Online Source1 to “Scenario analysis of the impacts of socioeconomic development on phosphorous export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed, China”
Authors: Ying Hou, Weiping Chen*, Yuehua Liao, Yueping Luo
* Corresponding author:
State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100085, Beijing, China
Email: , Tel.: ++86-(0)10-62843981
Submitted to Environmental Science and Pollution Research
Processes, data sources, and intermediate and final results of land use modelling
We used the Conversion of Land Use and Its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model (Verburg et al. 2002)to predict the land use distribution and generate the land use maps for 2020 for the Dongting Lake watershed and the Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone (DLEEZ) under the Business as Usual and DLEEZ Plan Implemented scenarios. The model integrates information on (1) land use demand, (2) spatial restriction, (3) land use conversion setting, and (4) land use location characteristics.
The demand on different land use types of the Dongting Lake watershed under the Business as Usual scenario was calculated as:
(1)
where, , and are the areas of land use type of the Dongting Lake watershed in 2020, 2010, and 2000, respectively. The areas of different land use types in 2010 and 2000 were generated from the land use raster maps for these two years, which were derived from the Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences(Ouyang et al. 2016). The land use demand of the DLEEZ under the DLEEZ Plan Implemented scenario was determined based on the land use targets described in Table 1 in the article.
Land use conversion elasticity indicates the difficulty of each land use type to transform to other types. In this study, the values of the conversion elasticity for the Dongting Lake watershed under the Business as Usual scenario were determined based on the probability transition matrix of land use between 2000 and 2010; For the DLEEZ under the DLEEZ Plan Implemented scenario, the elasticity values were determined based on the targets and planned policies for land use specified in the DLEEZ Plan. The CLUE-S model uses logistic regression and location characteristic factors (biophysical and socio-economic) to determine the preference for a specific type of land use. The biophysical factors included elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, and temperature; the socio-economic factors were distance to township, county, administrative village, and road, population density, and GDP. DEM data and grid data of average annual precipitation and temperature for 1981-2010 were used to generate spatial data for biophysical factors. In addition, shapefiles for towns, counties, administrative villages, and roads, and grid data for population density and GDP for 2010 were used to produce raster maps for socio-economic factors (For the data sources, see Table A6).
All spatial analyses were performed using the ArcGIS 10.0 software. The GIS grids were then exported in ASCII grid format for further analyses in the CLUE-S model. The logistic regression analysis with ASCII-format data was performed using SPSS 17.0. We set 2000 as the initial year and 2010 as the target year to test the accuracy of the CLUE-S modeling. The overall accuracy of modeling was over 95%, indicating that model is appropriate for the study area.The intermediate and final results of land use modeling are shown below:
Table A1Land use area in 2010 and demand in 2020 under the Business as Usual scenario in the Dongting Lake watershed (km2)
Land use classes / Paddy field / Dryland / Orchard / Woodland / Grassland / Urban area / Waterbody / Unused Land2010 / 40443 / 30162 / 2604 / 167654 / 7584 / 5397 / 7893 / 232
2020 / 39726 / 28616 / 2688 / 168185 / 7775 / 6758 / 7972 / 249
Table A2 Land use area in 2010 and demand in 2020 under the DLEEZ Plan Implemented scenario in the DLEEZ(km2)
Land use classes / Paddy field / Dryland / Orchard / Woodland / Grassland / Urban area / Waterbody / Unused Land2010 / 14307 / 12926 / 41 / 22048 / 233 / 2523 / 8390 / 31
2020 / 12892 / 11648 / 37 / 22385 / 210 / 5500 / 7800 / 28
Table A3 Land use conversion elasiticity for the Dongting Lake watershed and the DLEEZ under the Business as Usual and DLEEZ Plan Implemented scenarios, respectively
Paddy field / Dryland / Orchard / Woodland / Grassland / Urban area / Waterbody / Unused Land2010-2020 under the Business as Usual scenario / 0.5 / 0.3 / 0.9 / 0.4 / 0.7 / 0.8 / 0.8 / 0.9
2010-2020 under the DLEEZ Plan Implemented scenario / 0.4 / 0.3 / 0.5 / 0.8 / 0.4 / 0.9 / 0.6 / 0.4
Table A4 Beta values of significant location characteristic factors for logistic regression models associated with each land use type for the Dongting Lake watershed under the Business as Usual scenario.The logistic regression analysis was performed using SPSS 17.0.
Location characteristic factors / Paddy field / Dryland / Orchard / Woodland / Grassland / Urban area / Waterbody / Unused LandElevation / -1.82E-03 / -1.26E-03 / 6.18E-04 / 1.96E-03 / 2.02E-03 / -1.44E-03 / -1.03E-02 / ns
Slope / -1.48E-01 / -9.64E-02 / -1.08E-01 / 1.64E-01 / 1.02E-02 / -7.69E-02 / 1.12E-01 / -1.19E-01
Aspect / 6.23E-04 / ns / ns / -5.40E-04 / -2.07E-04 / 4.41E-04 / 1.27E-03 / ns
Distance to township_1a / -4.10E-05 / -4.50E-05 / -4.00E-05 / 4.87E-05 / -4.11E-05 / -5.82E-05 / 2.72E-05 / -8.43E-05
Distance to township_2b / 1.07E-05 / -8.60E-06 / -3.20E-05 / -1.16E-05 / -1.34E-05 / ns / -2.59E-05 / ns
Distance to administrative village / -7.05E-04 / -5.40E-04 / -2.37E-04 / 1.52E-04 / -7.78E-05 / -3.43E-04 / 9.30E-04 / ns
Population density in 2010 / -1.69E-05 / -2.95E-05 / -2.54E-05 / -1.22E-04 / -2.58E-05 / 1.60E-04 / 7.82E-06 / ns
Distance to road / -3.80E-05 / -1.76E-05 / 5.17E-05 / 3.48E-06 / 1.91E-05 / -2.15E-04 / 1.09E-04 / -9.59E-05
GDP in 2010 / ns / ns / ns / ns / ns / ns / ns / ns
Mean annual precipitation for 1981-2010 / 5.14E-04 / -5.25E-03 / -1.41E-03 / 3.48E-03 / -4.71E-03 / -1.56E-03 / -2.11E-03 / 3.41E-03
Mean annual temperature for 1981-2010 / 1.73E-01 / 1.05E-01 / 9.17E-01 / -1.40E-01 / 9.41E-02 / 8.07E-02 / -1.01E-01 / 1.53
Constant / -3.63 / 5.09 / -17.8 / -3.37 / 0.698 / -1.77 / 1.48 / -37.7
Area under the curve / 0.881 / 0.862 / 0.828 / 0.931 / 0.884 / 0.915 / 0.929 / 0.91
a, btownship_1 and township_2 denote “Zhen” and “Xiang”, respectively, which are both administrative units below county in China. Zhen is dominated by population with urban Hukou and Xiang is dominated by population with rural Hukou. ns means not statistically significant at the 0.001 level.
Table A5 Beta values of significant location characteristic factors for logistic regression models associated with each land use type for the DLEEZ under the DLEEZ Plan Implemented scenario. The logistic regression analysis was performed using SPSS 17.0.
Location characteristic factors / Paddy field / Dryland / Orchard / Woodland / Grassland / Urban area / Waterbody / Unused LandElevation / -1.75E-03 / 1.84E-04 / -4.05E-03 / 2.72E-03 / 3.39E-03 / -4.51E-03 / -4.11E-02 / ns
Slope / -1.51E-01 / -1.85E-01 / ns / 3.23E-01 / ns / -5.99E-02 / 6.45E-02 / ns
Aspect / 6.39E-04 / 2.69E-04 / 2.45E-03 / 2.23E-03 / ns / 1.29E-03 / -4.51E-03 / ns
Distance to township_1a / -1.79E-05 / ns / ns / -2.47E-05 / 3.89E-05 / -4.63E-05 / 2.57E-05 / ns
Distance to township_2b / 7.61E-06 / -1.65E-05 / -1.16E-04 / -8.30E-05 / 6.26E-05 / -1.71E-05 / 1.32E-05 / -5.98E-05
Distance to administrative village / -5.06E-04 / -5.75E-04 / ns / -6.51E-05 / ns / -2.21E-04 / 9.18E-04 / ns
Population density in 2010 / -7.56E-05 / -4.72E-05 / ns / -1.62E-04 / ns / 2.70E-04 / -4.22E-05 / 1.03E-04
Distance to road / -9.15E-05 / -8.86E-05 / ns / 4.56E-06 / ns / -3.11E-04 / 2.73E-04 / ns
GDP in 2010 / -6.85E-06 / -2.85E-05 / 5.01E-05 / -6.42E-05 / ns / 9.21E-05 / -1.86E-05 / ns
Mean annual precipitation for 1981-2010 / -1.82E-04 / -5.51E-03 / -4.70E-03 / 5.10E-03 / ns / -3.45E-03 / 3.63E-03 / 1.99E-03
Mean annual temperature for 1981-2010 / 1.55E-01 / 6.34E-01 / ns / -3.32E-01 / -2.59E-03 / 6.79E-02 / -2.26E-02 / ns
Constant / -2.17 / -3.34 / -0.766 / -3.31 / -8.19 / 0.775 / -5.64 / -11.3
Area under the curve / 0.874 / 0.899 / 0.866 / 0.979 / 0.908 / 0.922 / 0.952 / 0.797
a, btownship_1 and township_2 denote “Zhen” and “Xiang”, respectively, which are both administrative units below county in China. Zhen is dominated by population with urban Hukou and Xiang is dominated by population with rural Hukou. ns means not statistically significant at the 0.001 level.
Fig. A1 land use of the Dongting Lake watershed and the DLEEZ in 2000, 2010, and in 2020 under the Business as Usual and DLEEZ Plan Implemented scenarios. The land use status in the areas other than theDLEEZ on the map for the DLEEZ Plan Implemented scenario (d) is the same as on the map for the Business as Usual scenario (c)
Table A6 Data sources for location characteristic factors
Location characteristic factors / Data sourcesElevation / Obtained from DEM, Geospatial Data Cloud, (Accessed 12 April 2017)
Slope / Generated from DEM, Geospatial Data Cloud, (Accessed 12 April 2017)
Aspect / Generated from DEM, Geospatial Data Cloud, (Accessed 12 April 2017)
Distance to township_1 / Generated from vector data for the location of townships, National Geomatics Center of China, (Accessed 12 April 2017)
Distance to township_2 / Generated from vector data for the location of townships, National Geomatics Center of China, (Accessed 12 April 2017)
Distance to administrative village / Generated from vector data for the location of administrative villages, National Geomatics Center of China, (Accessed 12 April 2017)
Population density in 2010 / Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (RESDC), (Accessed 12 April 2017)
Distance to road / Generated from vector data of roads, National Geomatics Center of China, (Accessed 12 April 2017)
GDP in 2010 / Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (RESDC), (Accessed 12 April 2017)
Mean annual precipitation for 1981-2010 / China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, (Accessed 12 April 2017)
Mean annual temperature for 1981-2010 / China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, (Accessed 12 April 2017)
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