Department of Management

Class of BUS 564Advanced Decision MakingMake-up Exam

1-Microcomp is a U.S.-based manufacturer of personal computers. It is planning to build a new manufacturing and distribution facility in either South Korea, China, Taiwan, the Philippines, or Mexico. It will take approximately 5 years to build the necessary infrastructure (roads, etc.), construct the new facility, and put it into operation. The eventual cost of the facility will differ between countries and will even vary within countries depending on the financial, labor, and political climate, including monetary exchange rates. The company has estimated the facility cost (in $1,000,000s) in each country under three different future economic and political climates, as follows:

Economic/Political Climate
Country / Decline / Same / Improve
South Korea / 21.7 / 19.1 / 15.2
China / 19.0 / 18.5 / 17.6
Taiwan / 19.2 / 17.1 / 14.9
Philippines / 22.5 / 16.8 / 13.8
Mexico / 25.0 / 21.2 / 12.5

Determine the best decision, using the following decision criteria.

  1. Maximin
  2. Minimax regret
  3. Hurwicz (a= .4)
  4. Equal likelihood

2-The Valley Wine Company purchases grapes from one of two nearby growers each season to produce a particular red wine. It purchases enough grapes to produce 3,000 bottles of the wine. Each grower supplies a certain portion of poor-quality grapes, resulting in a percentage of bottles being used as fillers for cheaper table wines, according to the following probability distribution:

Profit
Defective (%) / Grower A / Grower B
2 / $44,000 / $42,000
4 / 40,000 / 41,000
6 / 36,000 / 38,000
8 / 32,000 / 35,000
10 / 28,000 / 33,000
Probability of Percentage Defective
Defective (%) / Grower A / Grower B
2 / 0.20 / 0.30
4 / 0.30 / 0.25
6 / 0.25 / 0.20
8 / 0.20 / 0.15
10 / 0.05 / 0.10

The two growers charge different prices for their grapes and, because of differences in taste, the company charges different prices for its wine, depending on which grapes it uses. Following is the annual profit from the wine produced from each grower's grapes for each percentage defective:

Use decision tree analysis to determine from which grower the company should purchase grapes.

3-The Loebuck Grocery must decide how many cases of milk to stock each week to meet demand. The probability distribution of demand during a week is shown in the following table:

Demand (cases) / Probability
15 / .20
16 / .25
17 / .40
18 / .15
1.00

Each case costs the grocer $ 8 and sells for $12. Unsold cases are sold to a local farmer (who mixes the milk with feed for livestock) for $5 per case. If there is a shortage, the grocer considers the cost of customer ill will and lost profit to be $3 per case. The grocer must decide how many cases of milk to order each week.

  1. Construct the payoff table for this decision situation.
  2. Compute the expected value of each alternative amount of milk that could be stocked and select the best decision.
  3. Construct the opportunity loss table and determine the best decision.
  4. Compute the expected value of perfect information.

4-Carol Latta is visiting hotels in Los Angeles to decide where to hold a convention for a national organization of college business school teachers she represents. There are three hotels from which to choosethe Cheraton, the Milton, and the Harriott. The criteria she is to use to make her selection are ambiance, location (based on safety and walking distance to attractions and restaurants), and cost to the organization. Following are the pairwise comparisons she has developed that indicate her preference for each hotel for each criterion and her pairwise comparisons for the criteria:

Ambiance
Hotel / Cheraton / Milton / Harriott
Cheraton / 1 / 2 / 1/5
Milton / 1/2 / 1 / 3
Harriott / 5 / 1/3 / 1
Location
Hotel / Cheraton / Milton / Harriott
Cheraton / 1 / 5 / 1/3
Milton / 1/5 / 1 / 1/4
Harriott / 3 / 4 / 1
Cost
Hotel / Cheraton / Milton / Harriott
Cheraton / 1 / 2 / 1/5
Milton / 1/2 / 1 / 3
Harriott / 5 / 1/3 / 1
Criterion / Ambiance / Location / Cost
Ambiance / 1 / 1/2 / 4
Location / 2 / 1 / 3
Cost / 1/4 / 1/3 / 1

Develop an overall ranking of the three hotels, using AHP, to help Carol Latta decide where to hold the meeting.(onlytest ofconsistency forcost.)

CI = CR = RI(3)=0,58

Good Luck….