Concept Note NIF Work Stream 8- Total Syrian Population Estimates

Concept Note NIF Work stream 8- Total Syrian population estimates

Key Driver / Country wide total Syrian population estimates reviewed using humanitarian standards and agreed between all hubs and key stakeholders. Final estimations will be used in the future as HNO-SRP reference fostering further evidence-based population tracking.
Objective / To define and agree on Whole of Syria (WoS) Total Population estimates using the humanitarian profile model and in consensus among all hubs responding to the crisis.
Sub-objectives /

1. Ensure total population estimates per sub-districts with key stakeholders as ESCWA, UNDESA etc. contributing to a more accurate estimations taking into consideration the impact of the conflict dynamics in Syria.
2. Achieve an inter-hubs agreement on total population estimates per sub-districts to be considered as reference for next strategic humanitarian response plans reflected in upcoming documents as HNO and SRP.
3. Establish an accurate estimates baseline allowing fosteringand comparing against more evidence-based population tracking at Governorate and sub-district levels.

Working method / Work flow / The method of work for this stream will be collaborative for direction and inputs, but relies on a core multi –sector/agency sprint team (tbd) that undertakes the leg work and reports to the needs sub group on key milestones for approval and moving forward.
The key steps of the process are as follows:

1. Define the group within SIMAWG needs sub-group members that will act as a sounding board that defines the working method and approves key milestones
2. Define the sprint team that will undertake the leg work
3. Develop/refine/harmonize bridging and harmonization tools or elements and develop a refined Total population estimates methodology
4. Conduct workshop to discuss and put forward lead expert’s draft methodology for total population estimates
5. Put forward the proposal resulting from the workshop to the SIMAWG for discussion and approval
6. SIMAWG suggests the refined total population estimates method for ISCCG endorsement
7. Use the new method for the HNO review workshop in August 2015.

Activities / Responsible / Target Date

1. Develop concept note corresponding to NIF work stream 8 -Total Syrian population estimates.

/ NIF / April 23

1. Endorse concept note with needs SG and explore and analyze work stream steps forward through assigning roles and responsibilities

/ NIF/SIMAWG-Needs Sub-group / April 28

1. Form SIMAWG multi-agency sprint team to follow up on population estimates with key agencies and experts.

/ NIF/SIMAWG-Needs Sub-group / April 28

1. Identify lead technical expert to facilitate reaching consensus on total population.

/ NIF/SIMAWG-Needs Sub-group / May 13

1. Undertake desk review of existing figures and methodologies by contacting and exploring the support of key actors reviewing total population estimates (ESCWA, UNDESA, UNOSAT,

Landscan) / OCHA RO/NIF / May 7

1. Undertake consultation visits to the different hubs in support of the process coordination including:

-Lebanon: Coordination with ESCWA and OCHA-Damascus
-Gaziantep: Coordination with OCHA-Gaziantep
-Other locations: If needed as per agreed agenda / NIF / Between:
May 13-June 28

1. Draft 0 of total population estimates methodology finalized

/ Expert/ SIMAWG TF/ NIF / June 13

1. Conduct workshop to discuss and put forward lead expert’s draft methodology for total population estimates

/ NIF/SIMAWG-Needs & data Sub-groups/others / Week June 15

1. Review and endorsemethodology and final figures for Total Syrian population estimates.

/ NIF/SIMAWG-Needs & data Sub-groups/others / Week June 15-June 29

1. Presentunified methodology and figures ready to be used by humanitarian actors and HNO-SRP including humanitarian standards as SADDD.

/ NIF/SIMAWG-Needs & data Sub-groups/others / June 29
Assumptions / Timely, positive response and active participation from technical entities and experts on population estimates.
Timely, positive response and active participation from SIMAWG subgroups members upon need including time allocation to specific tasks.
Flexibility of application of standard estimates/projection methodology(ies) ensuring best possible results
Technical expertise finds the way through for allowing that a) conflict dynamics are included to the extent that is possible on the estimates b) creates a methodology easily to update in the future and b) disaggregates the population estimates to the lower possible granularity (Governorate, District, sub-district).
Risks / Overcoming
One single estimates/projection methodology cannot be applied for producing the estimates. / NIF coordination will facilitate the communication between different technical experts’ bodies ensuring to bridge any potential methodological limitation.
The process faces limited level of granularity. / Total population estimates will arrive to the lower level of possible granularity.
Hubs and potential task forces work in parallel. / Continuous communication and field visits will ensure appropriate coordination mechanisms and agenda follow up.
Not all actors endorse final products. / Unlikely if the previous overcoming point is properly applied.

Work stream 8-work plan

Activity / April / May / June
Develop concept note / 23
Endorse note at SIMAWG / 28
Form SIMAWG Taskforce to follow up with key agencies and experts / 28
Identify lead technical expert / 13
Contact leading agencies on population statistics for support / 7
Undertake NIF field visits / TBD
Finalize methodology draft 0 / 15
Conduct Workshop / 15
Review & endorse methodology / 29
Present methodology and figures / 29