Building a Climate for 2015 That Mitigates the MDG Aid Gap

Building a climate for 2015 that mitigates the MDG aid gap

How much change is attributable the MDGs? What works? What doesn’t? What is cause, what effect?

We know why. Many of the richest abandoned their promises.

1.With hindsight, many MDG indicators are of limited use for analysis of cause and effect. Disaggregation of subgroups is crucial for cause & effect and realignment of strategies.

2.A central repository for key MDG data, should conform to a common timescale and eRecord standards.

3.Available data must be posted promptly. Important measures of nutrition, like stunting, is crucial indicator of nutritional status over 5 or more years of life. Many stunting data-series end in 2005, allowing no measure of MDG impact. The reference-date of 1990 means that only the remaining 5 years (of 25) will reflect MDG efforts.

4.Excessively global goals

5.Over-aggregated indicators such as MDG1 allows improvements in China to overshadow deterioration in other countries and even sub-populations within China

6.

7..

8.Measuring harm instead of benefits (MGD1 & MDG4@@) can mask progress. Thus, while the number of hungry has decreased in the face of population growth, it’s hides a spectacular increase in number of people fed. Aggregated data should be susceptible to plotting on scatter plots and frequency distribution across several variables to allow inferences re cause and effect and in turn provide leverage for intervention. Selected indicators need to be disaggregated to serve long-term planning, short-term field adjustments, and research into cause and effect. Some data best plotted on logarithmic scales.

9.Pending better data beyond 2015, progress is being made on techniques to disaggregate data that are currently misleading. While wealth flows to the rich, the mean or median may totally fail to reflect what is happening to those in the poverty trap. Sub-groups, like aboriginals, who are not benefiting and need special attention may be marginalized in the data and decisions that flow from it. Figure 2.

Progress towards the MDGsProgress towards the eight Millennium Development Goals is measured through 21 targets and 60 official indicators.

1 This report presents an accounting to date of how far the world has come in meeting the goals using data available as of June 2011.

2Most of the MDG targets have a deadline of 2015, using 1990 as the baseline against which progress is gauged. Country data are aggregated at the subregional and regional levels to show overall advances over time. Although the aggregate figures are a convenient way to track progress, the situation of individual countries within a given region may vary significantly from regional averages. Data for individual countries, along with the composition of all regions and subregions, are available at

The basis for this analysis

Regional and subregional figures presented in this report are compiled by members of the United Nations Inter-Agency and Expert Group on MDG Indicators (IAEG). In general,the figures are weighted averages of country data, usingthe population of reference as a weight. For each indicator,individual agencies were designated as official providers ofdata and as leaders in developing methodologies for datacollection and analysis (see inside front cover for a list ofcontributing organizations).

Data are typically drawn from official statistics provided bygovernments to the international agencies responsible for theindicator. To fill data gaps, data for many of the indicators aresupplemented by or derived exclusively from data collectedthrough surveys sponsored and carried out by internationalagencies. These include many of the health indicators, whichare compiled, for the most part, from Multiple Indicator ClusterSurveys (MICS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS).

In some cases, countries may have more recent data thathave not yet become available to the relevant specializedagency. In other cases, countries do not produce the datarequired to compile the indicator, and the responsibleinternational agencies estimate the missing values. Evenwhen national data are available, adjustments are oftenneeded to ensure international comparability. Data frominternational sources, therefore, often differ from thoseavailable within countries.

The United Nations Statistics Division maintains the officialwebsite of the IAEG and its database ( Inan effort to improve transparency, the country data series inthe database are given colour codes to indicate whether thefigures are estimated or provided by national agencies; they

1The complete list of goals, targets and indicators is available at

2Given the time lag between collecting data and analysing them,few indicators can be compiled for the current year. Most of themare based on data from earlier years—generally up to 2009 or2010.

are also accompanied by metadata with a detailed descriptionof how the indicators are produced and the methodologiesused for regional aggregations.

Reconciling national and international data

Reliable, timely and internationally comparable data on theMDG indicators are crucial for holding the internationalcommunity to account. They are also important inencouraging public support and funding for development,allocating aid effectively, and comparing progress amongregions and across countries.

Discrepancies among sources and gaps in national data haveraised concerns in the statistical community and troubledcountry data producers who find themselves dealing withdifferent figures for the same indicator.

A number of initiatives have been launched to reconcilenational and international monitoring and to resolvedifferences in methods and definitions used by variousagencies within countries and in international agencies.The IAEG has promoted a dialogue between nationaland international agencies to improve the coherence ofnational and international data and to ensure the qualityand transparency of methodologies and data produced. TheIAEG has also provided training to national statistics expertsin more than 60 countries. As a result, data productionin countries is increasingly aligned with internationallyagreed-upon recommendations and standards. Moreover,international agencies have developed a better understandingof countries’ data availability and of how to work with nationalexperts to produce and estimate indicators.

Improving monitoring systems

Improved data and monitoring tools are crucial for devisingappropriate policies and interventions needed to achievethe MDGs. Although some progress is being made, reliablestatistics for monitoring development remain inadequatein many poor countries, and the challenge of buildingin-country capacity to produce better policy-relevant datais enormous. Building such capacity demands increasedand well-coordinated financial and technical support fromdevelopment partners. It also requires country ownership andgovernment commitment to spur the institutional changesneeded to ensure the sustainability of capacity-buildingefforts.

As a results of recent efforts, more data are now availablein the international series for the assessment of trends forall MDGs. In 2010, 119 countries had data for at least twopoints in time for 16 to 22 indicators; in contrast, only fourcountries had this data coverage in 2003. These advancesare the result of increased national capacity to venture intonew data collection initiatives as well as to increase thefrequency of data collection. For instance, the number ofcountries with two or more data points on contraceptiveprevalence increased from 50 in the period 1986-1994 to103 in 2010. At the same time, the number of countries withno data on this indicator decreased from 106 to 34.

Smoke, snake oil, and mirrors on the way to the MDGs

World Distribution of Wealth and Population in the Year 2000

How much is wasted Phantom aid

Misleading info

Canada says re ODA, US says re ODA

The truth!

Naysayers say world is getting richer (trickle down)

But within countries? Gap between rich and poor is increasing

Disparities in income distribution – not random effects – if any game of chance

Averages mean nothing

But it doesn’t mean the poor are getting poorer

Population growth dilutes the effects of development

But it doesn’t mean the number of hungry are increasing, nor that the number fed are not increasing rapidly

Aid isn’t helping, but MDGs are producing kinks in the trajectory!!??

What kinds of aid work?

How much goes to corrupt dictators?

IMF definition of ODA

Flows of official financing administered with the promotion of the economic development and welfare of developing countries as the main objective,

and which are concessional in character with a grant element of at least 25 percent (using a fixed 10 percent rate of discount).

By convention, ODA flows comprise contributions of donor government agencies, at all levels, to developing countries (“bilateral ODA”) and to multilateral institutions.

ODA receipts comprise disbursements by bilateral donors and multilateral institutions. Lending by export credit agencies—with the pure purpose of export promotion—is excluded.

Guidelines:

Capture attention

Without opinions - just indisputable data & for opinions quote spokespersons for the poor

False optimism, false pessimism, signs that point the wrong way

Signposts deliberately intended to mislead

Can we make good decisions, without good data?sometimes

Bad data -> bad decisions, errors and misconceptions, deliberately misleading

“We believe most readily what we most hope and what we most fear”:François de La Rochefoucauld

Also focus on the catastrophic. Thus see disasters in Africa as the lot of poor of the planet. In fact African poor are very much a minority %%. We also overestimate our weight in the world. EU contributions to ODA (increasing) dwarf those of NAm (dwindling) that may help us both sleep better at night Optimisticabout the long term future. But without diminishing our frustration, impatience, and (only slightly muted) righteous and appropriate indignation!

Temporal myopia

We in NAm tend to underplay historic trends.

Spatial myopia

Some of the measures encourage over-optimism - like decreasing by 50% (which could be achieved without any absolute change), and from 1990 numbers, which again makes it easier to achieve than 2000 numbers.

Also the ways in which $1.25 AVERAGE ppp can mislead us when even the median is misleading. I can contrast the FAO and UNICEF that show much better indicators of GH than the World Bank data, as we move toward an increasingly biphasic distribution across populations. Also the belief that Africa is the best exemplar of the needs or progress of the world. Also how China's success masks the lack of success worldwide. I can show how the data show that China met MDG1 in less than 5 years, and why this is misleading. Also I can see some nice slides to show that the current obsessions represent extremes in the ongoing chaos of world. A world that will always make mockery of predictions based on a decade or two of data. I see nice slides that take a perspective of 50-1000 years of interesting and relevant historical data and that allow us to project further into our 21st century that the World Bank data.

What can we learn from infant mortality? Raising GNP per capita does not necessarily decrease infant mortality. Why growth charts are more reliable than GNP / cap.

What would be better indicators??

Moving forward with GHEC

“Enough: Why the World's Poorest Starve in an Age of Plenty”

Thurow's talk on this title

Review:

Movie

March 2, 2010

A talk by journalist and author Roger Thurow.

For more than thirty years, humankind has known how to grow enough food to end chronic hunger worldwide. Yet while the "Green Revolution" succeeded in South America and Asia, it never got to Africa. Now, an impending global food crisis threatens to make things worse. In the west we think of famine as a natural disaster, brought about by drought; or as the legacy of brutal dictators. But in this powerful investigative narrative, Roger Thurow and Scott Kilman argue that in the past few decades, American, British, and European policies conspired to keep Africa hungry and unable to feed itself. As a new generation of activists work to keep famine from spreading, Enough sheds light on a humanitarian issue of utmost urgency.

Roger Thurow is Senior Fellow on Global Agriculture and Food Policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. He previously worked as a foreign correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, based in Europe and Africa. Thurow and agriculture reporter Scott Kilman produced a stream of page-one stories in the Journal that broke new ground in the understanding of famine and food aid. Their stories on three 2003 famines were a finalist for the 2004 Pulitzer Prize in international reporting.

From the World Beyond the Headlines lecture series. Cosponsored by the Program on the Global Environment.

/home/adavison/Dropbox/@GH/Ccgh20101029/ghCcghrMontreal201110219Brainstorming.docx2011-02-20: svd 3/2/2011 12:07:00 AM1/19/

A perspective on global health in the 21st century: a critique of optimism

Our view from NAm suffers from myopia and narcissism. We see the present as overwhelming, and ignore the lessons of history. Also we see our power, credibility aka influence as it once was, and the present is a shadow of the past, and declining.

Recessions (every 30 years) delay development 3-5 years and a further 3 before the pre-recession state is resumed.

The global spike in energy scarcity and prices results from the avarice of the rich and the ability of economic hegemony to prevent adaptation to predictable consequences. Poor nations are not so wedded to oil or imports.

The increasing poverty of the very poor results from the hegemony, avarice, and callous disregard on the part of the rich. It results from deliberate policies, with consequences clearly forseeable. This greed is self-limiting. Increasing poverty of the poor limits the ability of the rich and powerful to extract resources and wealth from them.

Africa is a small fraction of the world's hungry where the suffering is the most extreme and salient, and the failures of convincing progress are the most alarming.

North America is not the world. It is decreasing it's economic aid while the EU is increasing their share. As a result, from once being the major source in absolute terms, now it is dwarfed by the EU. The EU growth may [calculate this] may compensate for the Nam shrinkage. And eventually, when the Nam fraction is miniscule, our reluctance to contribute will be inconsequential

Hunger is occupying a smaller fraction of the globe, and the resources to deliver to the problem are growing.

Overall the MDGs will be met, perhaps a decade or two late late

Unknowns, India and China Credibility, know-how. Will power corrupt them? Dunno

NATO will the accept graciously their decline in economic and political power? They will remain militarily dominant for decades. Will their drones continue to roam the world assassinating leaders and followers, bombing nations “back into the stone age” for resisting measure to continue the flow of wealth from the poor to the rich? Dunno

Is progress toward MDG1 derailed by the growing gap between rich & poor? No!

Facts and fallacies

Reference from editor of China magazine

Start with the increase in global wealth. Contrast with global health!

Washingon DC should be ashamed – graph infant mortality vs (say) Cuba, Syria

In the global village, should not the rich nations of NAm, W Europe, and East Asia be ashamed

How to measure the dispossession of the poor? Infant mortality

Economic imbalance brings crisis. What about the global, national, and community imbalances in wealth. If the world's economic strength of the rich depends on continued transfer of wealth from the ppor, how long before it collapses under its own weight?

For info from the viewpoint of the South

Chopra slides (does he want to publish?)

African Poverty is Falling...Much Faster than You Think!

Xavier Sala-i-Martin,Maxim Pinkovskiy

Critique of Pinkowskiy African poverty is falling – do we dare believe it?

Comment on Pinkowskiy

Slogans and headings

Without good information, we cannot make good decisions

Misinformation on the roadmap to making hunger history

Discovering where we are on the roadmap to a world without hunger

Are the road-signs smoke and mirrors? Have the numbers misled us?

Do numbers tell lies, or is someone deliberately misleading us? Would anyone sabotage the effort to eliminate hunger? Who benefits from the status quo? Are their entities that seek to destabilize governments that take a stand against unfettered free trade? That seek to put an end to the flow of wealth from poor to rich? That are arrogant enough to believe that they should own and control the wealth underneath their soil that we have paper to show belongs to us? We who bought the whole of north America for a bag of beans and some axe heads?