Chapter 2: Current and Anticipated Challenges

College of the Sequoias Master Plan 2015-2025

CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED CHALLENGES

The purposes of the first two chapters of this master plan are to identify the District’s benefits and successes as well as to analyze the District’s effectiveness in meeting its mission.

The COS mission is:

College of the Sequoias is a comprehensive community college focused on student learning that leads to productive work, lifelong learning and community involvement.

College of the Sequoias affirms that our mission is to help our diverse student population achieve its transfer and/or occupational objectives and to advance the economic growth and global competitiveness of business and industry within our region.

College of the Sequoias is committed to supporting students' mastery of basic skills and to providing programs and services that foster student success.

Using this mission statement as the benchmark, these chapters provide evidence of some of the District’s successes and benefits.

The District’s geographic region is projected to increase in population and that projection includes sustained growth in residents of college-going ages. (Data Set 1. and Data Set 2.)

Employment growth is projected for the District’s geographic region. (Data Set 7., Data Set 8., and Data Set 9.)

District students are younger than the statewide student population, with 66% of the District’s students age 24 old or younger at all three District sites, compared to 55% of students in that age cohort statewide. (Data Set 18. and Data Set 19.)

COS has an impressive rate of student retention, ranging from 88% to 92% in a five-year summary. These retention rates are consistently higher than the statewide averages for the same semesters. (Data Set 30.)

The rates at which COS students earn passing grades are consistent across a five-year summary and are comparable to the statewide average for the same semesters. (Data Set 31.)

The successful course completion rates for COS college-age students (age 20 - 24) increased from 65% in fall 2009 to 68% in fall 2013. (Data Set 33.)

The successful course completion rates for COS full-time students increased from 76% in fall 2009 to 80% in fall 2013. (Data Set 34.)

In order to identify its current and anticipated challenges, the District analyzed the information in these two chapters by:

Comparing its current status to its mission (internal scans) in order to identify current challenges and

Studying projected demographics, legislative, and economic changes (external scans) in order to anticipate the challenges that the District will be called upon to address in the coming decade.

Based on this analysis, the District identified the following current and anticipated challenges.

Challenge #1: To fulfill its mission, COS must accommodate the anticipated increases in student demand.

Student demand is projected to increase in the next ten years. Based on data in the previous chapters, the District projects that credit enrollment will grow at the rate of x% per year each year in the coming decade. This projection of the overall college growth projection is based on the following demographic projections and recent history.

Student demand is projected to increase because the populations in the communities served by the District are projected to increase. Between 2015 and 2025 Kings County is projected to increase 22% and Tulare County is projected to increase 21%. (Data Set 1.)

However, the impact of these projected increases in total population are offset to some extent by the low college-going rates of local high school graduates. Although the population increases are projected to be evenly distributed across the age cohorts, with the college-age population on both counties projected to remain consistent, only x% of high school students are college-eligible and/or interested in college. (Data Set 2. and Data Set x.)

Student demand is projected to increase because the Districtwas required by reductions in state funding in recent years to limit student access to higher education. As a result, thenumber of students served by District decreased 21% between fall 2009 and fall 2013. (Date Set 11.) In alignment with the reduction in student headcount, the number of enrollments decreased 29% between fall 2009 and fall 2013. (Data Set 13.) The District has begun to be able to address these unmet student needs as evidenced by the increase in FTES earned in 2013/14. (Data Set to be developed on FTES)

Student demand is projected to increase because the District openedtwo facilities that are geographically separated from COS-Visalia Campus. This action was taken in order to expand student access to the District’s programs and services. Each of the two new sites, COS-Hanford Educational Center that opened in fall 2010 and COS-Tulare College Center that opened in spring fall 2013, offer unique career technical education programs as well as general education courses. These additions promise to contribute to addressing student needs, contingent on the District’s ability to increase programs and staffing for these sites, (Chapter 1)

Student demand is projected to increase because jobs requiring postsecondary education are projected to increase. Adults with the lowest educational attainment have the highest rates of unemployment. (Data Set 10.) This trend is likely to continue if economists are correct in projecting that the education level required for employment will increase in the next decade. One such forecast from the Lumina Foundation project that if the current rate of degree completion continues, 45% of California’s working adults will have earned a college degree by 2025, far short of the 61% that is projected to be needed for the workforce. (Chapter 1)

Challenge #2: To fulfill its mission, COS must improve the rate at which its students complete degrees, certificates, and transfer objectives.

Students’ completion of degrees, certificates and transfer requirements as a strategy to meet workforce needs is a focus of national, state and local attention. At the national level, economists project that the majority of tomorrow’s jobs will require postsecondary education. The projection for California is that by 2020, 61% of the jobs will require postsecondary education: 32% will require some college, a career technical certificate, or an associate degree; 23% will require a bachelor’s degree; and 12% will require a master’s degree. To meet this need and to offset the decline in the educational attainment of US citizens, the American Graduation Initiative set a target for each community college to triple the number of degrees and certificates awarded by 2020. (Chapter 1)

On the Student Success Scorecard the metric of completion rate is calculated as the percentage of degree and/or transfer-seeking students tracked for six years through 2011-12 who completed a degree, certificate or transfer related outcomes. These Student Success Scorecard data indicate that completion rates for COS students over the past five years have been consistently below students’ completion rates statewide. (Data Set 25.)

Although below students’ completion rates statewide, in recent years, the number of degrees awarded by COS increased. Between 2008/09 and 2012/13 COS awarded 34% more associate degrees during the same period that the overall student headcount declined 21%. (Data Set 11. and Data Set 35.) Although the increase in the number of associate degrees awarded by COS is impressive, this completion rate is unlikely to meet current and projected workforce needs and is below the statewide rates for completion of degrees, certificates, and transfer requirements. (Chapter 1 and Data Set 25.)

In order to meet this challenge of increasing the rate of students’ completion of degrees and certificates, COS will need to dedicate attention to the viability of its career technical education programs as well as to multiple benchmarks of students’ matriculation, highlighted by the following specific issues.

Career Technical Education Programs

In order to increase students’ successful completion of degrees, certificates and transfer requirements, the District must ensure that the links between program completion and employment arevisible and authentic for both employers and students.

The District expanded students’ access to higher education opportunities by building facilities that are geographically separated and that feature unique career technical educational programs. Increased enrollment at each location is evidence of students’ positive responses to these opportunities. (Chapter 1 and Data Set 18.)

This expansion of access to higher education is well timed because employment growth is projected in a range of industry sectors in the next decade. Although this is excellent news for this region because the local unemployment rate of approximately 15% in March 2014 in both counties is higher than state and national rates, many of the new jobs require little to no formal education. (Chapter 1, Data Set 7., Data Set 9.)

Since higher levels of educational attainment are predictive of higher greater income and lower unemployment, in order to fulfill its mission, the District is committed its role in contributing to the economic growth of the region by training students to become skilled employees. (Chapter 1 and Data Set 10.)

Students’ Readiness for College

The low level of students’ preparedness for college-level coursework may be a factor in the District’s lower completion rates. Of the COS students who voluntarily completed course placement tests in 2012/13, 58% were not prepared for college-level coursework in English and 85% were not prepared for college-level coursework in mathematics. (Data Set 24.) Using the Student Success Scorecard data, the proportions of COS students who are not prepared for college-level courses have been slightly but consistently above the proportions of unprepared students statewide, with 78% versus 73%, 80% versus 73%, and 75% versus 73%. Although prepared students have highercompletion rates than unprepared students, COS students’ completion rates for both prepared and unprepared students are slightly lower than the completion rates for students statewide. (Data Set 27.)

Students’ Transition from Basic Skills to College-level Coursework

The Student Success Scorecard data on basic skills reinforces the idea that students’ level of preparedness for college-level coursework may be a factor in the District’s lower completion rates. These data indicate the percentage of credit students tracked for six years through 2011-12 who started below transfer level in English or mathematics and completed a college-level course in the same discipline. On this metric, COS students are much less likely than students statewide to begin below transfer level in English or mathematics and complete a college-level course in the same discipline within six years. In English, the statewide rates are 37% to 38% compared to rates of 21% to 27% for COS students. In mathematics, the statewide rates are 23% to 26% compared to rates of 16% to 17% for COS students. (Data Set 28.)

Students’ Transition from Some College Credit to Degree/Certificate Completion

The Student Success Scorecard data on students who continue their education after achieving 30 units indicates another area of concern for COS.

Although a significant proportion of both prepared and unprepared COS students complete 30 units, the challenge for COS is to improve the rate at which students move from reaching the 30-unit benchmark to the completion of degrees, certificates, and/or transfer requirements. For example, in the cohort of students who entered the District in 2006/07, 63% had completed 30 units at the end of six years but only 38% completed a degree, certificate or transfer related outcomes. (Data Set 27.)

Similar patterns are found in the data on persistence. In the Student Success Scorecard persistence is defined as the percentage of degree and/or transfer-seeking students tracked for six years through 2011-12 who enrolled in the first three consecutive terms. Like the 30-unit benchmark, this metric is considered a momentum point in students’ matriculation because research shows that students with sustained enrollment are more likely to succeed. COS students’ persistence was higher than the statewide rates for prepared students who entered in 2002/03 and 2004/05 but lower than the statewide rates for prepared students who entered in 2006/07. The persistence rates of COS unprepared students have been comparable to the statewide persistence rates for unprepared students across the same time periods.(Data Set 27.)

Taken together, these two measures indicate that COS students are likely to enroll inthree or four consecutive semesters and accumulate 30 units, but then fail to sufficiently pursueto their education to complete degree and transfer requirements.

Students’ Number of Units per Semester

In fall 2013 approximately 65% of COSstudents took fewer than 12 units per semester. (Data Set 16.) The good news is that this proportion of full-time to part-time students at COS is slightly higher than the statewide proportions, in which 69% were part-time in fall 2013. The bad news is that the majority of COS students are part-time and part-time studentshave lower successful course completion rates than full-time students, 57% compared to 80% in fall 2013. (Data Set 16. and Data Set 34.)

Students’ Successful Completion of Distance Education Courses

Although there has been an improvement in students’ successful course completion rates in COS online courses, increasing from 44% in fall 2009 to 54% in fall 2013, only about half of COS students successfully complete the distance education courses in which they enrolled.(Data Set 31.)

Challenge #3: To fulfill its mission, COS must strategically tailor its academic programs and student services to the unique demographics of its communities.

In order to provide meaningful support to its students, the District must tailor both academic programs and student services to meet the unique demographic variables that characterize its students and communities. These multiple and interacting demographic variables are summarized below.

Forty to fifty percent of the residents in Tulare and Kings Counties over the age of five speak a language other than English at home. (Data Set 4.)

The level of educational attainment for adult residents within the District’s geographic boundaries is low compared to statewide levels. Of the adult residents in Tulare County and Kings County, 32% and 29% respectively have not graduated from high school compared to 19% statewide. The proportions of adults who have some college and an associate degree in these two counties are comparable to the statewide statistics, but the proportions of adult residents who have earned a bachelor’s degree or higher (13% in Tulare County and 12% in Kings County) is significantly below the statewide rate of 31% for this level of educational attainment. (Data Set 5.)

Consequently, close to 70% of first-time students who enroll in the District are also the first in their families to attend college. This is significantly higher than the 2008 estimate from the US Department of Education that approximately 1/3 of the nation’s undergraduates were first generation college students. (Data Set 23.)

Consistent with the link between levels of educational attainment and employment, the unemployment rate in the District’s communities of 15% as of March 2014 is higher than state and national rates. (Chapter 1 and Data Set 10.)

The income for many residents within the District’s geographic boundaries is below poverty level. Using the 2013 federal poverty level of an annual income $23,550 for a family of 4, both Tulare and Kings Counties have a greater proportion of residents (28% and 25% respectively) living at or below poverty level compared to the statewide rate of 22%. (Data Set 6.)

Combined, these demographic variables portray a complex student profile in which as many as half of COS students have few role models who achieved high levels of educational attainment combined with living in households with unemployment and poverty. When parents have little/nopostsecondary education, they often cannot serve as effective role models to guide their children’s academic success and they may not fully understand the benefits and language of postsecondary education. A corresponding factor is that these COS students live in households with high unemployment rates and poverty, which may necessitate them dedicating time and energy to their families through part-time employment and/or increased household responsibilities. These factors combine and interact, serving as significant barriers to students’ pursuit of their educational goals, which thereby limits students’ abilities to break the cycle of under-education and poverty. (Data Set5., Data Set 6., 10.)

Economic concerns within the family and the possible necessity to work part-time may contribute to the high portion of COS students who enroll in fewer than 12 units per semester. In fall 2013, 65% of COS students were enrolled in 11.9 or fewer units. This is a concern for student success in two ways: (1) fewer units per semester are linked to lower likelihood of completing degrees, certificates and transfer requirements and (2) the number of units per semester is correlated with students’ successful course completion rates. Overall part-time students have lower successful course completion rates than full-time students, 57% compared to 80% in fall 2013. (Data Set 16. and Data Set 34.)

The next step is for the District to develop District Goals that describe how it intends to address the identified current and anticipated challenges.

District Goals 2015- 2025

The College of the Sequoias Community College District will increase student enrollment.

The College of the Sequoias Community College District will improve the rate at which its students complete degrees, certificates, and transfer objectives.

The College of the Sequoias Community College District will strategically tailor and implement academic programs and student services that match the needs of its unique student population.