1 Intelligent Well Technology: Status and Opportunities for Developing Marginal Reserves SPE
Beyond Commodity Markets – Emerging Issues in Canadian Industrial Energy Use
Ken Newel, National Energy Board, (403)-299-3146,
Overview
The resource and manufacting industries are the backbone of Canada’s economic well-being. With an enviable list of raw resource opportunities and a high concentration of energy intensive industries, Canada is likely to remain one of the highest per capita energy users in the world. The Canadian resource endownment brings with it a unique set of circumstances that complicate goals of sustainability. A frequently cited example is the growing unconventional oil and gas extraction in western Canada and its implications on energy use, GHG emissions, and trade revenue. However, the industrial sector in Canada is extremely diverse and full of counteracting influences. Industrial energy use accounts for almost half of all energy demand in Canada. Small changes in activity translate into large changes in national energy and emissions profiles. This paper explores where change is coming from in the sector and how it might influence energy demand in Canada.
This information is an integral part of the macro analysis for the National Energy Board’s supply and demand modelling in its Energy Future reports. As part of the Board’s broader mandate of pursueing a sustainable energy future and engaging Canadians, it is necessary to explore fundamental assumptions behind the demand drivers. This approach acknowledges uncertainties, but also highlightsoptions and opportunities that could a be significant factors in bringing about important changes in industrial demand patterns. This descriptive and qualative review is based on the following forces of change:
-Structural change in the Canadian economy,
-Structural change in the global economy,
-Transformative technology issues,
-Climate change regulations.
The paper is organized as follows. After the introduction, the second section gives an overview of the historical industrial demand and energy demand forecast based onthe previous energy futures modeling.The third section discusses structural change in the economy and implications for energy demand. The fourth section considers potentially transformatative technologies and their implications on industrial energy use. The fith section reviews major industries output in the context of climate change regulations. Some concluding remarks follow.
Methods
The impact of the emerging issues are analyzed and discussed in the context of the Boards previously released Energy Futures reports, including the2009 Reference Case Scenario (2009) and Canada’s Energy Future (2007). And in relation to the Board’s most recent modelling work exploring transformative change in energy systems. Supporting economic and environmental data is mostly drawn from other federal government departments, mainly Statistics Canada and Environment Canada.
Results
First, evidence suggests that Canada’s goods and manufacturing section, although much smaller in terms of GDP than the service sector, will continue to play a pivitol role in Canada’s overall energy use and emissions profile.
Second, that major change in energy consumption within the industrial sector is possible if market conditions were in place to channel the necessary investment in transformative technologies.
Third, Canada’s emissions intensity should continue to improve due to both growth in the service sector and technology change in manufacturing and resource extraction.
Conclusions
Although the Canadian economy (and identity) is often defined by our resources and heavy industries, the statistics reveal a much more complex and diverse structure. Since the industrial sector dominates energy use and emissions, a closer look at the make-up and trends of this sector are necessary for interpreting energy use in Canada. Results indicate that transitioning this sector is possible, butwould require concerted efforts at all levels and extensive investment. In addition, how Canadian industries position themselves in the global economy is fundamental to the energy and emssions profile.
Key References
Environment Canada (2010). Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Overview of 2008 Facility Greenhouse Gas Data,, March 2010,
International Energy Agency, Tracking Industrial Energy Efficiency and GHG Reductions- in Support of the G8 Plan of Action, IEA,2007
National Energy Board (2007). Canada’s Energy Future: Reference Case and Scenarios
to 2030, November 2007,
rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/nrgyftr/2007/nrgyftr2007-eng.pdf
National Energy Board (2009). 2009 Reference Case Scenario: Canadian Energy
Demand and Supply to 2020, July 2009,
rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/nrgyftr/2009/rfrnccsscnr2009-eng.pdf
Statistics Canada (2010). Gross Domestic Product, Summary Exports of Goods,