RA IV/HC-36/Doc. 9.2, P.1
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION______
RA IV HURRICANE COMMITTEE
THIRTY-SIXTH SESSION
CANCUN, MEXICO
7 TO 10 APRIL 2014 / RA IV/HC-36/Doc. 9.2
(08.IV.2014)
ITEM 9
Original: ENGLISH
HURRICANE COMMITTEE TASK TEAM
Reports on Tropical Cyclone Forecaster Competencies
Update: December 2013
(Submitted by the RA IV Task Team Leader)
,
1.0Summary and Purpose of Document
1.1This document was drafted by Regional Association (RAIV) Hurricane Committee Task Team on Tropical Forecaster Competencies as charged by the World Meteorological Organization RA IV (North America, Central America and the Caribbean) Sixteenth Session, Willemstad, Curaçao 12 to 19 April 2013. It seeks to outline standards and requirements of tropical cyclone competencies for use by RAIV. The document is largely based on practices as outlined using theapproach taken by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABoM), WMO Tropical Cyclone Competencies for Region V (Courtney et al) and solicited views of Members to suit the variations of RAIV.
1.2At an early meeting of the Task Team, It was recognized that differences existed between Members that must be identified early in the process. This led to a proposal that a framework be explored to deal with variations in activities and services, taking into account the necessary competencies needed and depending on the tasks each service will undertake.
1.3It was suggested that for RA IV, the NMHSs should be broken up into the following three categories:
1) Those suited with the necessary skills and equipment to provide guidance for other services to downscale. This was one of the primary roles of RSMC Miami.
2) Those that downscaled the guidance from the RSMC or other sources to tailor forecasts for their areas of responsibility. The role of most of the forecast offices in Region IV.
3) Those that work from forecasts provided by services that downscaled the guidance. In this case the primary role was the interpretation of the provided forecast for use in an advisory capacity to the emergency services, local media etc. Primarily non-forecast offices.
1.4As with tropical cyclone competencies developed for other regions, these are intended to be a basic reference to facilitate discussions in order to further refine and develop WMO Tropical Cyclone Competencies for RAIV. These shall,after acceptance,be established as part of overall WMO Competency Standards. The competencies relate to a trained forecaster, to include at a minimum: Meteorologist (a person who has successfully completed the Basic Instruction Package for Meteorologists (BIP-M) requirements at university degree-level.) and Meteorological Technician (a person who has successfully completed the Basic Instruction Package for Meteorological Technicians (BIP-MT) requirements).
1.5Thetropical cyclone competency approach is essential for defining what is required to do the job, in order to develop the most appropriate training and to demonstrate that forecasters can do the job.
2.0Overview, Competency Requirements for a Tropical Cyclone Forecaster
2.1These competencies have been devised to be consistent with the actual work in TC Warning offices and other tropical cyclone services.
2.2As well as those listed under particular elements, the following are required:
- General weather forecasting and forecast preparation skills.
- General synoptic analysis techniques (including data limitations).
- Ability to analyse and synthesize a range of data types in order to apply relevant weighting to each data type where appropriate.
- Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) – interpretation of model output; knowledge of model strengths and limitations; and model comparisons.
2.3The document looks at the three units identified for Tropical Cyclone Forecast Services in RAIV. The first unit is applicable to forecasters working in a TC warning office (RSMC) at a senior or independent, unsupervised level providing a range of TC forecast services.
2.4The second applies to the support forecaster or a forecaster at an office where direction is received from the RSMC.
2.5The third is geared towards a forecaster in a non-forecast office who has to deliver and explain tropical cyclone information to authorities, the media and other agencies.
3.0Category 1. Forecasters providing guidance for other services to downscale
Unit Descriptor
3.1This competency unit is relevant to forecasters working in a TC warning office. It covers the provision of operational TC services at an unsupervised level. It includes:
- TC analysis and forecasting;
- determining the potential weather and storm tide impacts;
- formulating policy and issuing of products; and
- Communicating/delivering briefings, interviews and presentations.
3.2 Analyze broadscale environment and determine TC position, intensity and structure.
Description
3.2.1A range of observational information is analysed to interpret the broadscale environment, the position, intensity and structure of the tropical circulation.
Performance criteria
3.2.2 Analyzes the broadscale environment to assess the likely influence on the disturbance in a range of situations.
3.2.3Determines location of centre and current movement in accordance with standard procedures in a range of situations.
3.2.4Determines intensity in accordance with standard procedures in a range of situations.
3.2.5Determines structure in accordance with standard procedures in a range of situations.
3.2.6Background knowledge and skills
3.2.7Knowledge of:
- local cyclone policy and operating procedures;
- observation networks;
- capabilities and limitations of different observational data types;
- TC structure dynamics and conceptual models;
- synoptic factors that affect the intensity including shear, ocean temperatures, upper-level flow, stability, landfall, vorticity and low to mid-level moisture;
- strengths and limitations of Dvorak technique, ADT, AMSU intensity estimation, SATCON and other intensity analysis guidance;
3.2.8Skills in:
- using data viewing software and other applications in the forecast process;
- interpreting observations, weather radar and satellite derived information such as scatterometry and cloud drift winds;
- interpreting satellite imagery including water vapour, visible, infra-red, and microwave for TC analysis;
- using Dvorak technique for cyclone centre location and intensity estimation;
- estimating the intensity from a number of inputs;
- interpreting wind shear from shear analyses and prognoses;
- assessing the environment for motion and intensity changes;
- interpreting NWP guidance material;
3.3Forecast TC track, intensity and structure.
Description
3.3.1A range of information including numerical weather prediction NWP and objective aids in addition to an understanding of conceptual synoptic forecast approaches are used to forecast the track, intensity and structure in warning products that are issued in accordance with documented procedures.
Performance criteria
3.3.2Interprets NWP-predicted broadscale environment to assess the likely influence on the disturbance in a range of situations.
3.3.3Receives and Interprets and reconnaissance aircraft data.
3.3.4Determines forecast track in accordance with standard procedures in a range of situations.
3.3.5Determines forecast intensity in accordance with standard procedures in a range of situations.
3.3.6Determines forecast structure in accordance with procedures and timelines in a range of situations.
Background knowledge and skills
3.3.7Knowledge of:
- local cyclone policy and forecast process;
- Reconnaissance aircraft data (SFMR-Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, Flight level observations-winds-, Dropsonde data and radar).
- relative strengths and limitations of NWP in predicting cyclone movement, structure and intensity;
- synoptic factors that affect TC motion and intensity;
- consensus track forecasting techniques;
- Intensity forecasting methods including conceptual models of decay;
3.3.8Skills in:
- evaluating model predictions against observed conditions to assess the most likely forecast environment for motion and intensity changes;
- Understanding and Interpreting reconnaissance aircraft data
- interpreting NWP guidance material including ensemble output to determine forecast uncertainty;
- using software systems to determine forecast parameters;
3 .4Determine potential weather impacts on at risks areas
Description
3.4.1The impacts of high winds, rainfall, waves and storm surge are determined for key locations according to appropriate thresholds and including estimates of uncertainty.
Performance criteria
3.4.2Forecast extent of cyclonic winds (e.g. gales, storm force) and onset times for key locations using available guidance in a range of situations.
3.4.3Forecast rainfall using available guidance in a range of situations and liaise with Hydrology to determine potential flooding.
3.4.4Forecast waves and swell using standard techniques.
3.4.5Forecast storm tide potential considering various track and intensity scenarios and confidence levels (worst case, most likely, alternate track/intensity).
Background knowledge and skills
3.4.6Knowledge of:
- local cyclone policy and operating procedures;
- potential impacts in a range of synoptic situations;
- wave and storm surge theory;
- local climatology of cyclogenesis;
- Storm tide theory and warning techniques;
- The level of threat posed by storm surge heights.
3.4.7Skills in:
- using software to determine range of impacts;
- interpreting NWP guidance material;
- assessing rainfall potential including eTRaP, consensus model guidance (OCF, PME) and probabilistic rainfall guidance;
- determining onset, extent and associated uncertainties of weather phenomena;
- storm surge forecasting;
3.5 Formulate policy and issue TC products.
Description
3.5.1Local forecast production systems are used to produce and disseminate a range of products according to local operating procedures.
Performance criteria
3.5.2Liaise effectively with internal staff in the development of tropical cyclone policy and the impact on other services.
3.5.3Formulates TC policy in accordance with procedures in a range of situations.
3.5.4Determines the appropriate key messages for general and technical audiences in a range of situations.
3.5.5Issues the range of TC products in accordance with procedures and timelines in a range of situations.
Background knowledge and skills
3.5.6Knowledge of:
- local cyclone policy and operating procedures;
- user needs and significant impact thresholds;
- product styles and standards;
3.5.7Skills in:
- using appropriate software to produce warning products;
- communicating with colleagues to arrive at policy decisions;
- internal time management to produce the range of products on time;
- compiling policy, products and key messages for different audiences;
- converting technical concepts into concise and easy to understand language;
3.6 Communicate relevant TC information to internal and external stakeholders.
Description
3.6.1Forecasters are required to communicate information to internal and external users appropriate to their needs.
Performance criteria
3.6.2Logically structures briefings and presentations to contain relevant, accurate and complete information.
3.6.3Delivers briefings, presentations and interviews to suit the intended audience explaining technical information in concise, clear and easy to understand language.
Background knowledge and skills
3.6.4Knowledge of:
- principles of effective communication, including presentation and interviews;
- presentation and meeting formats and requirements;
- Legislation, regulations, policies, procedures and guidelines relating to workplace communication in the public sector such as privacy, confidentiality, freedom of information.
3.6.5Skills in:
- compiling policy, products and key messages for different audiences;
- converting technical concepts into concise and easy to understand language;
- facilitating and engaging in communication exchanges;
- Using equipment for presentations.
4.0 Category 2. Forecasters who downscale the guidance from the RSMC or other sources to tailor forecasts for their areas of responsibility
Unit Descriptor
4.1This competency unit is relevant to forecasters working either under the supervision of a senior forecaster or in a forecasting office that receives guidance from an RSMC. It includes:
- Accessing and interpretation of TC products and services;
- Understanding the forecast process and technical components of the forecast inputs (satellite interpretation (including Dvorak), Ascat, etc but is not expected to perform the technical analysis themselves;
- Using technical forecast to determine potential impacts;
- Formulating policy and producing local forecast products based on technical forecast from RSMC;
- Conducting briefings to local user groups -media & emergency services and provide TC information in response to enquiries
- Providing support to senior TC forecaster or feedback to RSMC as appropriate.
4.2 Access and interpret TC products and services.
Description
4.2.1Guidance products from RSMC and other agencies are appropriately accessed and interpreted. Technical information including satellite and other observational information are interpreted in the context of the guidance products.
Performance criteria
4.2.2Ability to access the range of appropriate information including forecasts from RSMC and other agencies.
4.2.3Ability to interpret technical forecast guidance in order to assess impact potential upon forecast region of responsibility.
4.2.4 Ability to interpret observational, reconnaissance and satellite and radar information appropriately.
Background knowledge and skills
4.2.5Knowledge of:
- local cyclone policy and operating procedures;
- observation networks for the area of responsibility;
- capabilities and limitations of different observational data types;
- TC structure dynamics and conceptual models;
- Reconnaissance aircraft data (SFMR-Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, Flight level observations-winds-, Dropsonde data and radar).
- synoptic factors that affect the intensity including shear, ocean temperatures, upper-level flow, stability, landfall, vorticity and low to mid-level moisture;
- strengths and limitations of Dvorak technique, ADT, AMSU intensity estimation, SATCON and other intensity analysis guidance;
4.2.6Skills in:
- Interpreting official forecast products from official agencies;
- using data viewing software and other applications in the forecast process;
- Interpreting reconnaissance aircraft data
- interpreting observations, weather radar, satellite and satellite- derived information at a general level;
- assessing the environment for impact on the TC at a general level;
- interpreting NWP guidance material;
4.3 Determine potential weather impacts on at risks areas
Description
4.3.1The impacts of high winds, rainfall, waves and storm surge are determined for key locations according to appropriate thresholds and including estimates of uncertainty.
Performance criteria
4.3.2Forecast extent of cyclonic winds (e.g. gales, storm force) and onset times for key locations using available guidance in a range of situations.
4.3.3Forecast rainfall using available guidance in a range of situations and liaise with Hydrology to determine potential flooding.
4.3.4Forecast waves and swell and storm tide potential using standard techniques and guidance material.
Background knowledge and skills
4.3.5Knowledge of:
- local cyclone policy and operating procedures;
- potential impacts in a range of synoptic situations;
- wave and storm surge theory and warning techniques;
- The level of threat posed by storm surge heights.
4.3.6Skills in:
- using software to determine range of impacts;
- interpreting RSMC/TCWC/NWP guidance material;
- determining onset, extent and associated uncertainties of weather phenomena;
- storm surge forecasting;
- Flood forecasting.
4.4 Formulate policy and issue forecast products
Description
4.4.1Local forecast production systems are used to produce and disseminate a range of products according to local operating procedures.
Performance criteria
4.4.2Liaise effectively with internal staff in the development of tropical cyclone policy and the impact on other services.
4.4.3Formulates policy in accordance with procedures in a range of situations.
4.4.4Determines the appropriate key messages for general and technical audiences in a range of situations.
4.4.5Issues the range of TC products in accordance with procedures and timelines in a range of situations.
Background knowledge and skills
4.4.6Knowledge of:
- local cyclone policy and operating procedures;
- user needs and significant impact thresholds;
- product styles and standards;
4.4.7Skills in:
- communicating with colleagues to arrive at policy decisions;
- using appropriate software to produce notification products;
- internal time management to produce the range of products on time;
- compiling policy, products and key messages for different audiences;
- converting technical concepts into concise and easy to understand language;
4.5Communicate relevant TC information to internal and external stakeholders.
Description
4.5.1Forecasters are required to communicate information to internal and external users appropriate to their needs including responding to enquiries.
Performance criteria
4.5.2Logically structures briefings and presentations to contain relevant, accurate and complete information.
4.5.3Delivers briefings, presentations and interviews to suit the intended audience explaining technical information in concise, clear and easy to understand language.
4.5.4Responds to requests for information appropriately.
Background knowledge and Skills
4.5.5Knowledge of:
- principles of effective communication, including presentation and interviews;
- presentation and meeting formats and requirements;
- Legislation, regulations, policies, procedures and guidelines relating to workplace communication in the public sector such as privacy, confidentiality, freedom of information.
4.5.6Skills in:
- compiling key messages for different audiences;
- converting technical concepts into concise and easy to understand language;
- facilitating and engaging in communication exchanges;
- Using audio/visual equipment for presentations.
5.0Category 3. Forecasters who worked from forecasts provided by other services. In this case the primary role is coordination with emergency services, local media etc (Non forecast offices in RA IV that has trained forecaster(s))
Unit Descriptor
5.1This competency unit is relevant to forecasters working in a non-forecasting office that receives information and guidance from a forecast office. It includes:
- Accesses and interprets TC products and services;
- Understands forecast process and technical components of the forecast inputs (satellite interpretation inc Dvorak), Ascat, etc but is not expected to perform the technical analysis themselves;
- Uses technical forecast to determine potential local impacts;
- Conducts briefings to local user groups -media & emergency services and provide TC information in response to enquiries
- Provide support and or feedback to Forecast Office as appropriate.
5.2Access and interpret TC products and services.
Description
5.2.1Guidance products from forecast office and other agencies are appropriately accessed and interpreted. Technical information including satellite and other observational information are interpreted in the context of the guidance products.
Performance criteria
5.2.2Access the range of appropriate information including forecasts from RSMC/TCWC and other agencies.
5.2.3Interpret technical forecast guidance to assess potential local impact.
5.2.4interpret observational and satellite information appropriately.
Background knowledge and skills
5.2.5Knowledge of:
- local cyclone policy and operating procedures;
- observation networks for the area of responsibility;
- capabilities and limitations of different observational data types;
- TC structure dynamics and conceptual models;
- synoptic factors that affect the intensity including shear, ocean temperatures, upper-level flow, stability, landfall, vorticity and low to mid-level moisture;
- strengths and limitations of Dvorak technique, ADT, AMSU intensity estimation, SATCON and other intensity analysis guidance;
5.2.6Skills in:
- Interpreting official forecast products from official agencies;
- using data viewing software and other applications in the forecast process;
- interpreting observations, weather radar, satellite and satellite- derived information at a general level;
- assessing the local environment for impact on the TC at a general level;
5.3 Determine potential weather impacts.