Community, Authorities and Support for Vigilantism: Experimental Evidence

Online Appendix to:

I. THREATENING SIGNS BY VIGILANTE GROUPS

Figure A1. Sign posted in the Xochimilco neighborhood of Mexico City (Mexico) / Figure A2. Sign posted in the Los Hornos neighborhood of Santa Fe (Argentina)
“Organized Neighbors! Thief, if we catch you we will not take you to the authorities... we will lynch you!” Authors’ Translation
Source: Zócalo (2013)
Retrieved from: / “Organized Neighbors! Thief, if we catch you we will not take you to the police station, we will lynch you!” Authors’ Translation
Source: El Día Newspaper (2014)
Retrieved from:

II. TRENDS OF SUPPORT FOR VIGILANTISM AND ANTI-CRIME ORGANIZATION ACROSS THE AMERICAS

II.I Support for Vigilantism

Even when data on citizens’ specific support for vigilantism is scarce, The Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) has recovered data on citizens’ support for this type of behavior in the abstract. Unfortunately, it is difficult to evaluate the movement of this variable across time because the project has included a different composition of countries across years. Yet, it is possible to account for this variation by specifying a country and year fixed effects model

And then producing predicted averages adjusting for these differences. Figure A1 and Table A1 display these adjusted predicted averages.

Figure A3. Support for Vigilantism in the Americas
Source: The AmericasBarometer 2014. Vertical lines display 95% confidence intervals. Doted line displays the grand mean.
Table A1. Predicted Average Support for Vigilantism Across the Americas across time.
Year / Proportion / Standard Error
2004 / 3.594082 / .035116
2006 / 3.733013 / .0278329
2008 / 3.590712 / .0251263
2010 / 3.749661 / .0245142
2012 / 3.664611 / .0245437
2014 / 3.9056 / .0229931
Grand Proportion / 3.72279 / .010632

As Figure A1 shows, support for vigilantism seems to have reached an all-time high in 2014. The statistical significance of this result can be evaluated both visually and statistically. Visually, the reader can simply note that the confidence intervals around the 2014 estimate do not overlap the confidence intervals of any other year. Statistically, it is possible to test the significance of this finding by specifying the same model from which figure 2B was obtained while setting year 2014 as the omitted category. This strategy yields coefficients that can be interpreted as differences between the included years and the omitted category (2014). As Table A2 shows the average support for vigilantism in the LAC region was statistically significantly larger in 2014 than in each and every other year.

Table A2. Significance of the Increase of Support for Vigilantism
Support for Vigilantism
2014 vs 2004 / 0.312***
(0.0423)
2014 vs 2006 / 0.173***
(0.0365)
2014 vs 2008 / 0.315***
(0.0344)
2014 vs 2010 / 0.156***
(0.0335)
2014 vs 2012 / 0.241***
(0.0336)
Constant / 3.708***
(0.0553)
Country Fixed Effects / Included but not shown
Observations / 219,565
Standard errors in parentheses
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.

But even if citizens’ support for vigilantism in 2014 can be distinguished from other years, how substantively important is this moment? Since the variation of mass attitudes is only limited, to answer this question it is necessary to compare the 2014 change in support for vigilantism with change in other mass attitudes measured in a similar scale. Fortunately, since 2014 LAPOP has asked a number of questions in which citizens also have to display their attitudes in a 1 – 10 scale. This include, Left-Right Ideology, Support for Demonstrating, Support for Block Roads as a Demonstrating Strategy, Support for Participation in Violent Overthrow Groups, Support for Government Critic’s Right to Vote, Support for Government Critic’s Right to Demonstrate, Support for Government Critic’s Right to Run for Office, Support for Government Critic’s Right to Speak in Public, and Homosexuals' Right to Run for Public Office.

To evaluate the substantive importance in the 2014 rise in citizens’ Support for Vigilante Justice I first estimate the year level variation that typically occurs these variables. As can be seen in Table A3, the overall standard deviation across items with response options in the same scale is about 0.24.

Table A3. Dispersion of Mass Attitudes Across Years
Variable / Std. Dev.
Left-Right Ideology / 0.244125
Support for Demonstrating / 0.302128
Support for Blocking Roads / 0.201136
Support for Participation in Violent Opposition Groups / 0.118576
Support for Vigilantism / 0.130787
Government Critic’s Right to Vote / 0.242283
Government Critic’s Right to Demonstrate / 0.246469
Government Critic’s Right to Run for Office / 0.390821
Government Critic’s Right to Speak in Public / 0.392317
Homosexuals' Right to Run for Public Office / 0.213497
Average Standard Deviation / 0.248214

Using the Average Standard Deviation of mas- attitudes measured on a 1 to 10 scale as a yardstick, it is possible to conclude that this change is substantively important. That is, support for vigilante justice in the LAC region increased by about a 66% of a general standard deviation with respect to the highest year on record, by a 77% of a general standard deviation with respect to its overall mean, and by one full standard deviation with respect to the year 2012.

II.II Anti-Crime Organization

One of the ways in which support for vigilantism could be related to the emergence of the most extreme forms of extra-legal justice is through its effect on the prevalence of anti-crime organizations. If this is so, we should observe a trend in the prevalence of this types of organizations that mimics the trend in Figure 1. Just as it has gathered information about support for vigilantism across time, since 2008 the LAPOP has also gathered information about the proportion of citizens who participate in citizen-run anticrime organizations in the Americas. LAPOP asked citizens. In the last 12 months, out of fear of being a victim of crime, have you organized with your neighbors [Yes or No]? Just as I did with support for vigilantism, using the responses from this question I can estimate the following logistic regression model

Where represents a set of 25 dummy variables, one for each country and represents a set of 3 dummy variables, one for each year. From the results, it is then possible to estimate the historical trends of support for vigilantism for the average country of the region (i.e. I evaluate the expected average for each year while setting all countries to their means).

Figure A4. Estimated Percentage of Citizens Engaging in Anti-Crime Organization Across the Americas
Source: AmericasBarometer 2008-2014. Vertical lines display 95% design-based confidence intervals. The dotted line displays the grand mean across years (14.92%). Estimates come from a logistic country and year fixed-effects model. To calculate the estimated percentages within each year, each year was set to one and the rest of the countries were set to their means.
Table A4. Estimated Proportion of Citizens Organizing Against Crime in Latin America
Year / Proportion / Standard Error
2008 / 0.1158648 / 0.0060215
2010 / 0.1231487 / 0.0096757
2012 / 0.1505209 / 0.0032509
2014 / 0.1593652 / 0.0030158
Grand Proportion / .14924 / .0019674

The figure shows that in the region as a whole, the percentage of citizens engaging in collective anti-crime organization went from 11.58% in 2008 to 15.93 % in 2014. That is, it increased by 38.17% in the region.

Similarly, from 2004 to 2014 Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics has gathered information about the proportion of citizens who participate in citizen-run anticrime organizations. INEGI asked citizens whether in the previous year they had taken joint action with their neighbors to defend themselves from crime [Yes or No]. Using the responses from this question it is possible to estimate the following logistic regression model

Where represents a set of 31 dummy variables for each state and represents a set of 4 dummy variables for each year. To calculate the estimated percentages within each year, each year was set to one, the rest at zero, and all the states were set to their means.

Figure A5. Estimated Percentage of Citizens Engaging in Anti-Crime Organization in Mexico
Source: ENVIPE 2011-2015. Estimates show the estimated percent of citizens responding yes to the question “Have citizens in this household taken joint action with their neighbors to defend against crime?”. Vertical lines display 95% design-based confidence intervals. The dotted line displays the grand mean across years (10.74%). Estimates come from a logistic country and year fixed-effects model.
Table A5. Estimated Proportion of Citizens Organizing Against Crime in Mexico
Year / Proportion / Standard Error
2011 / .0796229 / .0020395
2012 / .086932 / .0020384
2013 / .1008322 / .0022903
2014 / .1361763 / .0023496
2015 / .1434671 / .003058
Grand Proportion / .1073809 / .0010163

The figure shows how, in Mexico, this percentage went from 7.96% in 2011 to 14.34% in 2015. That is, it increased by 80.15%.

Finally, going beyond yearly trends, using all LAPOP’s data I can estimate the individual level correlation between support for vigilantism and anti-crime organization. Table 2 shows a multivariate regression model that displays this correlation while controlling for sociodemographic variables.

Table A6. Determinants of Anti-Crime Organization
(1)
VARIABLES / Anti-Crime Organization
Support for Vigilantism / 0.0401***
(0.00362)
Women / -0.0935***
(0.0192)
Wealth / 0.0255***
(0.00852)
Education / 0.106***
(0.0163)
Age / 0.381***
(0.0282)
Age2 / -0.0461***
(0.00421)
National Capital / 0.203***
(0.0358)
Indigenous / 0.351***
(0.0480)
Constant / -2.637***
(0.138)
Country-Year Fixed Effects / 54
Observations / 83,631
Standard errors in parentheses
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

As Table A7 and Figure A4 there is a statistically significant association between support for vigilante justice and the prevalence of anti-crime organization.

Figure A6. Effect of Support for Vigilantism and Anti-crime organization

The AmericasBarometer asks citizens whether the police fought against crime or was involved in crime. From this information it is possible to estimate the proportion of Mexicans within each sub-region that thought that the police was involved in crime.

Table A7. Estimated Proportion of Citizens Thinking that “Police are involved in crime”
Region / Proportion / Standard Error
North / .5303514 / .0518075
Center-West / .5014493 / .0403999
Center / .6211813 / .038699
South / .504918 / .0478477
Grand Mean / .421013 / .0043466
Source: 2012 AmericasBarometer, Internal Merge v50

III. Treatments

III.I. Key Manipulations

Distrust in the Police
LOW / HIGH
(Nonetheless) (For their part), the police (rarely monitors the area) (has intensified the monitoring of the area, and the chief of the police) (and has done little) (has said publically that they will show zero tolerance towards any criminal group) or (nothing to solve the problem and, in general, they seem to have little interest in maintaining the control over) (any) trespassers of the public order in the area....
Given the (lack of) great unity existent in the community and the (increase in) (little) presence. What do you think the people affected by the problem should do? / (Nonetheless) (For their part), the police (rarely monitors the area) (has intensified the monitoring of the area), and (the chief of the police) (and has done little) (has said publically that they will show zero tolerance towards any criminal group) or (nothing to solve the problem. In general, they seem to have little interest in maintaining the control over) (any) trespassers of the public order in the area....
Given the (lack of) great unity existent in the community and the (increase in) (little) presence. What do you think the people affected by the problem should do?
Trust in the Community
LOW / HIGH
(In this context) (At the same time), some people who worry about the situation, have organized secret community meetings to face the problem. (However), things are (not) going (fairly) well (at all) due to the fact that these meetings have encountered (great) (little) resonance within the community and have exposed the great (division) (unity) existing in the town. (Only a handful of people) (Hundreds of neighbors) have come to the meetings and most of the assistants are (not) very enthusiastic about participating.
....
Given the (lack of) great unity existent in the community and the (increase in) (little) presence. What do you think the people affected by the problem should do? / (In this context) (At the same time), some people who worry about the situation, have organized secret community meetings to face the problem. (However), Things are (not) going (fairly) well (at all) due to the fact that these meetings have encountered (great) (little) resonance within the community and have exposed the great (division) (unity) existing in the town. (Only a handful of people) (Hundreds of neighbors) have come to the meetings and most of the assistants are (not) very enthusiastic about participating.
....
Given the (lack of) great unity existent in the community and the (increase in) (little) presence. What do you think the people affected by the problem should do?

III.II. Actual Treatments (Spanish)

High Community, Low Distrust in The Police Treatment

Además de afectar directamente a la población, las recientes lluvias en el sur del país han expuesto problemas inesperados en muchas de las comunidades de la región. Uno de estos problemas se relaciona con la llegada de víveres a comunidades de Guerrero en donde el crimen organizado se encuentra activo.

La población de Huamuxtitlán (Guerrero), por ejemplo, es una de las comunidades en las que grupos asociados al crimen organizado han logrado apoderarse de una buena parte de los víveres que han llegado a la comunidad desde el centro del país.

Las autoridades han manifestado que estos grupos no deben ser confrontados directamente o tomados a la ligera. No solo porque tomar la justicia por propia mano se encuentra fuera de la ley, sino porque muchos de estos grupos se encuentran bien armados y podrían llegar a tomar represalias contra la población civil.

Por su parte, la policía ha intensificado su vigilancia en esa población, y el jefe de zona ha señalado que mostrarán cero tolerancia con cualquier grupo criminal o violación al orden público en el área.

Al mismo tiempo, algunas personas preocupadas por el problema han convocado a reuniones comunitarias en secreto para enfrentar el problema. Las cosas van bastante bien, ya que estas reuniones han encontrado gran resonancia dentro de la comunidad, y han puesto de manifiesto la gran unidad que existe en la población. Cientos de vecinos ya han asistido a las juntas y participan en ellas activamente.

La gente preocupada por el problema en la comunidad se encuentra en un dilema. Por un lado, la salud de sus hijos y de su familia empeora día a día. Por el otro, están conscientes del peligro que representa el crimen organizado y la posibilidad de ser castigados por la ley.

Dada la gran unidad que existe en la comunidad y el aumento en la presencia de las autoridades, ¿qué cree que debería hacer la gente afectada por el problema?

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Average reading time in minutes: 1.82 (0.05)

High Community, High Distrust in The Police Treatment (Spanish)

Específicamente, el problema reside en que grupos criminales se han dado cuenta del gran valor económico que representan las toneladas de alimentos, agua y otras provisiones que han llegado a las comunidades, y han intentado hacerse del control de los mismos.
La población de Huamuxtitlán (Guerrero), por ejemplo, es una de las comunidades en las que grupos asociados al crimen organizado han logrado apoderarse de una buena parte de los víveres que han llegado a la comunidad desde el centro del país.

Sin embargo, la policía vigila muy poco la zona, y ha hecho poco o nada para solucionar el problema, y en general parece tener muy poco interés en mantener el control sobre el orden público.
Al mismo tiempo, algunas personas preocupadas por el problema han convocado a reuniones comunitarias en secreto para enfrentar el problema. Las cosas van bastante bien, ya que estas reuniones han encontrado gran resonancia dentro de la comunidad, y han puesto de manifiesto la gran unidad que existe en la población. Cientos de vecinos ya han asistido a las juntas y participan en ellas activamente.

Dada la gran unidad que existe en la comunidad y la poca presencia de las autoridades, ¿qué cree que debería hacer la gente afectada por el problema?

(361 words)

Average reading time in minutes: 1.96 (0.07)

Low Community, Low Distrust in The Police Treatment (Spanish)

En este contexto, algunas personas preocupadas por el problema han convocado a reuniones comunitarias en secreto para enfrentar el problema. Sin embargo, las cosas no van nada bien, ya que estas reuniones han encontrado poca resonancia dentro de la comunidad, y han puesto de manifiesto la gran división que existe en la población. Solo un puñado de personas ha asistido a las juntas vecinales y no participan muy activamente.