0.01
26 / x / x / x / x / 8.76 / 0.01
1 / x / 96.30 / 0
2 / x / 84.97 / 0
3 / x / x / 67.65 / 0
4 / x / x / x / 23.55 / 0
5 / x / x / x / 60.73 / 0
6 / x / x / x / 68.16 / 0
7 / x / x / x / x / 57.47 / 0
8 / x / x / x / x / 21.90 / 0
9 / x / x / x / x / 25.54 / 0
10 / x / x / x / x / x / 23.49 / 0
11 / x / 75.2 / 0
12 / x / x / 28.78 / 0
13 / x / x / 70.65 / 0
14 / x / x / 76.09 / 0
15 / x / x / x / 68.97 / 0
16 / x / x / x / 28.48 / 0
17 / x / x / x / 30.71 / 0
18 / x / x / x / x / 30.41 / 0
19 / x / 50.15 / 0
20 / x / x / 56.53 / 0
22 / x / x / x / 46.67 / 0
23 / x / x / x / 57.91 / 0
24 / x / x / x / x / 45.31 / 0
28 / x / x / x / 51.42 / 0
30 / x / x / x / x / 39.84 / 0
31 / x / x / x / x / 52.8 / 0
32 / x / x / x / x / x / 38.23 / 0
1
Table S2. Breeding success – model selection – SNOW PETREL – Each model is presented with the explanatory variable included: 1=cst, no effect of age; age, linear effect of age; age2, quadratic effect of age; log(age), logarithmic effect of age; T1, T2, model with one threshold (two slopes); T1, T2, T3, model with two thresholds (three slopes); bsann, inter-annual variations in breeding success; soi, southern oscillation index;sieautumn, sea ice extent values for autumn. AIC-difference with the best model (ΔAIC) are presented together with the corresponding AIC weight (AICw).
Model / 1=cst / age / age2 / log(age) / T1 / T2 / T3 / bsann / soi / sieautumn / ΔAIC / AICw21 / x / x / x / 0.000 / 0.251
29 / x / x / x / x / 0.941 / 0.157
25 / x / x / x / x / 1.881 / 0.098
26 / x / x / x / x / 1.888 / 0.098
12 / x / x / 2.248 / 0.082
33 / x / x / x / x / x / 2.805 / 0.062
34 / x / x / x / x / x / 2.812 / 0.062
27 / x / x / x / x / x / 3.847 / 0.037
17 / x / x / x / 4.131 / 0.032
16 / x / x / x / 4.206 / 0.031
4 / x / x / x / 4.369 / 0.028
35 / x / x / x / x / x / x / 4.766 / 0.023
18 / x / x / x / x / 6.130 / 0.012
8 / x / x / x / x / 6.323 / 0.011
9 / x / x / x / x / 6.286 / 0.011
10 / x / x / x / x / x / 8.279 / 0.004
19 / x / 8.737 / 0.003
1 / x / 112.167 / 0
2 / x / 112.586 / 0
3 / x / x / 112.854 / 0
5 / x / x / x / 114.368 / 0
6 / x / x / x / 105.163 / 0
7 / x / x / x / x / 102.060 / 0
11 / x / 111.664 / 0
13 / x / x / 113.190 / 0
14 / x / x / 104.487 / 0
15 / x / x / x / 101.679 / 0
20 / x / x / 110.013 / 0
22 / x / x / x / 111.339 / 0
23 / x / x / x / 102.352 / 0
24 / x / x / x / x / 98.606 / 0
28 / x / x / x / 109.599 / 0
30 / x / x / x / x / 110.852 / 0
31 / x / x / x / x / 102.292 / 0
32 / x / x / x / x / x / 98.445 / 0
1
Table S3. Breeding probability – model selection – SOUTHERN FULMAR – Each model is presented with the explanatory variable included: 1=cst, no effect of age; age, linear effect of age; age2, quadratic effect of age; log(age), logarithmic effect of age; T1, T2, model with one threshold (two slopes); T1, T2, T3, model with two thresholds (three slopes); bsann, inter-annual variations in breeding success; soi, southern oscillation index;sieautumn, sea ice extent values for autumn; * stands for interaction. AIC-difference with the best model (ΔAIC) are presented together with the corresponding AIC weight (AICw).
Model / 1=cst / age / age2 / log(age) / T1 / T2 / T3 / bpann / soi / sieautumn / bpann * T3 / ΔAIC / AICw29 / x / x / x / x / 0.000 / 0.405
33 / x / x / x / x / x / 1.445 / 0.196
36 / x / x / x / x / x / 1.757 / 0.168
34 / x / x / x / x / x / 1.987 / 0.150
35 / x / x / x / x / x / x / 3.415 / 0.073
21 / x / x / x / 9.310 / 0.004
25 / x / x / x / x / 11.087 / 0.002
26 / x / x / x / x / 11.306 / 0.001
27 / x / x / x / x / x / 13.060 / 0.001
1 / x / 280.976 / 0
2 / x / 258.803 / 0
3 / x / x / 254.115 / 0
4 / x / x / x / 17.832 / 0
5 / x / x / x / 256.102 / 0
6 / x / x / x / 255.905 / 0
7 / x / x / x / x / 257.812 / 0
8 / x / x / x / x / 19.564 / 0
9 / x / x / x / x / 19.832 / 0
10 / x / x / x / x / x / 21.523 / 0
11 / x / 252.474 / 0
12 / x / x / 24.477 / 0
13 / x / x / 254.473 / 0
14 / x / x / 254.316 / 0
15 / x / x / x / 256.283 / 0
16 / x / x / x / 26.405 / 0
17 / x / x / x / 26.474 / 0
18 / x / x / x / x / 28.403 / 0
19 / x / 30.982 / 0
20 / x / x / 234.406 / 0
22 / x / x / x / 236.269 / 0
23 / x / x / x / 236.358 / 0
24 / x / x / x / x / 238.128 / 0
28 / x / x / x / 232.115 / 0
30 / x / x / x / x / 233.838 / 0
31 / x / x / x / x / 234.087 / 0
32 / x / x / x / x / x / 235.686 / 0
1
Table S4. Breeding probability – model selection – SNOW PETREL – Each model is presented with the explanatory variable included: 1=cst, no effect of age; age, linear effect of age; age2, quadratic effect of age; log(age), logarithmic effect of age; T1, T2, model with one threshold (two slopes); T1, T2, T3, model with two thresholds (three slopes); bsann, inter-annual variations in breeding success; soi, southern oscillation index;sieautumn, sea ice extent values for autumn. AIC-difference with the best model (ΔAIC) are presented together with the corresponding AIC weight (AICw).
Model / 1=cst / age / age2 / log(age) / T1 / T2 / T3 / bpann / soi / sieautumn / ΔAIC / AICw29 / x / x / x / x / 0.000 / 0.334
34 / x / x / x / x / x / 1.964 / 0.125
33 / x / x / x / x / x / 1.986 / 0.124
21 / x / x / x / 2.585 / 0.092
12 / x / x / 3.473 / 0.059
19 / x / 3.757 / 0.051
35 / x / x / x / x / x / x / 3.970 / 0.046
25 / x / x / x / x / 4.597 / 0.034
26 / x / x / x / x / 4.583 / 0.034
16 / x / x / x / 5.471 / 0.022
17 / x / x / x / 5.467 / 0.022
4 / x / x / x / 5.644 / 0.020
27 / x / x / x / x / x / 6.600 / 0.012
18 / x / x / x / x / 7.466 / 0.008
8 / x / x / x / x / 7.640 / 0.007
9 / x / x / x / x / 7.638 / 0.007
10 / x / x / x / x / x / 9.637 / 0.003
1 / x / 179.452 / 0
2 / x / 138.595 / 0
3 / x / x / 140.186 / 0
5 / x / x / x / 141.043 / 0
6 / x / x / x / 141.167 / 0
7 / x / x / x / x / 140.686 / 0
11 / x / 142.406 / 0
13 / x / x / 142.965 / 0
14 / x / x / 143.270 / 0
15 / x / x / x / 142.245 / 0
20 / x / x / 136.764 / 0
22 / x / x / x / 137.434 / 0
23 / x / x / x / 137.894 / 0
24 / x / x / x / x / 137.129 / 0
28 / x / x / x / 136.473 / 0
30 / x / x / x / x / 137.200 / 0
31 / x / x / x / x / 137.400 / 0
32 / x / x / x / x / x / 136.725 / 0
1