ANNUAL JOINT WMO TECHNICAL PROGRESS REPORT ON THE GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTYING SYSTEM (GDPFS) INCLUDING NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) RESEARCH ACTIVITIES

  1. Summary of Highlights

i.Change the procedure of weather forecasting by using different weather indices

ii. Start to disseminate seasonal weather forecasts to interested parties

  1. Equipment in use at the Centre

MESSIR System for GTS, MM5 Cluster System, Central Operating System for AWS data, DMDD system, FYCast satellite imagery display

  1. Data Products from GTS in use

SYNOP Messages, SHIP Messages, TEMP Messages, METAR Messages, NWP CHARTS, SADIS Charts

  1. Forecasting system
  2. System run schedule and forecast ranges
  3. Medium range forecasting system ( 4-10 days)
  4. Data assimilation, objective analysis and initialization
  5. In operation - No
  6. Research performed in this field - No
  7. Model
  8. In operation - No
  9. Research performed in this field - No
  10. Operationally available Numerical weather Prediction NWP Products - No
  11. Operational techniques for application of NWP products (MOS, PPM, KF, Expert Systems etc.)
  12. In operation - No
  13. Research performed in this field - No
  14. Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (Number of members, initial state, perturbation method, model(s) and number of models used, perturbation of physics, post-processing: calculation of indices, clustering)
  15. In operation – No
  16. Research performed in this field - No
  17. Operationally available EPS Products – No

4.3Short-range forecasting system (0-72 hrs)

4.3.1Data assimilation, objective analysis and initialization

4.3.2.1In operation – No

4.3.2.2Research performed in this field – No

4.3.2Model

4.3.2.1In operation – No

4.3.2.2Research performed in this field – No

4.3.3Operationally available NWP products

4.3.4Operational techniques for application of NWP products (MOS, PPM, KF, Expert systems etc.)

4.3.4.1In operation – No

4.3.4.2Research performed in this field – No

4.3.4.3Ensemble Prediction System (Number of members, initial state, perturbation method, model(s) and number of models used, perturbation of physics, post-processing: calculation of indices, clustering)

4.3.4.4In operation- No

4.3.4.5Research performed in this field – No

4.3.4.6Operationally available EPS products - No

** Though the Department does not have a facility for data assimilation or data processing, department uses several outputs from the numerical models run by the other meteorological agencies for operational use

(Japan Meteorological Agency, NCEP, China Meteorological Administration, Indian Meteorological Department, NCMRWF etc.)

Wind charts at different levels, Temperature/Relative humidity at different levels , CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), LI(Lifting Index), SWEAT etc. are used for short range weather forecasting.**

4.4Nowcasting and Very ShortRange Forecasting System ( 0 – 6 hrs)

4.4.1Nowcasting System

4.4.1.1In operation - Yes, using AWS data and Satellite data (SATAID)

4.4.1.2Research performed in this field - no

4.4.2Models for Very Short-range Forecasting Systems

4.4.2.1In operation - no

4.4.2.2Research performed in this field - no

4.5Specialized numerical predictions (on sea waves, storm surge, sea ice, Marian pollution transport and weathering, tropical cyclones, air pollution transport and dispersion, solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, air quality forecasting, smoke, sand and dust etc.) Storm surge model developed by IITM is in operation.

4.5.1Assimilation of specific data, analysis and initialization (where applicable)

4.5.1.1In operation - No

4.5.1.2Research performed in this field –No

4.5.2Specific models (as appropriate related to 4.5)

4.5.2.1In operation - No

4.5.2.2Research performed - No

4.5.3Specific products operationally available

4.5.4Operational techniques for application of specialized numerical prediction products( MOS, PPM, KF, Expert Systems etc.) (as appropriate related to 4.5)

4.5.4.1In operation - No

4.5.4.2Research performed in this field - No

4.5.5Probabilistic Predictions (where applicable)

4.5.5.1In operation - No

4.5.5.2Research performed in this field - No

4.5.5.3Operationally available probabilistic prediction products - No

** Storm Surge Model is used.

4.6Extended range forecast (10 days to 30 days) ( Models, Ensembles, Methodology)

4.6.1In operation - No

4.6.2Research performed in this field - No

4.6.3Operationally available EPS products - No

4.7Long range forecast (30 days up to two years) (Models, Ensemble, Methodology)

4.7.1In operation – No

4.7.2Research performed in this field –Statistical down scaling using CPT

( Climate Predictability tool) and ITACS

4.7.3Operationally available products –

  1. Verification of prognostic products
  2. Annual verification summary-
  3. Research performed in this field
  1. Plans for the future (next 4 years)
  2. Development of GDPFS
  3. Major changes in the operational DPFS which are expected in the next year
  4. Major changes in the operational DPFS which are envisaged within the next 4 years

A project proposal is being considered for the next 3-5 years for:

  • Improvement to weather forecasting and early warning services in all time scales, Nowcasting (00-02hrs) to seasonal (01 month- 2 years), both timely and accurate, introducing Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) techniques
  • Establishment of quality network of observation sites in each District not hitherto represented, viz., Matale, Kegalle, Kalutara and Matara.
  • Establishment of an upper-air radar and radio-sonde observation station in strategic location of Pottuvil adjoining Bay of Bengal close to Equator where no observational data are available to entire meteorological community world over
  • Installation of a second Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) at Riverston in Matale to cover the entire island, supplementing the coverage of present DWR, to use in local data assimilation for NWP and as an additional tool in Nowcasting heavy rainfalls and lightning alerts
  • Installation of a HRPT satellite cloud receiver and processor to use in local data assimilation for NWP and as an additional tool in Nowcasting heavy rainfalls and lightning alerts

6.2Planned Research Activities in NWP. Nowcasting, Long-range Forecasting and Specialized Numerical Prediction

6.2.1Planned Research Activities in NWP –Run WRF model

6.2.2Planned Research Activities in Nowcasting –Install Doppler Radar in 2011

6.2.3Planned Research Activities in Long-range Forecasting –Continueresearch for seasonal forecasting using CPT and ITACS

6.2.4Planned Research Activities in Specialized Numerical Prediction : as in 6.1.2, NWP for medium range is planned to be developed with new proposals