AKC 5 General – Spring Term 2010 – Conflicts & Conflict Resolution07/02/11

AKC 5 – 21 February 2011

Conflicts & Conflict Resolution

Lecture 5: The Price of Non Resolution

Mr Simon A. Waldman, Lecturer in Middle East and Mediterranean Studies, KCL

Conflicts discussed

Cyprus Dispute

Conflict between Greek and Turkish population of Cyprus, which following a civil war in 1963-4, reached its crescendo in 1974 with a Turkish invasion and the subsequent declaration of the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Despite various attempts at mediation and negotiations no resolution has yet been forthcoming.

Nagorno Karabakh

Conflict involving Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno Karabakh region of Azerbaijan which has a majority of ethnic Armenians. Cease fire was brokered in 1993 and despite the cease fire holding, no resolution to the conflict has yet been forthcoming.

Arab-Israeli Conflict

A dispute between Arab and Jew over the right to have a Jewish state in the land of Israel/Palestine. The conflict has taken the form of three all out wars between Israel and her Arab neighbors as well as more limited state-on-state wars. The conflict has seen two peace treaties; one between Israel and Egypt (1979), and the other between Israel and Jordan (1994). Nevertheless, peace treaties between Israel and other Arab states have not yet been forthcoming, with the added difficulty of the involvement of non-state actors in the conflict.

Israel-Palestine Question

A particular component of the Arab-Israeli Conflict centred on the creation of a Palestinian state on territory occupied by Israel after the 1967 Six Day War. The Palestine question focuses on questions concerning the future establishment of the Palestinian state such as final borders, the status of Jerusalem and the future of Palestinian refugees and their descendants from the 1948 War.

Kurdish Question in Turkey

The Kurds are a stateless people who form a significant ethno-linguistic minority in Middle East countries such as Iraq, Iran, Syria and particularly Turkey. There have been movements for autonomy in each country. The Kurdistan Works Party (PKK) have launched a campaign for autonomy or independence against Turkey since the late 1970s.

Dangers associated with Resolution or Mediation:

  • A failed attempt can lead to a chain of events that can reignite conflict
  • Non resolution is still better than war
  • Question of timing

Consequences of Non Resolution:

Some economic consequences of non resolution:

  • Boycotts and embargoes
  • Effects of Arab boycott of Israel, Armenian isolation, Northern Cypriot non recognition
  • Unemployment and poverty
  • Stagnation of economy
  • Dependence on external support
  • Decline in bilateral trade

Effects on human potential:

  • Increase in military spending
  • Israeli and Syrian defense spending compared to Britain
  • Decrease of spending in public services
  • Conscription and military service in Middle East
  • Palestinian indoctrination
  • Divergence of human enterprise

Some psychological factors:

  • Time and distance reinforces perception of other side as enemy not interlocutor
  • Fortress mentalities
  • Israeli siege mentality
  • Palestinian culture of victimhood

Maintenance of authoritarianism:

  • External threat as excuse for lack of democracy
  • Dictatorial leadership and the perpetuation of conflict
  • Hope in the Middle East?

Unilateral actions:

  • Israel’s Gaza Plan
  • Palestinian declaration of statehood
  • Unilateral actions have potential to reignite conflicts

Non Resolution leads to further conflict:

  • Problem not solved and can therefore reignite
  • Example: Cyprus dispute
  • Example 2: Turkey’s Kurdish problem
  • Looking ahead: Israel’s demographic time bomb

Consequences of potential conflict in Middle East for Britain:

  • Disruption to oil prices and/or increase of oil price
  • British business interests in region could be affected
  • British civilians in region could be targeted
  • Military bases and/or personnel at risk
  • Domestic security and terrorist threat
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