Bangalore Elecrticty Supply Company Load Forecast & Sales Forecast

BANGALORE ELECRTICTY SUPPLY COMPANY LOAD FORECAST & SALES FORECAST

CHAPTER – 4

LOAD FORECAST& SALES FORECAST

Load Forecast

Introduction:

The Commission has issued guidelines for preparation of Load Forecast, Power Procurement Plan & Power Procurement procedure through regulations:

• KERC (Conditions of License for ESCOMs) Regulations, 2004 dated 28.0.2004
• KERC (Load Forecast) Regulations, 2009 dated 02.04.2009

As per the Technical Conditions prescribed by the Commission under Chapter III of the first regulation,

The Licensee shall on an annual basis:

(a)forecast the demand for electricity within the Area of Supply in each of the next succeeding 10 years;

(b)prepare and submit such forecasts to the Commission in accordance with the guidelines issued by the Commission from time to time; and

(c)Co-operate with the STU in the preparation of electricity demand forecasts for the state of Karnataka.

The Commission vide above Load Forecast regulations has directed the Distribution Licensees to follow the Forecast methodology adopted by CEA from time to time, so as to have a consistent methodology. Further, it is also stated that the forecast as per the latest available EPS (Electric Power Survey of India), under fulfillment of CEA’s obligation under Section 73(a) of Electricity Act, 2003 would be the reference point.

The latest available CEA forecast is 18th EPS.

Energy /Demand requirement of BESCOM constitutes approximately 50% of the Karnataka State Energy/Demand requirement. Bangalore urban alone constitutes 50% of Energy/Demand requirement of BESCOM. Hence, Bangalore Urban alone constitutes 25% of the total State Energy /Demand requirement.

BESCOM in its Tariff filing for the 3rd control period i.e., FY-14 to FY-16, had projected the energy forecast up to 2020 under different scenarios.

M/s. Power Research and Development Consultants (PRDC), Bangalore prepared the Load forest up to 2022on behalf of Karnataka Power Transmission Corporation Limited (KPTCL)

M/s. Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSSTP), Bangalore prepared “Karnataka’s Power Sector Roadmap for 2021-22” and submitted to Karnataka Electricity Regulatory Commission (KERC) during June 2013.

In the light of the above, an attempt was made to forecast the energy sales under the following different scenarios. The scenarios are:

1. Per capita consumption
2. 18th draft EPS
3. Circle wise energy sales
4. Karnataka Road Map 2021-22 by M/s CSSTP
5. Areal Load Dispatch Centre based projections
6. Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

Commission had directed BESCOM to furnish a) load forecasting rolling study, b) Perspective plan rolling study and c) Business plan rolling study on the 1st April of the year preceding the first year of the control period vide letter dated 26.03.2015 and 06.08.2015. In this context, BESCOM submitted the said details to the Commission on 17.08.2015.Commission in its letter dated 6.11.2015 had made observations on the report.

The Commission’s observations and BESCOM’s replies regarding load forecasting are as under:

1. Commission has named 8 methodologies for carrying out load forecasting and has stated that these are the appropriate methods. BESCOM has knowledge of the methods stated by the Commission. All the methods stated by the Commission have empirical formula and the projections will be based on these formulas. It is pertinent to state here that the growth rate of consumption in categories such as LT5 and HT industrial and HT commercial categories are moving in the negative trend. In certain other categories there is increase in consumption especially for agricultural consumers. BESCOM has analyzed its sales growth rate based on the historical data available from 2004 onwards and then made its projections. After all this, BESCOM has considered those methodologies which suits its load forecast and projected for the future years.

1. BESCOM had provisional figures of FY-15 for preparing load forecast studies. With FY-15 as base year, CAGR for 10 years were calculated. BESCOM has considered more than 10years data to project the sales as per CAGR method. It has also given correction factor to the required categories as and when required. The 10 years CAGR percentage arrived for load forecasting is shown in the table below:

Table No: 4.1

Tariff category / CAGR 10yrs / CAGR 9yrs / CAGR 8yrs / CAGR 7yrs / CAGR 6yrs / CAGR 5yrs / CAGR 4yrs / CAGR 3yrs / CAGR 2yrs / CAGR 1yr
LT-1 / -0.2% / 0.8% / 0.3% / -2.1% / -5.2% / -5.6% / 12.2% / 15.1% / 16.4% / 35.4%
LT-2(a) / 9.1% / 8.9% / 8.4% / 8.2% / 8.1% / 10.4% / 7.6% / 7.5% / 6.7% / 13.9%
LT-2(b) / 10.4% / 8.2% / 6.8% / 5.8% / 6.3% / 6.6% / 6.6% / -3.6% / 3.6% / 7.4%
LT-3 / 11.4% / 10.7% / 10.0% / 9.4% / 9.6% / 9.9% / 8.5% / 7.3% / 5.8% / 11.9%
LT-4(a) / 5.2% / 8.2% / 5.0% / 7.2% / 6.3% / 6.4% / 7.0% / 3.1% / 1.2% / 2.5%
LT-4( b ) / 20.1% / 22.4% / 18.4% / 6.2% / 2.2% / 2.0% / -5.9% / -7.0% / -4.6% / -9.0%
LT-4(c) / 14.0% / 14.0% / 13.7% / 8.2% / 11.7% / 6.6% / 4.8% / -0.8% / -7.3% / -14.1%
LT-5 / 2.6% / 2.5% / 2.3% / 2.4% / 3.7% / 4.4% / 3.4% / 2.7% / 0.2% / 0.5%
LT-6a(i)WR / 6.9% / 6.9% / 7.0% / 6.3% / 4.2% / 4.3% / 1.7% / -1.8% / -3.1% / -6.1%
LT-6a(ii)SL / 5.8% / 1.2% / 1.4% / 6.1% / 6.3% / 5.2% / 2.3% / -0.9% / -1.8% / -3.6%
LT-7 / 13.9% / 11.7% / 9.1% / 7.9% / 9.4% / 14.7% / 18.3% / 13.0% / 14.3% / 30.6%
LT Total / 6.9% / 7.8% / 6.3% / 7.2% / 6.9% / 7.8% / 6.9% / 4.9% / 3.5% / 7.2%
HT-1 / 4.4% / 4.3% / 4.2% / 5.3% / 6.0% / 6.1% / 8.0% / 10.1% / 12.0% / 25.4%
HT-2(a) / 9.8% / 8.5% / 7.2% / 6.1% / 5.8% / 5.7% / 4.2% / 1.9% / -1.8% / -3.5%
HT-2(b) / 13.5% / 11.3% / 8.3% / 6.1% / 4.7% / 4.6% / 3.5% / 1.1% / -3.0% / -5.9%
HT-2©
HT-3(a) / 42.8% / 53.3% / 71.0% / 83.2% / 84.9% / 91.4% / 115.7% / 81.1% / 77.0% / 213.4%
HT3 (b) / 8.2% / 0.7% / 8.9% / -0.4% / -17.4% / 9.8% / -14.3% / 2.0% / 4.1%
HT-4 / 6.1% / 5.9% / 4.2% / 5.2% / 6.1% / 6.2% / 4.5% / 2.2% / 2.5% / 5.0%
HT-5 / 258.8%
HT TOTAL / 10.8% / 9.6% / 8.0% / 6.9% / 6.4% / 6.6% / 5.8% / 4.1% / 1.5% / 2.9%
TOTAL / 8.1% / 8.4% / 6.9% / 7.1% / 6.7% / 7.4% / 6.5% / 4.6% / 2.8% / 5.6%

1. BESCOM while zeroing on CAGR method has stated that the State is still reeling under unrestricted power supply condition. With the present restrictions such as corridor problem, generators not supplying energy within the allocated commissioning date etc., load forecast is projected under unrestricted load growth.

1. Computation of peak load projections. – BESCOM concurs with the Hon’ble Commission views and has noted the point. However, actuals of the past years are placed on record. Ratio of average MW is at 74% of the peak load recorded. Hence same is considered for the projections.

Table No: 4.2

Year / Energy @ Generation Point In MU / Average MW calculated / Peak load recorded in MW / Ratio of Average MW to the peak load recorded
FY-13 / 27834 / 3177 / 4144 / 76.66%
FY-14 / 27928 / 3188 / 4321 / 73.77%
FY-15 / 29423 / 3359 / 4639 / 72.40%

Load forecast from FY-17 upto FY-21 was projected by BESCOM considering provisional FY15 figures.

Sales projection for 4th control period:

Since, FY15 figures are presently finalized the same is considered. Half yearly sales of FY16 (upto Sept15) are reckoned and the sales doubled for arriving at the full year figures for FY16, which works out to 25,238 MU. The sales of 25,238 MU for FY16 indicate a percentage growth of 3.3% over FY15.

The sales under BJ/KJ and IP set are altered slightly. The same is illustrated during each category wise briefing. With these changes the year wise CAGRs are worked

The CAGRs worked out for 10 years, 9years, 8 years, 7years, 6 years, 5 years, 4 years, 3 years, 2 years and 1 year is depicted in the table below:

Table No: 4.3

Tariff category / CAGR 10yrs / CAGR 9yrs / CAGR 8yrs / CAGR 7yrs / CAGR 6yrs / CAGR 5yrs / CAGR 4yrs / CAGR 3yrs / CAGR 2yrs / CAGR 1yr
LT-1 / -3.6% / -4.5% / -7.1% / -10.3% / -11.5% / 0.4% / -0.5% / -4.5% / 2.8% / 1.0%
LT-2(a) / 8.9% / 8.5% / 8.3% / 8.2% / 10.1% / 7.9% / 7.8% / 7.5% / 8.3% / 7.5%
LT-2(b) / 8.9% / 7.7% / 7.0% / 7.6% / 8.0% / 8.3% / 0.9% / 7.5% / 8.5% / 4.7%
LT-3 / 10.6% / 9.9% / 9.4% / 9.6% / 9.9% / 8.7% / 7.9% / 7.1% / 8.5% / 8.7%
LT-4(a) / 8.8% / 5.9% / 8.0% / 7.3% / 7.6% / 8.4% / 5.7% / 5.3% / 13.0% / 12.8%
LT-4(b ) / 16.4% / 12.5% / 1.6% / -2.3% / -3.2% / -10.2% / -12.0% / -12.2% / -10.1% / 111.0%
LT-4(c) / 15.3% / 15.2% / 10.5% / 13.9% / 9.9% / 9.1% / 5.7% / 3.2% / 16.8% / -25.6%
LT-5 / 2.7% / 2.6% / 2.7% / 3.8% / 4.4% / 3.7% / 3.2% / 1.7% / 3.2% / 4.3%
LT-6WS / 5.6% / 5.5% / 4.8% / 2.8% / 2.6% / 0.3% / -2.7% / -3.8% / -6.0% / -4.2%
LT-6SL / 0.5% / 0.5% / 4.6% / 4.5% / 3.3% / 0.6% / -2.1% / -3.1% / -3.4% / -5.4%
LT-7 / 9.8% / 7.4% / 6.1% / 7.1% / 11.0% / 13.0% / 8.0% / 7.2% / 8.0% / -11.4%
LT Total / 8.0% / 6.7% / 7.5% / 7.3% / 8.1% / 7.4% / 6.0% / 5.5% / 8.9% / 8.5%
HT-1 / 4.1% / 4.0% / 4.9% / 5.5% / 5.4% / 6.8% / 8.1% / 8.6% / 4.6% / 0.9%
HT-2(a) / 7.7% / 6.4% / 5.4% / 5.1% / 4.9% / 3.6% / 1.6% / -0.9% / -4.2% / -2.0%
HT-2(b) / 10.3% / 7.6% / 5.6% / 4.3% / 4.2% / 3.2% / 1.4% / -1.3% / -1.1% / 0.0%
HT-2© / 62.6% / 25.2%
HT-3(a) / 52.7% / 68.2% / 78.3% / 79.1% / 83.3% / 100.0% / 72.1% / 66.7% / 141.5% / 196.1%
HT3 (b) / 7.9% / 1.1% / 8.4% / 0.3% / -14.0% / 8.8% / -9.8% / 3.0% / 40.3% / -31.7%
HT-4 / 3.2% / 1.4% / 1.9% / 2.2% / 1.6% / -0.6% / -3.4% / -5.1% / -3.2% / -19.2%
HT-5 / 53.3% / 24.5% / -74.5%
HT TOTAL / 8.5% / 7.0% / 5.9% / 5.4% / 5.4% / 4.5% / 3.0% / 0.9% / -1.2% / -2.8%
TOTAL / 8.2% / 6.8% / 6.9% / 6.6% / 7.1% / 6.4% / 5.0% / 3.8% / 5.2% / 4.4%

From the above CAGRs it can be seen that there is a range of growth rate from 3.8% to 8.2%. Out of which, BESCOM prefers to go with 4 year CAGR which has a growth rate of 5%.

The sale for the 4th control period has been finalized with certain correction factors as detailed below:

1. Actual category wise sales of FY-14 and FY-15 are considered for projections.
2. Half yearly sales i.e cumulative DCB of Sept-15 is considered.
3. In respect of BJ/KJ, no new schemes are announced by GoK. Hence the consumption of FY15 is retained for the future years.
4. Agriculture projections are based on specific consumption. Commission had approved 7795 units/IP/annum for FY16. But, BESCOM has considered the specific consumption of 8122 units/IP/annum for FY16, FY17, FY18 and FY19 for arriving at the agriculture consumption. BESCOM has considered an increase of 25,000 consumers for the second half of FY16. Upto Sept-15, 30,003 IP set installations are added. BESCOM has considered 30,000 consumers for each year of the control period i.e FY-17, FY-18 and FY-19.
5. In respect of LT4b, the 4 year CAGR is -12%. Hence, the sale for FY16 is retained for all the years of projection. The sale under this category is very miniscule and there is less impact on the total annual sales from this category.
6. The 4 year CAGR for LT6WS and LT6SL are -2.7% and -2.1%, Hence 5 years CAGR of 0.3% and 0.6% are deliberated.
7. For HT industrial and commercial consumers 4 year CAGR is considered for projections as there is decline in growth rate of these consumers in the recent years.
8. HT-2c categories a new tariff category. For HT2c, HT2b growth rate of 1.4% is considered (as it was billed under this category earlier).
9. In case of HT3a and HT3b the 4 year CAGR shows abnormal growth. The consumption under these categories is not major. Hence, no growth rate is considered.
10. In respect of HT4, the 4 year CAGR is -3.4%. Hence 6 years CAGR of 1.6% is deliberated.
11. HT5 categories a new tariff category. For HT5 category growth rate of LT7 category i.e8% is considered as it was part of LT7 category earlier.

The sales calculations for FY17, FY18 and FY19 are shown in the table below:

Table No: 4.4

Particulars / FY-15 / FY-16 (Upto Sept-15) / FY-16 / CAGR 4yrs / Correction factor / FY-16 corrected / FY-17 / FY-18 / FY-19
LT-1 / 53.5 / 65.59 / 131.17 / -0.5% / 0% / 54.00 / 54.0 / 54.0 / 54.0
LT-2(a) / 5760 / 3058.08 / 6116.16 / 7.8% / 7.8% / 6193.33 / 6679.4 / 7203.6 / 7768.9
LT-2(b) / 41 / 21.38 / 42.76 / 0.9% / 0.9% / 42.76 / 43.1 / 43.5 / 43.9
LT-3 / 1663 / 904.43 / 1808.85 / 7.9% / 7.9% / 1808.85 / 1952.2 / 2106.9 / 2273.9
LT-4(a) / 5930 / 3203.40 / 6406.80 / 5.7% / 8122.0 / 6688.64 / 6932.3 / 7176.0 / 7419.6
LT-4(b) / 1.87 / 1.97 / 3.95 / -12.0% / 0.0% / 3.95 / 3.9 / 3.9 / 3.9
LT-4( c ) / 6.58 / 2.45 / 4.89 / 5.7% / 5.7% / 4.89 / 5.2 / 5.5 / 5.8
LT-5 / 1134 / 591.30 / 1182.59 / 3.2% / 3.2% / 1182.59 / 1220.0 / 1258.6 / 1298.4
LT-6WS / 431 / 206.50 / 413.01 / -2.7% / 0.3% / 413.01 / 414.2 / 415.5 / 416.7
LT-6SL / 389 / 184.04 / 368.08 / -2.1% / 0.6% / 368.08 / 370.4 / 372.7 / 375.0
LT-7 / 194 / 86.10 / 172.19 / 8.0% / 8.0% / 172.19 / 185.9 / 200.8 / 216.8
LT Total / 15605 / 8325.23 / 16650.46 / 6.0% / 16932.30 / 17860.7 / 18840.9 / 19876.9
HT-1 / 664 / 334.99 / 669.98 / 8.1% / 8.1% / 669.98 / 724.0 / 782.3 / 845.4
HT-2(a) / 4750 / 2327.95 / 4655.91 / 1.6% / 1.6% / 4655.91 / 4732.0 / 4809.4 / 4888.0
HT-2(b) / 2796 / 1397.79 / 2795.59 / 1.4% / 1.4% / 2795.59 / 2834.0 / 2873.0 / 2912.5
HT-2© / 189 / 118.51 / 237.02 / 0.0% / 1.4% / 237.02 / 240.3 / 243.6 / 246.9
HT-3(a) / 18.0 / 26.59 / 53.17 / 72.1% / 0.0% / 53.17 / 53.2 / 53.2 / 53.2
HT3 (b) / 0.31 / 0.10 / 0.21 / -9.8% / 0.0% / 0.21 / 0.2 / 0.2 / 0.2
HT-4 / 127 / 51.42 / 102.85 / -3.4% / 1.6% / 102.85 / 104.5 / 106.2 / 107.9
HT-5 / 286 / 36.36 / 72.73 / 0.0% / 8.0% / 72.73 / 78.5 / 84.8 / 91.6
HT TOTAL / 8831 / 4294 / 8587 / 3.0% / 8587 / 8766.7 / 8952.7 / 9145.7
TOTAL / 24436 / 12619 / 25238 / 5.0% / 25519.76 / 26627.4 / 27793.5 / 29022.5

State Power sector being a sector with unwarrantable conditions, the distribution Companies are unable to forecast their energy demand accurately with the known factors. The Distribution companies are still learning to walk the tight rope and are striving hard to fulfill all the directives/Orders by the State Commission regarding load forecast.

There are number of methodologies available to project load forecast and BESCOM has also made use of a few methodologies to project its energy. The stakeholders during previous public hearing have questioned BESCOM’s projection computed only on the basis of CAGR method. Hence, BESCOM from its 3rd control period projection onwards has started estimating in other methods also. However, while projecting in different methods, BESCOM has noticed certain limitation s in other methods and opted CAGR method of projections with a few corrections in the present restricted condition were close to actuals .

The tariff policy envisages availability of electricity to different categories of consumers at reasonable rates for achieving the objective of rapid economic development of the country. But at the same time the Electricity Act recommends competition in the market. The norms for the distribution sector are more stringent. The distribution sector is also entrusted with the job of supplying power to subsidized categories with little support from the Government. Added to this the Open access/wheeling norms have also relaxed and the paying category of the consumer are reluctant to cross subsidize for the weaker section. These consumers are leaving BESCOM grid for procuring power through open access/wheeling. There is a large population of BESCOM consumers who are dependent on agriculture as their main occupation. These category of consumers along with the weaker section needs to be financially supported.

Due to the above reasons applying empirical formulas for load forecasting will not help in attainment of the desired results. Hence, BESCOM has maintained the CAGR method for its load forecasting.

Sales Forecast

As discussed supra, tariff wise energy sales and consumers projections are enumerated in the following paragraphs based on 4 year CAGR projections for 4thcontrol period i.e from FY-17 to FY-19.

The historical data of consumers and the consumption for the metered category is available for the past 10 years. It is found that the figures worked out for 4 year CAGR is consistent and the same has been reckoned for projecting the consumers and the consumption for the MYT control period for FY-17 to FY-19.

Consumer projection:

BESCOM has added approximately 5.5 lakhs consumers over the years from FY13 onwards. The Cumulative DCB of BESCOM upto Sept-15 depicts 94, 87,210 consumers. The difference of consumers between DCBs of FY15 and Sept-15 showsthat 4.91 lakh consumers areadded during the six months period which is on a higher side. This consumer addition does not commensurate with the previous year’s consumer addition.

Hence, the consumer for FY-16 is computed by adding the difference of the consumers between FY14 and FY15 to the figures of FY15.

The CAGR for 5 years, 4 years, 3 years, 2 years and 1 year is computed as illustrated in the table below:

Table No: 4.5

Consumer Category / As on 31.03.14 / As on 31.03.15 / As on Sept-15 / Difference / Estimation for FY16 / CAGR 5 years / CAGR 4 years / CAGR 3 years / CAGR 2 years / CAGR 1 year
LT 1(a) / 732030 / 769153 / 770982 / 1829 / 769153 / 2% / 2% / 2% / 3% / 0%
LT2 (a) / 6063236 / 6379067 / 6648913 / 269846 / 6694898 / 5% / 5% / 5% / 5% / 5%
LT2 (b) / 9665 / 10055 / 10908 / 853 / 10445 / 5% / -4% / 4% / 4% / 4%
LT3 / 824739 / 864600 / 923098 / 58498 / 904461 / 5% / 5% / 5% / 5% / 5%
LT4 (a) / 691785 / 768516 / 798519 / 30003 / 823519 / 6% / 7% / 8% / 9% / 7%
LT4 (c) / 511 / 638 / 661 / 23 / 765 / 11% / 13% / 17% / 22% / 20%
LT4 (d) / 1150 / 1315 / 1389 / 74 / 1480 / 12% / 13% / 11% / 13% / 13%
LT5 / 169289 / 175326 / 186102 / 10776 / 181363 / 4% / 4% / 4% / 4% / 3%
LT6 WS / 52310 / 58116 / 60502 / 2386 / 63922 / 10% / 10% / 10% / 11% / 10%
LT6 SL / 54504 / 57373 / 59351 / 1978 / 60242 / 5% / 5% / 5% / 5% / 5%
LT7 / 266465 / 348943 / 461968 / 113025 / 431421 / 30% / 30% / 35% / 27% / 24%
LT TOTAL / 8865684 / 9433102 / 9922393 / 489291 / 9941669 / 5.60% / 5.89% / 6.21% / 5.89% / 5.39%
HT1 / 160 / 186 / 197 / 11 / 212 / 12% / 12% / 13% / 15% / 14%
HT2 (a) / 4999 / 5414 / 6170 / 756 / 5829 / 8% / 8% / 8% / 8% / 8%
HT2 (b) / 4642 / 4893 / 5693 / 800 / 5144 / 7% / 6% / 5% / 5% / 5%
HT2 (c) / 278 / 380 / 506 / 126 / 482 / 32% / 27%
HT3 (a) / 20 / 27 / 22 / -5 / 22 / 5% / 1% / 2% / 5% / -19%
HT3 (b) / 3 / 2 / 10 / 8 / 10 / 27% / 26% / 49% / 83% / 400%
HT4 / 193 / 217 / 271 / 54 / 241 / 6% / 6% / 4% / 12% / 11%
HT5 / 297 / 493 / 196 / 594 / 99% / 100%
HT TOTAL / 10295 / 11416 / 13362 / 1946 / 12534 / 9.45% / 9.48% / 9.62% / 10.34% / 9.79%
TOTAL / 8875979 / 9444518 / 9935755 / 491237 / 9954203 / 5.61% / 5.90% / 6.21% / 5.90% / 5.40%

As already stated BESCOM has considered 4 year CAGR for its future consumer projections with certain deviation in a certain category of consumers. The deviations are:

• For LT2b, 3 years CAGR is considered
• For LT5, 1 year CAGR is considered
• For LT7, 1 year CAGR is considered
• For HT2c, the growth rate of HT2b is considered as this tariff category was chalked out of HT2b tariff category
• For HT3a and HT3b, no increase in number of installations is considered
• For HT5, the growth rate of LT7 is consideredi.e 24% as this tariff category was chalked out of LT7 tariff category.

With all the above correction the numbers arrived are depicted in the table below:

Table No: 4.6

Consumer Category / As on 31.03.17 / As on 31.03.18 / As on 31.03.19
LT 1(a) / 769153 / 769153 / 769153
LT2 (a) / 7056905 / 7438487 / 7840702
LT2 (b) / 10900 / 11374 / 11869
LT3 / 952569 / 1003235 / 1056596
LT4 (a) / 853519 / 883519 / 913519
LT4 (b) / 0 / 0 / 0
LT4 (c) / 863 / 973 / 1098
LT4 (d) / 1679 / 1905 / 2161
LT5 / 187608 / 194068 / 200750
LT6 (a)(i) WR / 70524 / 77808 / 85844
LT6 (a)(ii) SLR / 63179 / 66260 / 69491
LT7 / 533394 / 659470 / 815345
LT TOTAL / 10500293 / 11106252 / 11766529
HT1 / 238 / 268 / 301
HT2 (a) / 6296 / 6800 / 7345
HT2 (b) / 5446 / 5766 / 6105
HT2 (c) / 510 / 540 / 572
HT3 (a) / 22 / 22 / 22
HT3 (b) / 10 / 10 / 10
HT4 / 255 / 270 / 286
HT5 / 734 / 908 / 1123
HT TOTAL / 13512 / 14585 / 15764
TOTAL / 10513805 / 11120836 / 11782293

The tariff category wise details are stated below:

1. LT 1 Installations:

Growth of consumers and consumption

Table No: 4.7

PARTICULARS / FY-17 / FY-18 / FY-19
Consumers (Nos.) / 769153 / 769153 / 769153
Consumption (MU) / 54.00 / 54.00 / 54.00

The number of installations based on DCB figures for FY-15 is 769153. For FY-16, 769153 consumers are retained as the half yearly figures are 770982. Since, no installations are serviced under RGGVY 12th plan the number of installations for FY15 are retained for FY-16, FY-17, FY-18 and FY-19. Any new additions under RGGVY 12th plan in this tariff the same will be intimated to the Commission

The energy sales for FY15 under this category are 53.45 MU based on actual. For FY-16, consumption of 131.17 MU is computed based on half yearly figures. This consumption also consists of sales above 18 units. Since, BESCOM has not proposed any increase in consumers under this tariff, the sales under this tariff is also retained as 54 MU for FY16 and each year of the 4thcontrol period as shown in the above table.

However, if the Government introduces any new schemes during the Control Period, the same will be brought to the kind notice of the Hon'ble Commission during Annual Performance Review.

1. LT2a Installations:

Growth of consumers and consumption

Table No: 4.8

PARTICULARS / FY-17 / FY-18 / FY-19
Consumers (Nos.) / 7056905 / 7438487 / 7840702
Consumption (MU) / 6679.37 / 7203.552 / 7768.87

The number of installations based on DCB figures for FY-15 is 63, 79,067. For FY-16, 66, 94,898 consumers are calculated based on difference of FY15 and FY14 figures added to FY15 consumers. The half yearly figures are on the higher side as stated in the above paras. Hence, the same is corrected and FY16 figures are revised. The year-end figure for FY-17, FY-18 and FY-19 are based on 4 yr CAGR growth rate of 5%.

The energy sales for FY15 under this category are 5760.3 MU based on actual. For FY-16, consumption of 6116.16 MU is computed based on half yearly figures. To this figures the consumption above 18 units present in LT1 is added i.e 77.17 MU. Hence, the final sale for FY16 is 6193.33 MU. For FY-17, FY-18 and FY-19, 4 year CAGR at 7.8% is reckoned to arrive at the consumption.

1. LT2b Installations:

Growth of consumers and consumption

Table No: 4.9

PARTICULARS / FY-17 / FY-18 / FY-19
Consumers (Nos.) / 10900 / 11374 / 11869
Consumption (MU) / 43.12 / 43.12 / 43.12

The number of installations based on DCB figures for FY-15 is 10055. For FY-16, 10445 consumers are calculated based on difference of FY15 and FY14 figures added to FY15 consumers. The half yearly figures are on the higher side as stated in the above paras. Hence, the same is corrected and FY16 figures are revised. The year-end figure for FY-17, FY-18 and FY-19 are based on 3yr CAGR growth rate of 4% as 4 year CAGR is negative.

The energy sales for FY15 under this category are 40.83 MU based on actual. For FY-16, consumption of 42.76 MU is computed based on half yearly figures as stated above. For FY-17, FY-18 and FY-19, 4 year CAGR at 0.9% is reckoned to arrive at the consumption.

1. LT3 Installations:

Growth of consumers and consumption

Table No: 4.10

PARTICULARS / FY-17 / FY-18 / FY-19
Consumers (Nos.) / 952569 / 1003235 / 1056596
Consumption (MU) / 1952.2 / 2106.9 / 2273.87

The number of installations based on DCB figures for FY-15 is 864600. For FY-16, 904461 consumers are calculated based on difference of FY15 and FY14 figures added to FY15 consumers. The half yearly figures are on the higher side as stated in the above paras. Hence, the same is corrected and FY16 figures are revised. The year-end figure for FY-17, FY-18 and FY-19 are based on 4 year CAGR growth rate of 5%.

The energy sales for FY15 under this category are 1663.32 MU based on actual. For FY-16, consumption of 1808.8 MU is computed based on half yearly figures as stated above. For FY-17, FY-18 and FY-19, 4 year CAGR at 7.9% is reckoned to arrive at the consumption.

1. LT4b Installations:

Growth of consumers and consumption

Table No: 4.11

PARTICULARS / FY-17 / FY-18 / FY-19
Consumers (Nos.) / 863 / 973 / 1098
Consumption (MU) / 3.95 / 3.95 / 3.95

The number of installations based on DCB figures for FY-15 is 638. For FY-16, 765 consumers are calculated based on difference of FY15 and FY14 figures added to FY15 consumers. The half yearly figures are on the higher side as stated in the above paras. Hence, the same is corrected and FY16 figures are revised. The year-end figure for FY-17, FY-18 and FY-19 are based on 4 yr CAGR growth rate of 13%.

The energy sales for FY15 under this category are 1.87 MU based on actual. For FY-16, consumption of 3.95MU is computed based on half yearly figures as stated above. For FY-17, FY-18 and FY-19, 4 year CAGR is -12%. Hence, no growth is considered in this category and the sale of FY16 is retained for FY17, FY18 and FY19.

1. LT 4c Installations:

Growth of consumers and consumption

Table No: 4.12

PARTICULARS / FY-17 / FY-18 / FY-19
Consumers (Nos.) / 1679 / 1905 / 2161
Consumption (MU) / 4.89 / 5.17 / 5.47

The number of installations based on DCB figures for FY-15 is 1315. For FY-16, 1480 consumers are calculated based on difference of FY15 and FY14 figures added to FY15 consumers. The half yearly figures are on the higher side as stated in the above paras. The year-end figure for FY-17, FY-18 and FY-19 are based on 4 yr CAGR growth rate of 13%.

The energy sales for FY15 under this category are 6.58 MU based on actual. For FY-16, consumption of 4.89 MU is computed based on half yearly figures as stated above. For FY-17, FY-18 and FY-19, 4 year CAGR at 5.7% is reckoned to arrive at the consumption.

1. LT5 Installations:

Growth of consumers and consumption

Table No: 4.13

PARTICULARS / FY-17 / FY-18 / FY-19
Consumers (Nos.) / 187608 / 194068 / 200750
Consumption (MU) / 1220.00 / 1258.60 / 1298.41

The number of installations based on DCB figures for FY-15 is 175326. For FY-16, 181363 consumers are calculated based on difference of FY15 and FY14 figures added to FY15 consumers. The half yearly figures are on the higher side as stated in the above paras. The year-end figure for FY-17, FY-18 and FY-19 are based on 4 yr CAGR growth rate of 4%.

The energy sales for FY15 under this category are 1134.28 MU based on actual. For FY-16, consumption of 1182.59 MU is computed based on half yearly figures as stated above. For FY-17, FY-18 and FY-19, 4 year CAGR at 3.2% is reckoned to arrive at the consumption.

1. LT6 – Water Supply Installations:

Growth of consumers and consumption

Table No: 4.14

PARTICULARS / FY-17 / FY-18 / FY-19
Consumers (Nos.) / 70524 / 77808 / 85844
Consumption (MU) / 414.23 / 415.46 / 416.69

The number of installations based on DCB figures for FY-15 is 58116. For FY-16, 63922 consumers are calculated based on difference of FY15 and FY14 figures added to FY15 consumers. The half yearly figures are on the higher side as stated in the above paras. The year-end figure for FY-17, FY-18 and FY-19 are based on 4 yr CAGR growth rate of 10%.