1
APPLICATIONS IN NATURAL RESOURCE ECONOMICS
By
GENEVIEVE BRIAND
A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment
of the requirement for the
Degree of
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
WASHINGTONSTATEUNIVERSITY
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics
December 2002
To the Faculty of WashingtonStateUniversity:
The members of the Committee appointed to examine the dissertation of GENEVIEVE BRIAND find it satisfactory and recommend that it be accepted.
Chair
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I would like to acknowledge the support and guidance I received from each member of my committee: Thomas Heckelei, Ron Mittelhammer, and in particular my advisor Scott Matulich. Without their expertise and energy, I would not have been able to bring this work to its conclusion.
I would also like to thank my best friend and life companion Daniel Bodtke for his patience and words of encouragement. Finally,I would like to thank my extended family and friends for holding on to the question "Are you done yet?"
APPLICATIONS IN NATURAL RESOURCE ECONOMICS
Abstract
by Geneviève Briand, Ph.D.
WashingtonStateUniversity
December 2002
Chair: Scott C. Matulich
The dissertation consists of three manuscripts concerned with the problem of allocating scarce natural resources. The first two pertain to the management of the Bering Sea crab stocks. The third deals with the allocation of water resources in the SnakeRiver basin.
Manuscript 1. Postseason commercial fisheries data are used to statistically estimate a catch per unit effort - soak time relationship for the 1991-1993 and 1996-1997 Bristol Bay red king crab fishery. The use of commercial fishery data allows the estimated relationships to reflect diverse and year-specific conditions that crabbers face. Deficiencies characteristic of commercial fishery data are dealt with by data pooling guided by recursive estimation/hypothesis testing.
Manuscript 2. Previously estimated catch per unit effort - soak time relationships are used in the simulation of the Bristol Bay red king crab fleet behavior. Vessels are modeled as maximizing profit, when there is an open access to the fishery. The simulation model is developed to address the effectiveness of pot limit regulations in slowing down the fishery and facilitating the management of its stocks. Results indicate that although pot limits can potentially elongate season lengths, their effectiveness in doing so is dependent on year-specific catch conditions. Ironically, the years that would need significant season elongations are the ones the least responsive to pot limits.
Manuscript 3. The listing of salmon as endangered species in the SnakeRiver Basin has resulted in salmon recovery proposals to augment stream flows in the Upper Snake River. Increased flows could be obtained from reducing irrigation water diversions. Positive Mathematical Programming models of the regional agricultural economy are developed to assess the economic impact of alternative proposed scenarios. A lower bound on the loss in value of irrigated production to the SnakeRiver Basin is estimated at 47.6 million dollars, while the upper bound is estimated at 93 million dollars. The loss of net revenue per acre-foot of water shortage would range from $6 to $10.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...... iii
ABSTRACT...... iv
LIST OF TABLES...... ix
LIST OF FIGURES...... x
CHAPTER
- GENERAL INTRODUCTION...... 1
Dissertation Format...... 1
General Introduction to Chapters 2 and 3...... 1
General Introduction to Chapter 4...... 3
- A CATCH PER UNIT EFFORT - SOAK TIME MODEL FOR THE BRISTOL BAY RED KING CRAB FISHERY, 1991-1997 6
Introduction...... 6
Methods...... 8
Model Specification...... 8
Data Considerations...... 12
Estimation...... 14
Results...... 18
Discussion...... 20
References...... 32
CHAPTERPage
- DID POT LIMITS ELONGATE SEASON LENGTH? A SIMULATION MODEL OF THE BRISTOL BAY RED KING CRAB FISHERY 34
Introduction...... 34
Methods...... 37
Simplified Optimization Model...... 39
The Fishing Process...... 40
Implications for Full Model Specification...... 41
Full Model Specification...... 44
Implementation...... 45
Results...... 47
Conclusion...... 54
Appendix 3.1: Full Model Specification...... 63
Appendix 3.2: Year-Specific Parameters...... 65
References...... 67
- AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF FLOW AUGMENTATION IN THE UPPERSNAKERIVER BASIN: AN APPLICATION OF PMP METHOD 68
Introduction...... 68
Flow Augmentation Scenarios...... 70
1427i and 1427r Scenarios...... 70
Priority Right Based Scenario...... 71
The Least Economic Cost Based Scenario...... 71
Economic Model...... 72
Calibration Model...... 73
Deriving Non-Linear Cost Function Parameters...... 75
Empirical Specification...... 79
CHAPTERPage
Results...... 80
Irrigation Water Diversion Reductions...... 81
Changes in Irrigated Acres and Value of Irrigated Production...... 82
BOR versus SRAM Estimates...... 82
BOR versus Alternative Scenarios Estimates...... 83
Value of Irrigation Water...... 85
Conclusion...... 86
Appendix 4.1: Calibration Model and PMP Models in GAMS Language...... 95
Appendix 4.2: Changes in Irrigated Acres per Crop as a Percentage of Total Change in Irrigated Acres per Region under each Flow Augmentation Scenario 100
References...... 102
LIST OF TABLES
TABLEPage
2.1 Initial Daily Observations, Illustrative Sample...... 24
2.2 Final Aggregated Observations, Illustrative Sample Based on Table 2.1...... 25
2.3 Soak-Time Frequency Distribution across Fishing Seasons...... 26
2.4Final Model (2.2.1) Specification and Estimates...... 27
2.5Model (2.3.2) Potential Restrictions...... 28
2.6Final Model (2.3.2) Specification and Estimates...... 29
3.1 Quasi Rent Function Parameters...... 56
3.2 Optimal Fishing Strategy and Performance for Small and Large Catchers, 1991 Calibrated CPUE Function 57
3.3 Simulated Year-Specific Season Lengths Under Alternative Pot Limits...... 58
3.4 Simulated Year-Specific Pots Fished Under Alternative Pot Limits...... 59
3.5 Simulated Year-Specific Catch Under Alternative Pot Limits...... 60
3.6 Simulated Year-Specific Quasi-Rents Under Alternative Pot Limits ...... 61
4.1 Irrigation Water Diversion Reductions...... 88
4.2 BOR versus SRAM Estimates...... 89
4.3 BOR versus Alternative Scenarios Estimates...... 90
4.4 Value of Irrigation Water...... 91
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGUREPage
2.1 Catch per Unit Effort-Soak Time Relationships: Model (3.2) Estimated at ....31
3.1Season Length: allocation of time to picking and setting pots...... 62
4.1Scenarios Linkages and Data Flow...... 91
4.2Water Flow Augmentation Sources within the SnakeRiver Basin...... 93
4.3Irrigated Agricultural Regions within the SnakeRiver Basin...... 94