AWAC 24 April ’07
Col. Steven Wright, PhD, Dean of Students, AWC, moderator
Dr. David Sorenson, Muslim World, former Assoc. Dean of AWC.
Dr. Steve Burgess, Africa West (MaliSenegal), part of team developing Africa Command.
Dr. Amit Gupta, South Asia.
Students attending: Celeste Paulson, Todd L. Adams, & John D. Martin.
DIMC matrix by countries: Diplomatic & political | Informational | Military | Economic | Cultural
Sorenson
Turkey as secular democracy, European orientatin
Saudi constitutional monarchy, sunni islam birthplace
Egypt has one foot in either camp – influenced by Saudi islam but invaded by Ottomans. High population growth rate.
Ataturk had girlfriends and drank himself to death – a different kind of muslim. Now moderate islamist government. Leader talks of dem as streetcar, you take to where else. EU application.
Dir’iyah, Saudi, birthplace of radical sunni islam, several centuries ago, ruined by Turks. Defender of Wahabbism, not necessarily a violent form of radical islam.
Al-Azhar U, Cairo, source of criticism of radical islam, teachers have condemned AQ and suicide bombers who kill innocents. Not much heard in West.
Burgess (recent dissertation on NATO)
Senegal and Mali both moderate Islamic democracies, stable.
Africa command a major shift post cold war, away from European command’s southern area and CentCom’s western area. Egypt will stay with CentCom.
Pentagon wants it located in Africa, but where is an issue – 3x size of US. Mali, Ethiopia or S. Af? Poss leave it in Europe.
North & West Africa as well as e. coast are muslim, with muslim minority on fringe.
Somalia has blown up again.
Kenya and Tanzania are conerns also, post emvbassy bombings. Ethipia center of African union, troops active in horn of Africa. US has combined force there for wininign hearts & minds in war on terror.
Darfur issue, W. Sudan. Gov of Sudan has scorched earth policy, Sec. Powell used term “genocide”. Af Union not terribly effective there, US has urged UN force to end the violence.
15% of US oil imports from Niger delta, yet kidnappings in delta. Imp. For naval component of Africa command.
Nigerian elections, PDP won but massive fraud. Risk of destruction of nation state – did happen in Biafran war 1967. Would affect much of Africa.
Gupta
India has 9% growth rate, Bangalore, outsourcing
Source of conflict: Godzilla factor
Water cooperation necessary
Infrastructure cooperatin necessary
Trade Routes (much smuggling)
Developmental imperative
Bangla Desh a large country by Euro stds but small in South Asia.
50 years of tension and conflict – but now leadership on both sides
NE India, Charrapunji has 450” rain, 2d highest in world. But now environmental issue, because runoff to south India is too fast. Water shortages emerging through population growth.
Pakistan now 165M and consumes water rapidly.
Transport roads and rail now being built up for trade but across China, not much north-south through India and Pakistan.
Oil & gas pipelines needed and must go through Pakistan to reach India.
Japanese initiative for an axis of democracies: Japan, Australia US and India.
Democratic stakeholder sin Asian security
Keeping powder dry and subtly making case for China as stakeholder.
Question Time (comments from all panel):
Muslim population republsed by muslim radical violence against other muslims.
Numerous denunctions by muslim and political leaders – including Hizballah leader on 9/11 attacks.
Senegal and Mali show dem is possible with free expression under islam.
Muslim world is not the same as middle east. Very different traditions outside middle east.
Cultures borrow from each other, eg Indonesian (190M muslims) leader with Sanskrit name.
Saudi is a small muslim country.
Pakistan? Started as moderate muslim country under Muhammad Jinna, but politicians now
Benazir’s husband known as Mr. 10 %. Militant muslims provided first relief and assistance. Most countries have an army, but in Paki the army owns the country (businesses like cement factories). Most viable political force is militant islam.
Musharraf viewed like (FDR on Darlan, an SOB but our SOB.)
Paki wil not get democratic or rights oriented – but is a buffer against terrorism for Indians. Nobody wants Paki to break up (neighbors
Paki could easily have been part of axis of evil, but post 9/11 brought back from brink. Musharraf may have outlived usefulness, though.
Saudi role
Has brokered peace deals eg in Lebanon peace deal of 1980s, skilful diplomats.
Now attempting to broker Israeli Palestinian peace.
Need to build bridges because focal point is Iraq and Saudi & iran do not want a piece of dangerously unstable Iraq. Nobody to negotiate with in Iraq, Maliki is really PM of Baghdad alone. Militas run countryside until war exhausts itself. Bleak diplomataic prospects.
Kurdish north (not Kurdistan, because Turkey considers them only mountain Turks). Smuggling successfully from Turkey despite sanctions and Saddam let them trade for his own benefit.
Housing crisis: arabs were moved into Kurdish area by Saddam, potential conflict over return of housing.
Nigeria.
Muslim estremist influence in north, sharia adopted and some use Taliban name in NE Nigeria, but crushed by military.
US policy for Iraq – econ reconstruction needed in plan. Saddam broke econ system except for a small clique, and kept state together by violence and bribes. Country fractured into 150 tribes. Econ reconstruction essential to rebuilding and some areas are heavily one ethnic, not violent. Two great rivers, can become agriculral powerhouse, breadbasket. Petrochemicals possible.
Have tried to bring democracy first. Economy should have first, perhaps under three dictators from ethnic groups. Should not push democratization, have PM beholden to Sadr, and have no idea who will be next leader.
AWC students?
9/11 made AWC students more serious about the world. Crown & jewel of AWC experience.
They learn the varieties of opinion around world.
AWC students well prepared compared to other services.
Oil money in Iraq?
Wish we knew. Some has gone into training police, but Iraqis reject US oversight of unaccounted for money.
Politicians today not just corrupt but inexperienced because were out of power under Saddam.
90% of Iraqi gov revenue from oil, so vulnerable to price fluctuations and attacks on refineries.